Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Stronger would support a "wagon's south" outcome, correct? No. You guys up there are in for a serious blow..Just like the rest of SNE. You have no idea how bad this could potentially be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 No. You guys up there are in for a serious blow..Just like the rest of SNE. You have no idea how bad this could potentially be I think you are losing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Do you guys think its irresponsible for nhc to leave it go local nws offices to issue the warnings, I think with no tropical storm of hurricane warnings many many people won't take this serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 No. You guys up there are in for a serious blow..Just like the rest of SNE. You have no idea how bad this could potentially be You're a little closer to the action but MPM and I have 100 miles of CP and hills between us and the nearest ocean. That's serious buffer considering the center could be 300+ miles away. Sure if the hit is just W of NYC we get some high winds but otherwise I'm expecting limited damage up here and unimpressive rains with the current forecast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Huh? Why are you downplaying things? This is extremely serious Because a track near ACY or even ctrl NJ will be pretty bad, but very bad for NYC. Especially surge. Winds will be like 50-70 over us with gusts to 80 I think on the south coast..maybe isolated higher. If it tracked near NYC like the GFS, it would be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro ensembles south into srn NJ.Similar to 00z. Still looks like ctrl/srn NJ landfall to me. Looks like i might take the brunt of this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Noted the 5 am NHC advisory where north of the current TS warning area, they are having local offices issue Storm/High Wind warnings. Looking at the watches being issued by Mount Holly confirms this. A bit surprised, figured they would treat as tropical up until landfall. all of the affected offices had a conference call with NHC at 4am, at which time everyone was released to issue their coordinated packages. That's why several offices issued afd's at 4am, and updated with details just a little while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The GFS has 60-70kt sustained winds at 950mb along the coast all the way up to downeast Maine. Pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looks like i might take the brunt of this... I think a track near ACY would be extremely bad NYC area on south and LI sound. Bad wind and surge. A track near Sandy Hook would be much worse further north and LI sound. It would be bad here, but not worse case. IFFF it tracked like that. It all depends hpw fast it turns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The GFS has 60-70kt sustained winds at 950mb along the coast all the way up to downeast Maine. Pretty crazy. GFS is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Again..I think we've seen the GFS perform better in the 3 day and under period and the Euro better in the 4-10 day period. NYC area seems the most likely based on current thinking. I'd be shocked if the Euro doesn't shift back NE today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 All I can say is this, If the GFS happened or was a little further north, LI sound/coastal CT would be horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 all of the affected offices had a conference call with NHC at 4am, at which time everyone was released to issue their coordinated packages. That's why several offices issued afd's at 4am, and updated with details just a little while ago. From Mt Holly: SANDY: FOR LATEST ADVISORIES/TRACK-INTENSITY/CONE OF WIND PROBABILITIES AND EVENTUALLY PSURGE...PLS FOLLOW NHC PRODUCTS. SINCE THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A PARTIAL TRANSITIONING TO A POWERFUL EXTRA TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALL HAZARDS FOR THE MOUNT HOLLY AREA WILL BE GENERATED USING STANDARD NON TROPICAL PROCEDURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The question is do the NAM and GFS cave more towards the Euro today as we are so used to with winter Nor Easters or do American models score a coup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I think you are losing it. lol will SNE still be there on Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Stronger would support a "wagon's south" outcome, correct? Mets correct me if I'm wrong... My understanding is yes, stronger = further south track: earlier baroclinic phasing --> faster deepening and sooner left hook This also seems to be the correlation comparing landfall pressure and track between NOGAPS, Euro, and GFS. From BOX disco yesterday: FOCUSING ON LITERARY WORKS AND CLIMATOLOGICAL ANALYSIS...THERE IS A DEPENDENCY ON WHETHER SANDY REMAINS TROPICAL OR EVOLVES INTO A POST- TROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS IS ANOTHER MAJOR UNCERTAINTY. MENTIONED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION...A TROPICAL SYSTEM /ESPECIALLY ONE THAT MOVES FAST/ WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN CROSSING H5 HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RESULTING IN A LESSER CHANCE OF PHASING WITH BAROCLINIC SYSTEMS THEREBY REMAINING DISTINCT AND TAKING MORE OF A N/W TRACK /DAISY 1962 AND JUAN 2003/...WHEREAS A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE /ESPECIALLY IF IT SLOWS/ HAVING A GREATER CHANCE OF TRACKING LEFT /ESTHER 1961...MID-NOVEMBER UNNAMED SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM IN 1981/. IN SUCH CASES THE DOMINANT WAVE WITHIN A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH INTO THE ERN CONUS USURPED THE WEAKER SYSTEM CAUSING THE LEFT-HOOK OF THE POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...MODEL SOLNS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY IN PREMATURELY PHASING SYSTEMS WHILE OVERZEALOUSLY DEEPENING THE CYCLONE. RUN-TO-RUN WITH THE GEFS INITIALLY EXHIBITED A VERY STRONG ANOMALY WITH SANDY...BUT HAS LATELY COME DOWN ON THE STRENGTH OF THAT ANOMALY /SANDY THOUGH STILL REMAINS AN ANOMALOUS AND HISTORIC SYSTEM/. IT IS FROM THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE DISCUSSIONS ABOVE THAT THERE IS HESITATION THAT SANDY WILL SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPEN DOWN TO A LOW PRESSURE AROUND 950 HPA BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. IN ADDITION THERE REMAINS CHALLENGES WITH WHETHER SANDY WILL REMAIN TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL...IMPACTING WHETHER IT PHASES WITH THE ANTICIPATED TROUGH OR REMAINS AN ENTITY UNTO ITSELF. THEREFORE THERE ARE CONSEQUENTIALLY QUESTIONS AS TO THE IMPACTS AND THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 From Mt Holly: SANDY: FOR LATEST ADVISORIES/TRACK-INTENSITY/CONE OF WIND PROBABILITIES AND EVENTUALLY PSURGE...PLS FOLLOW NHC PRODUCTS. SINCE THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST A PARTIAL TRANSITIONING TO A POWERFUL EXTRA TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALL HAZARDS FOR THE MOUNT HOLLY AREA WILL BE GENERATED USING STANDARD NON TROPICAL PROCEDURES. It's tough because major media outlets are all already reporting Sandy has been downgraded to TS. That in itself will have the general public letting their guard down. The full stories still discuss the potential dangers associate with Sandy but a lot of people just glance at the headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 lol will SNE still be there on Wednesday? It will be a hell of a storm, just not sure of worse case scenario here. I would be concerned SW coastal CT and LI sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 lol will SNE still be there on Wednesday? I'm expecting to wake up wednesday with Western Ma Electric reporting < 1000 people w/o power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloudsncontrails Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Again..I think we've seen the GFS perform better in the 3 day and under period and the Euro better in the 4-10 day period. NYC area seems the most likely based on current thinking. I'd be shocked if the Euro doesn't shift back NE today. It's funny how you were dismissing the GFS and praising the Euro when the GFS showed a miss and the Euro showed a hit. Now because the GFS shows a hit you're latching onto that. This will be bad for sure, but I don't think it will be nearly as bad as you think, especially if it makes landfall in SNJ/CNJ as predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Am I missing something or is the Euro run far enough south where the worst surge is not maximized in NYC and the south coast? Aren't the winds 15-25 MPH less on the coast and 20-30 inland? doesn't the Euro make landfall in Delaware not NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Am I missing something or is the Euro run far enough south where the worst surge is not maximized in NYC and the south coast? Aren't the winds 15-25 MPH less on the coast and 20-30 inland? doesn't the Euro make landfall in Delaware not NJ? Euro has LF on Cape May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Geezus first thing I hear coming into work is , oh its only a Tropical storm now, NBD so far 3 people said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 It's funny how you were dismissing the GFS and praising the Euro when the GFS showed a miss and the Euro showed a hit. Now because the GFS shows a hit you're latching onto that. This will be bad for sure, but I don't think it will be nearly as bad as you think, especially if it makes landfall in SNJ/CNJ as predicted. People should be smart both acknowledging the impacts, but not scaring people to death. Again, if it tracks near NYC, it's worse from a wind/surge point than NHC track. However, a LLJ will be well to the NE, so most areas will have a 6-12hr period of very strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Euro has LF on Cape May This must be wrong then. straight west from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 At the least, people should prepare for several days without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Lets get one thing off the board, this is not a 1938 in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 For Steve Euro is like a 2z landfall in Cape May County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 LOL at Kevin praising Lundberg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Geezus first thing I hear coming into work is , oh its only a Tropical storm now, NBD so far 3 people said that. Has been and will be a major point of discussion with this storm: how to alert a public that has rarely if ever seen a hybrid storm like this. Continue to call it a Cat 1 Hurricane prior to landfall, even though it will not be a hurricane? Call it a tropical storm, even though its impacts may surpass the recent public memory of hurricane Irene? NHC seems to be hedging, on the one hand weakening to a Tropical Storm now based on max winds, but on the other hand calling for this to become a Cat 1 Hurricane before landfall, perhaps for the sake of public awareness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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