The First Week of Jan..Bitter cold,Balls drop as we ring in 2013

[HoarfrostHubb]

That first half of December really set up that torch. The rest of the month was still warm

Hopefully Jan is AOB but I.doubt it.

[CoastalWx]

Just not sure what you're seeing.??

Modelling continues to back off warmup

What model is that?

[CoastalWx]

I wish they would back off.

[forkyfork]

this looks awful and there's no other way to spin it

[CoastalWx]

Just hope the GEFS are right. They still suck, just suck less.

[Mr Torchey]

I wish they would back off.

I see the talk about strat warming is back, something that consumed every debate last winter. So is this warming going to save late Jan and Feb from a full on torch?

[Brian5671]

What happened to the cold LOL?

Its 38 degrees at 835 am and everything is melting, huge departure today even though we were supposed to be 7 straight well below. ......okx has taken away all lows in the teens, and highs are now in the 30s.

Unbelievable, that was fast.

Flurries flying around out there this morning..Temps chilly with wind..Everything frozen solid..Arctic hounds bringing emperor of north today

LOL

[CoastalWx]

I see the talk about strat warming is back, something that consumed every debate last winter. So is this warming going to save late Jan and Feb from a full on torch?

I don't know....half that stuff is voodoo anyways. It depends where it sets up the blocking. It may work down eventually at some point....it is very strong as modeled and would think we see something. The end of January may be ok if we can get the Pacifix to look better, but I'll believe it inside 10 days.

I also think we may see some sort of mixed event of two after the 7th or 8th...perhaps before and after any warmup.

[Mr Torchey]

I don't know....half that stuff is voodoo anyways. It depends where it sets up the blocking. It may work down eventually at some point....it is very strong as modeled and would think we see something. The end of January may be ok if we can get the Pacifix to look better, but I'll believe it inside 10 days.

I also think we may see some sort of mixed event of two after the 7th or 8th...perhaps before and after any warmup.

I agree on all of the above especially the voodoo, especially after last year. I would think we should get some sort of Archie event as this trough lifts out in a week or so, hopefully we do even though it would usher in a warm regime.

[Allenson]

I was curious, looks like VT was an inferno just like the rest of new england in the first month of winter.

December montlies.

Burlington+5.0

Montpelier+3.8

St Johnsbury+4.9

Morrisville+4.8

Springfield+4.6

Plattsburgh+4.8

Had an average monthly temp of 26.4 at my location which is above normal for December, yes.

Finished the month with 27.2" of snow though which is quite respectable any year. Last year, I had only 11" for December, for comparison's sake. It took a while to come in but it seems to be here now.

[Mr Torchey]

Had an average monthly temp of 26.4 at my location which is above normal for December, yes.

Finished the month with 27.2" of snow though which is quite respectable any year. Last year, I had only 11" for December, for comparison's sake. It took a while to come in but it seems to be here now.

Being above normal is not such a bad thing, often times means you maybe in the battle zone and can equate to more snow:) Considering your climo, that snow will stick around too! Everything is relative.

[Allenson]

Being above normal is not such a bad thing, often times means you maybe in the battle zone and can equate to more snow:) Considering your climo, that snow will stick around too! Everything is relative.

Absolutely. A few degrees above normal at 1200' in central Vermont in the winter doesn't necessarly mean a driving rain. Elevation goes a long way during marginal systems, temp-wise.

Considering that I'm still a little under the weather (ha-ha) and my plowtruck is broken down at the moment, a little break in the action is actually welcomed.

If we can avoid any cutters, I don't see our pack going away anytime soon.

[ravensrule]

What model is that?

Kuro, it is never wrong. The NWS is thinking of using it to replace the GFS starting next winter.

[ORH_wxman]

Looks a little more promising for that event around the 6th-7th....perhaps something more after. Temps will prob be marginal, but the interior would certain have their shots.

Would be nice to get that PV to move a little more south near Hudson Bay.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I was curious, looks like VT was an inferno just like the rest of new england in the first month of winter.

December montlies.

Burlington+5.0

Montpelier+3.8

St Johnsbury+4.9

Morrisville+4.8

Springfield+4.6

Plattsburgh+4.8

Nothing is frozen here or in Maine. All the rivers are open as are some of the bigger ice fishing ponds on Rte 26. Crazy. Even at bretton woods there are some serious undercuts on the blue glade off two mile. Sunday river had a few spots too where the warmth had the water running under the snow.

[Damage In Tolland]

Looks a little more promising for that event around the 6th-7th....perhaps something more after. Temps will prob be marginal, but the interior would certain have their shots.

Would be nice to get that PV to move a little more south near Hudson Bay.

Yeah ..i just don't know exactly what some folks are seeing. Sure it's not a below normal or bitter pattern after this week..But there's certainly nothing signalling torch or anything like that.

It's winter,,we've got a boundary likely setting up to our south and hopefully a few waves can ride along that

[Clinch Leatherwood]

this looks awful and there's no other way to spin it

Barry Burbank did a great write up about the winter and he's been right on. I think anyone that thought winter was going to stick around for extended periods will be proven wrong. We will have our shots but we will be at the mercy of the pacific and will get shots of mild often.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah ..i just don't know exactly what some folks are seeing. Sure it's not a below normal or bitter pattern after this week..But there's certainly nothing signalling torch or anything like that.

It's winter,,we've got a boundary likely setting up to our south and hopefully a few waves can ride along that

There are a lot of signals for warmth in the 11-15 day. The next week is different..it will be chilly with hopefully a shot at something like we said. It's the period after that looks kind of ugly.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah ..i just don't know exactly what some folks are seeing. Sure it's not a below normal or bitter pattern after this week..But there's certainly nothing signalling torch or anything like that.

It's winter,,we've got a boundary likely setting up to our south and hopefully a few waves can ride along that

I could see us torching for a few days in there somewhere. Hopefully its not like that though...hard to predict it at this stage. Sometime's well end up with a whole bunch of 35/24 or 36/25 days which is a good 5 to 6F above climo....so it goes down as above average but doesn't really do any damage to snow pack and such...other times we'll get 3 or 4 days of upper 40s and maybe a day of 50F+ with rain from a cutter....thats the type of stuff that does damage to snow pack. Its impossible to say if that happens at this point.

You can't say we will avoid it though. Euro ensembles do hint at the possibility. I liked what the EPO was doing in the long range on the Euro ensembles, so hopefully that is a pattern we see come into fruition at some point beyond mid month.

[Damage In Tolland]

If this winter has proven one thing..it's that there is no accuracy in predicting the longer range. None..Noone has been able to do it this year. It's hard for anyone to put faith in any type of LR signal, whether it's warm or cold. If it warms up in days 11-15 into 50's and 60's..then we can say ok there was some accuracy.

[CoastalWx]

If this winter has proven one thing..it's that there is no accuracy in predicting the longer range. None..Noone has been able to do it this year. It's hard for anyone to put faith in any type of LR signal, whether it's warm or cold. If it warms up in days 11-15 into 50's and 60's..then we can say ok there was some accuracy.

Except every time the pattern has looked like crap..it has happened. Flags FTW.

The point is, do a dance, prayer...whatever all while nude and hope the boundary is south. All I'm saying is that prepare for a few to several days where it may be ugly. You always seem shell shocked when the pattern goes to crap, but if you prepare..it's no big deal.

[CoastalWx]

The GEFS at least try to give hope and limit the 11-15 day disaster. If they are right, it turns colder and stormier before mid month.

[Damage In Tolland]

Except every time the pattern has looked like crap..it has happened. Flags FTW.

The point is, do a dance, prayer...whatever all while nude and hope the boundary is south. All I'm saying is that prepare for a few to several days where it may be ugly. You always seem shell shocked when the pattern goes to crap, but if you prepare..it's no big deal.

I'm not saying it's not possible..just that it doesn't seem likely. If we roast..then I'll give you your due props..like I always do when you're right.

Until I see otherwise..I still think the worst we see is a few days into the 40's.

[CoastalWx]

I'm not saying it's not possible..just that it doesn't seem likely. If we roast..then I'll give you your due props..like I always do when you're right.

Until I see otherwise..I still think the worst we see is a few days into the 40's.

LOL, but I'm not saying we roast...it just could get very boring and mild for a time.

[codfishsnowman]

a few flurries this morning when i was walking the dogs...there is not all that much snow on the ground here but it sure is enough to look very cool

stil holding out hope for an 1888 or 1899 redux sometime this winter lol

[ORH_wxman]

Temp falling here now just below 30F after an early morning high of 32F.

[Logan11]

It's partly sunny with a few flurries here at noon and 23F. Not too much of a torch.

What happened to the cold LOL?

Its 38 degrees at 835 am and everything is melting, huge departure today even though we were supposed to be 7 straight well below. ......okx has taken away all lows in the teens, and highs are now in the 30s.

Unbelievable, that was fast.

[MarkO]

19.5/4 in Thornton. Snowpack about 10" deep.

[Mr Torchey]

39

cloudy

[Tropopause_Fold]

I'm not saying it's not possible..just that it doesn't seem likely. If we roast..then I'll give you your due props..like I always do when you're right.

Until I see otherwise..I still think the worst we see is a few days into the 40's.

A few days into the 40s is solidly above normal though for interior CT. And you know how the nights would go for higher elevated areas that don't radiate.