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Sandy/EC Discussion Part IV


andyhb

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No. You guys up there are in for a serious blow..Just like the rest of SNE. You have no idea how bad this could potentially be

You're a little closer to the action but MPM and I have 100 miles of CP and hills between us and the nearest ocean. That's serious buffer considering the center could be 300+ miles away.

Sure if the hit is just W of NYC we get some high winds but otherwise I'm expecting limited damage up here and unimpressive rains with the current forecast track.

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Huh? Why are you downplaying things? This is extremely serious

Because a track near ACY or even ctrl NJ will be pretty bad, but very bad for NYC. Especially surge. Winds will be like 50-70 over us with gusts to 80 I think on the south coast..maybe isolated higher. If it tracked near NYC like the GFS, it would be different.

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Noted the 5 am NHC advisory where north of the current TS warning area, they are having local offices issue Storm/High Wind warnings. Looking at the watches being issued by Mount Holly confirms this. A bit surprised, figured they would treat as tropical up until landfall.

all of the affected offices had a conference call with NHC at 4am, at which time everyone was released to issue their coordinated packages. That's why several offices issued afd's at 4am, and updated with details just a little while ago.

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Looks like i might take the brunt of this...

I think a track near ACY would be extremely bad NYC area on south and LI sound. Bad wind and surge. A track near Sandy Hook would be much worse further north and LI sound. It would be bad here, but not worse case. IFFF it tracked like that. It all depends hpw fast it turns.

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all of the affected offices had a conference call with NHC at 4am, at which time everyone was released to issue their coordinated packages. That's why several offices issued afd's at 4am, and updated with details just a little while ago.

From Mt Holly:

SANDY: FOR LATEST ADVISORIES/TRACK-INTENSITY/CONE OF WIND PROBABILITIES

AND EVENTUALLY PSURGE...PLS FOLLOW NHC PRODUCTS.

SINCE THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A PARTIAL TRANSITIONING TO A

POWERFUL EXTRA TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALL HAZARDS FOR THE MOUNT HOLLY

AREA WILL BE GENERATED USING STANDARD NON TROPICAL PROCEDURES.

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Stronger would support a "wagon's south" outcome, correct?

Mets correct me if I'm wrong...

My understanding is yes, stronger = further south track:

earlier baroclinic phasing --> faster deepening and sooner left hook

This also seems to be the correlation comparing landfall pressure and track between NOGAPS, Euro, and GFS.

From BOX disco yesterday:

FOCUSING ON LITERARY WORKS AND CLIMATOLOGICAL ANALYSIS...THERE IS A

DEPENDENCY ON WHETHER SANDY REMAINS TROPICAL OR EVOLVES INTO A POST-

TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS IS ANOTHER MAJOR UNCERTAINTY. MENTIONED IN

YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL SYSTEM /ESPECIALLY ONE THAT MOVES

FAST/ WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN CROSSING H5 HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES

RESULTING IN A LESSER CHANCE OF PHASING WITH BAROCLINIC SYSTEMS

THEREBY REMAINING DISTINCT AND TAKING MORE OF A N/W TRACK /DAISY

1962 AND JUAN 2003/...WHEREAS A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE THE

COMPLETE OPPOSITE /ESPECIALLY IF IT SLOWS/ HAVING A GREATER CHANCE

OF TRACKING LEFT /ESTHER 1961...MID-NOVEMBER UNNAMED SUB-TROPICAL

SYSTEM IN 1981/. IN SUCH CASES THE DOMINANT WAVE WITHIN A NEGATIVELY

TILTED TROUGH INTO THE ERN CONUS USURPED THE WEAKER SYSTEM CAUSING

THE LEFT-HOOK OF THE POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM.

IN ADDITION...MODEL SOLNS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN PREMATURELY PHASING

SYSTEMS WHILE OVERZEALOUSLY DEEPENING THE CYCLONE. RUN-TO-RUN WITH

THE GEFS INITIALLY EXHIBITED A VERY STRONG ANOMALY WITH SANDY...BUT

HAS LATELY COME DOWN ON THE STRENGTH OF THAT ANOMALY /SANDY THOUGH

STILL REMAINS AN ANOMALOUS AND HISTORIC SYSTEM/.

IT IS FROM THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE DISCUSSIONS ABOVE THAT

THERE IS HESITATION THAT SANDY WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPEN DOWN TO A

LOW PRESSURE AROUND 950 HPA BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. IN ADDITION

THERE REMAINS CHALLENGES WITH WHETHER SANDY WILL REMAIN TROPICAL OR

POST-TROPICAL...IMPACTING WHETHER IT PHASES WITH THE ANTICIPATED

TROUGH OR REMAINS AN ENTITY UNTO ITSELF. THEREFORE THERE ARE

CONSEQUENTIALLY QUESTIONS AS TO THE IMPACTS AND THREATS ASSOCIATED

WITH SANDY.

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From Mt Holly:

SANDY: FOR LATEST ADVISORIES/TRACK-INTENSITY/CONE OF WIND PROBABILITIES

AND EVENTUALLY PSURGE...PLS FOLLOW NHC PRODUCTS.

SINCE THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A PARTIAL TRANSITIONING TO A

POWERFUL EXTRA TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALL HAZARDS FOR THE MOUNT HOLLY

AREA WILL BE GENERATED USING STANDARD NON TROPICAL PROCEDURES.

It's tough because major media outlets are all already reporting Sandy has been downgraded to TS. That in itself will have the general public letting their guard down. The full stories still discuss the potential dangers associate with Sandy but a lot of people just glance at the headlines.

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Again..I think we've seen the GFS perform better in the 3 day and under period and the Euro better in the 4-10 day period. NYC area seems the most likely based on current thinking. I'd be shocked if the Euro doesn't shift back NE today.

It's funny how you were dismissing the GFS and praising the Euro when the GFS showed a miss and the Euro showed a hit. Now because the GFS shows a hit you're latching onto that. This will be bad for sure, but I don't think it will be nearly as bad as you think, especially if it makes landfall in SNJ/CNJ as predicted.

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It's funny how you were dismissing the GFS and praising the Euro when the GFS showed a miss and the Euro showed a hit. Now because the GFS shows a hit you're latching onto that. This will be bad for sure, but I don't think it will be nearly as bad as you think, especially if it makes landfall in SNJ/CNJ as predicted.

People should be smart both acknowledging the impacts, but not scaring people to death. Again, if it tracks near NYC, it's worse from a wind/surge point than NHC track. However, a LLJ will be well to the NE, so most areas will have a 6-12hr period of very strong winds.

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Geezus first thing I hear coming into work is , oh its only a Tropical storm now, NBD so far 3 people said that.

Has been and will be a major point of discussion with this storm: how to alert a public that has rarely if ever seen a hybrid storm like this. Continue to call it a Cat 1 Hurricane prior to landfall, even though it will not be a hurricane? Call it a tropical storm, even though its impacts may surpass the recent public memory of hurricane Irene?

NHC seems to be hedging, on the one hand weakening to a Tropical Storm now based on max winds, but on the other hand calling for this to become a Cat 1 Hurricane before landfall, perhaps for the sake of public awareness.

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