Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 shows up on the high res nest: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rloop.html Look at that banding, high winds in those bands mix down easy, more and extended power outages for the grid, not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Well the GFS is rolling, may be a telling run. Or maybe not until the global's come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GFS is a hair colder up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 850 inflow is great, but it needs to be moist and needs to be lifted. 50kts ripping from the east won't do much without a lifting mechanism. With what Steve said earlier, the air lifted off to the SW in NJ through frontogenesis and isentropic lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 This system is almost like a microcane on some of these solutions. Really compact circulation...which keeps the good dynamics pretty close to the center. I posted one of the Euro maps from the other day that indicated as much. Tight, warm circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 850 inflow is great, but it needs to be moist and needs to be lifted. 50kts ripping from the east won't do much without a lifting mechanism. With what Steve said earlier, the air lifted off to the SW in NJ through frontogenesis and isentropic lift. Tough forecast as modeling is having SW issues it seems, look forward to Messenger RAPping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I posted one of the Euro maps from the other day that indicated as much. Tight, warm circulation. What do you make of current WV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GFS more organized with a good band out in GC like we spoke about. Decent in central MA too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GFS much colder than NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GFS more organized with a good band out in GC like we spoke about. Decent in central MA too. EMA no dice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Much colder and snow here @03z thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GFS looks good to me, good precip and it looks like the entire column stays below freezing for a lot of places until hr 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 EMA no dice? 850 warms significantly after a possible front end thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 EMA no dice? Yeah GFS says a little snow away from the coast. But it's much better with the banding out in western NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 It's a decent hit for MPM actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I would take this run if it verified, Although i am skeptical right now until the global's come out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Yeah GFS says a little snow away from the coast. But it's much better with the banding out in western NE. mid-level features on that run would suggest maybe a decent band from the northern hills of NJ arcing NE through the S catskills then toward MRG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I would take this run if it verified, Although i am skeptical right now until the global's come out Global Forecast System? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 What do you make of current WV? Not watching for me it's rain regardless and I've been wetting a line most mornings. NAM though...hard to ride, Euro/GFS way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Congrats pete, MPM as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I would take this run if it verified, Although i am skeptical right now until the global's come out You surely mean the 'foreign' models right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Global Forecast System? we can kiss our snow goodbye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 mid-level features on that run would suggest maybe a decent band from the northern hills of NJ arcing NE through the S catskills then toward MRG Yeah that area could rack up a few inches maybe several inches. Elsewhere maybe 1-2 or 1-3 then a glaze into areas just west of BOS on this run. But I think I continue to favor wrn areas into NJ like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 GFS is a nice hit out this way with a nice deformation zone for W MA. It looks like > 0.5" of QPF on this run. Warmer air does get wrapped into the system overnight, but we would probably snow for several hours beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Global Forecast System? lol, The foreigners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Its funny to see the reactions in here after the NAM, and now the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Surge values have come back up to 3-5 feet from Montauk on West. Occlusion sometimes has isolated pockets of intense precip, could be some surprise dynamically induced spots of good snow. My thoughts are this is trending back deeper and further west. Best snows on front end. How this is evolving model wise has a very familiar ring to it. West east west, north south north,intense, meh intense. Just looking at a Messenger WV loop, bombing process might be further North and slower. Guessing 12Z models picking up on that now. Congrats Pete, Will Hunchie. One thing that seems odd to me is the intense 850 inflow void of decent dynamics. I know occlusion and all ala boxing day but yesterdays and last nights runs concentrated the dynamics in the SW quad. With this mornings runs beginning to reorientated the precip, wonder if that evolution continues where we end up with a comma head well north of the actual center as is usually the case. Also a coastal front, pretty strong at that would provide lift, pretty large thermal contrast. GFS more organized with a good band out in GC like we spoke about. Decent in central MA too. We have seen this before, let's see how the Euro handles the SWs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 You surely mean the 'foreign' models right? Yeah wrong word, Where is the rope and chair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 we can kiss our snow goodbye Never expected it, Pete, Brian, Hunchie, Will. We get wind and rain, bad news for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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