am19psu Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 60% cherry upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 GFS has been really consistent over the past few days, not sure what the nam is on taking it up thru ga? Still think the eastern halves of sc/nc up th ec will see some good rainfall. ground has been saturated here in chas and more rainfall will mean some big flooding concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 60% cherry upcoming Recon mission upcoming this afternoon as well. The circulation is obviously still very broad, but is also likely closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Recon mission upcoming this afternoon as well. The circulation is obviously still very broad, but is also likely closed. Long range radar out of Key West shows very broad rotation http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=BYX&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Long range radar out of Key West shows very broad rotation http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=BYX&loop=yes Lowest pressures are displaced well W almost due S of the mouth of the Mississippi River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Ryan maue posted the ncep wrf 00z run and it really tightens up 91l prior to landfall around panama city, probably ts andrea at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Lowest pressures are displaced well W almost due S of the mouth of the Mississippi River Plane is now near semblance of a low level center well West of convection. Center used loosely. There is West to East cloud motion South of 'center', but it looks badly disorganized. My prediction: no upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Ryan maue posted the ncep wrf 00z run and it really tightens up 91l prior to landfall around panama city, probably ts andrea at landfall. 00z WRF ARW - http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/hrw-arw/00/hrw-arw_eus_042_sim_radar.gif 12z WRF ARW - http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/hrw-arw/12/hrw-arw_eus_030_sim_radar.gif The 12z NMM and ARW wrf runs are less bullish. I wouldn't put too much stock in the higher resolution guidance since much of the system is actually not contained within the inner nested domain, making it prone to downscaling errors with meteorological fields advecting in from some lower resolution analysis outside of the 4-km domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 The HRRR is loltastic right now with it initializing it as a moderately well organized tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 The HRRR is loltastic right now with it initializing it as a moderately well organized tropical storm. http://i43.tinypic.com/2u3w9s6.png Gotta love the HRRR's interpretations of tropical systems. I'm personally hoping this system doesn't cause too much flooding and/or tornadoes in the Tampa Bay area... my sister's baby is due June 19th and she certainly doesn't need any remotely additional stress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Not too shabby for June. I think that the new LLC will consolidate much closer to the convection within the next 24 hours. Already a decent signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Pressures falling and weak west-ish winds About 1004.8 mbs Expect 35-45 knot winds in that convection. Might classify it based on this 193000 2506N 08631W 9827 00193 0048 +231 +223 208028 030 024 000 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Not too shabby for June. I think that the new LLC will consolidate much closer to the convection within the next 24 hours. Already a decent signature. ScreenHunter_52 Jun. 05 15.34.png floater1_VIS_Sat-75471.gif I think recon and satellite are already showing evidence of a new llc developing much closer to the convection (25N 86W) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 47kt flight level (970mb) with 40kt on SFMR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 47kt flight level (970mb) with 40kt on SFMR And a large swath of 35 knot + SFMR obs with relatively little rain contamination (between 8-14 mm). I think recon will like to get another pass to make sure the circulation is completely closed off, but we very well might have Andrea on our hands. Maybe the HRRR wasn't so far off after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 And a large swath of 35 knot + SFMR obs with relatively little rain contamination (between 8-14 mm). I think recon will like to get another pass to make sure the circulation is completely closed off, but we very well might have Andrea on our hands. Maybe the HRRR wasn't so far off after all Recon did indeed just turn back towards where the circulation center would be, heading West along 26N right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Contaminated 54 knot surface winds New pressure/winds AL, 91, 2013060518, , BEST, 0, 253N, 866W, 35, 1006, DB, This next pass is 91L's last chance to get named before 5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 Hey, Josh! lookie here, I found a a TRIP OF A LIFE-TIME!...... The "Frying Pan Tower" is off the Cape Fear Coast... about some 45 miles.. This is just right up your ally.. HURRICANE TRIP: We will make this amazing trip very simple and straight forward. When a category 1 to 5 hurricane is coming by the Frying Pan Tower we will bring out adventurers who will be carried out and back by helicopter well in advance and after to live the life changing experience. It is a flat rate of $995 per person and may be a day or a week trip with limited communication and possible rationing of food stuffs required. If you are interested in this unique and possibly life threatening experience be aware that a liability release will be required and you may or may not survive the experience. All participants are required to make a full payment in advance may be 100% refunded if not used by 12/31/2013. Please let us know if you have any questions... If you need "info" I'll get it for ya... CT Ha ha ha, that's kinda awesome! I wonder if it's real. That tower got a really good wind measurement as Hurricane Gloria brushed the Outer Banks in 1985, by the way. (Random trivia for ya.) EDIT: This is wrong. I was thinking of Diamond Shoal Light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Ha ha ha, that's kinda awesome! I wonder if it's real. I seem to recall press coverage last year saying the tower had been acquired by a private party and would be prepped for tourism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 I think recon and satellite are already showing evidence of a new llc developing much closer to the convection (25N 86W) Yes, a center relocation is starting to become clear now, isn't it? It wasn't just in the HRRR either, the new ESRL RAPv2 clearly has the LLC much closer to the convection. But good to see some in-situ data confirming it. Ha ha ha, that's kinda awesome! I wonder if it's real. That tower got a really good wind measurement as Hurricane Gloria brushed the Outer Banks in 1985, by the way. (Random trivia for ya.) Stopping by for your own personal agenda without even noticing the rest of the conversation? (I know, it's loose as a goose for a tight core snob). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Could go either way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 Whatever happened to the good ol' days, when the season started with an Anita, Allen, or Andrew? Kinda gettin' tired of these crappycrap A storms. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 Stopping by for your own personal agenda without even noticing the rest of the conversation? (I know, it's loose as a goose for a tight core snob). Guilty as charged. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Wow, looks like we may have Andrea by tonight. If shear continues to relax we may get a decent ts before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Whatever happened to the good ol' days, when the season started with an Anita, Allen, or Andrew? Kinda gettin' tired of these crappycrap A storms. Just sayin'. They're forming earlier? For a tropical storm, Allison was ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 18z nam wraps up andrea pretty nicely up until landfall, first time it has shown significant organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Yes, a center relocation is starting to become clear now, isn't it? It wasn't just in the HRRR either, the new ESRL RAPv2 clearly has the LLC much closer to the convection. But good to see some in-situ data confirming it. Yes it is nice! It certainly seems like the big burst of convection overnight was able to create a few more mesovorticies, and it now appears the dominant vortex is becoming more established on the eastward side of the broad llc. Whatever happened to the good ol' days, when the season started with an Anita, Allen, or Andrew? Kinda gettin' tired of these crappycrap A storms. Just sayin'. How about you look at what dates those A named storms started Your not going to find too many June majors! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 How about you look at what dates those A named storms started Your not going to find too many June majors! I know. My point is that it seems these days like we're already on P by the time we really get into the meat of the season. P.S. Allen formed in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 I know. My point is that it seems these days like we're already on P by the time we really get into the meat of the season. It certainly seems that way. In terms of sheer numbers, the last three seasons combined represent the second most active three year period in Atlantic history (behind 2003-2004-2005... which was strongly influenced by the record named storms in 2005). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Pretty nice tropical wave out in the CATL Hopefully this is a sign of things to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.