Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Pretty good agreement there as compared to before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 18z HRWF: 18z GFDL: Two more reasons the NHC track is baffling... Now even the dynamic models are pulling things to the North... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 There really is a great consensus for a central NJ landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 18z HRWF: 18z GFDL: both models have at least 65 mph winds sustained on long island..impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm wondering if due to the longevity of the storm, that even if landfall misses out with high tide we can still get a bad surge regardless afterwards or before. This doesn't seem like a quick in-out storm like Irene and this should be a problem for a couple of tide cycles. It will be over multiple high tide cycles, but it will be interesting to see how the peak values actually work out at different locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Let the radar tracking begin. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=ltx&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Saw this statement put out by NWS Upton this evening. Gave me the chills.... NOUS41 KOKX 262351 CCA PNSOKX CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-281000- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 750 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012 ...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT... ...PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION FOR THE UPCOMING COASTAL STORM... A DANGEROUS COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSE TO THE TRI STATE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE AREA COULD BE FELT AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. NOW IS THE TIME TO START PLANNING FOR THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. STAY INFORMED BY MONITORING THE LATEST HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES IN ADDITION TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOCAL FORECASTS. LISTEN TO RADIO AND TELEVISION REPORTS...AS WELL AS NOAA WEATHER RADIO TO GET THE LATEST ADVISORY UPDATES. SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. FIND OUT IF YOU LIVE WITHIN A STORM SURGE EVACUATION ZONE. KNOW THE LOCATION OF DESIGNATED OFFICIAL SHELTERS AND LEARN THE MOST DIRECT SAFE ROUTE TO GET THERE. MOST SHELTERS WILL NOT ALLOW PETS...AND SOME SHELTERS HAVE FACILITIES FOR THOSE WITH SPECIAL NEEDS...SO TAKE THESE INTO CONSIDERATION. ADDITIONALLY...KNOW YOUR EVACUATION ROUTES IN ADVANCE. MUCH OF THIS INFORMATION MAY BE FOUND AT YOUR LOCAL TOWN HALL...OR ON THE INTERNET AT YOUR COUNTY'S OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WEBSITE. LISTEN CAREFULLY TO LOCAL OFFICIALS AND EVACUATE THE AREA IF TOLD TO DO SO. IF YOU DO NOT EVACUATE TO AN OFFICIAL SHELTER...YOU MAY CONSIDER STAYING AT A FRIEND'S OR RELATIVE'S HOME OUT OF THE EVACUATION ZONE. LEAVE LOW LYING OR COASTAL AREAS...AS WELL AS OFFSHORE ISLANDS. THESE ARE THE LOCATIONS MOST PRONE TO STORM SURGE. STORM SURGE IS THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF A STORM SUCH AS THIS ONE. THE SURGE IS A DOME OF WATER THAT COMES ACROSS THE COAST AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL. IF YOU LIVE CLOSE TO THE COAST IN A MOBILE HOME YOU SHOULD EVACUATE TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER...EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT IN A STORM SURGE PRONE AREA. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THIS STORM. BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING TO HEAD TO HIGHER GROUND IF YOU LIVE NEAR FLOOD PRONE RIVERS AND STREAMS. IF EVACUATION IS NOT REQUIRED OR RECOMMENDED...STAY AT HOME IF YOUR HOUSE IS STURDY AND ON HIGH GROUND. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR A RELATIVELY LONG DURATION OF TIME. BE PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF PROPERTY DAMAGE AND AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF POWER OUTAGES. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE THE FOLLOWING SUPPLIES... OBTAIN A PORTABLE...BATTERY OPERATED RADIO ALONG WITH A FRESH SUPPLY OF BATTERIES. A RADIO WILL BE ONE OF YOUR MOST USEFUL SOURCES OF INFORMATION. OBTAIN SEVERAL FLASHLIGHTS WITH FRESH BATTERIES. USE OF CANDLES FOR LIGHTING IS NOT RECOMMENDED FOR SAFETY REASONS. HAVE ENOUGH EXTRA BATTERIES TO LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THERE MAY BE NO ELECTRICITY AFTER THE STORM. HAVE A FULL TANK OF GASOLINE IN YOUR AUTOMOBILE. NEVER LET YOUR VEHICLE GAS TANK BE LESS THAN HALF FULL DURING A STORM LIKE THIS. ELECTRICALLY OPERATED GAS PUMPS MAY FAIL DURING THE STORM. OBTAIN CANNED GOODS AND NON PERISHABLE FOODS. THERE MAY BE NO ELECTRICITY OR GAS AFTER THE STORM...SO STORE PACKAGED FOODS WHICH CAN BE PREPARED WITHOUT COOKING AND NEED NO REFRIGERATION. REFILL NEEDED PRESCRIPTION MEDICATIONS. OBTAIN CONTAINERS FOR DRINKING WATER. HAVE CLEAN...AIR TIGHT CONTAINERS TO STORE A SUFFICIENT WATER SUPPLY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE WATER SUPPLY WILL POSSIBLY BE INTERRUPTED OR CONTAMINATED. OBTAIN MATERIALS FOR PROTECTING GLASS OPENINGS. HAVE SHUTTERS OR LUMBER FOR PROTECTING LARGE WINDOWS AND DOORS. USE MASKING TAPE ON SMALL WINDOWS. PUTTING TAPE ON GLASS WINDOWS OR DOORS WILL NOT PREVENT FLYING DEBRIS FROM BREAKING THE GLASS...BUT WILL MINIMIZE THE SPREADING AND SHATTERING OF GLASS IF THE WINDOW DOES BREAK. HAVE MATERIALS FOR EMERGENCY REPAIRS. YOUR INSURANCE POLICY MAY COVER THE COST OF MATERIALS USED IN TEMPORARY REPAIRS...SO KEEP ALL RECEIPTS. THESE WILL ALSO BE HELPFUL FOR ANY INCOME TAX DEDUCTIONS. FOR THE MARINE COMMUNITY...MOOR YOUR BOAT SECURELY OR MOVE IT TO SAFE SHELTER. FINALLY...DONT FORGET TO BRING PETS INDOORS...AND SECURE OUTDOOR OBJECTS IF NOT BRINGING THEM INDOORS AS WELL. DISCUSS STORM PREPAREDNESS WITH YOUR FAMILY. SHARE YOUR IDEAS WITH FRIENDS...NEIGHBORS AND RELATIVES. PREPAREDNESS IS A JOB FOR EVERYONE IN THE COMMUNITY. FOR ADDITIONAL HELP OR ASSISTANCE ON STORM PREPAREDNESS...PLEASE CONTACT YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. IT IS BEST TO FORMULATE YOUR PREPAREDNESS PLAN WELL IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM...DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE LAST MINUTE. $$ Still debating whether I should make the trip up from DC just to see this storm in action. Looking more and more likely that I will. My friends all think I am nuts, but I am sure you all can relate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Two more reasons the NHC track is baffling... Now even the dynamic models are pulling things to the North... The HWRF is mostly ignored even for fully tropical systems in the tropics - after great initial hopes it's been a failed modeling project after the application of large amounts of money and effort. I wouldn't even bother looking at it for Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The early dyanamic models are still south of the other models but inching north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The early dyanamic models are still south of the other models but inching north. If you look at the interpolated models based on Sandy's actual 0Z position they are quite a bit further south - for example, the HWRFI is into central New Jersey. Likely due to the much slower than forecast movement this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 The HWRF is mostly ignored even for fully tropical systems in the tropics - after great initial hopes it's been a failed modeling project after the application of large amounts of money and effort. I wouldn't even bother looking at it for Sandy. Cool. Appreciate the tip man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Center has a few more thunderstorms around it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NAM is more intense than the 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Not that it matters... Nam coming in 8 mb stronger at hour 33 on 0z. At 968 compared to 976 on 18z at hour 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Shortwave in Tennessee much weaker then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 I'm no expert at model analysis but the H5 ridge to the north looks beefier. Plus the vort looks a tad west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 some heavy rain by sunday night on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 0z Nam is going to be huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 0z Nam is going to be huge Looks like a coastal jersey hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 964 at 60 vs 976 and 100miles more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NYC Harbor @ 958 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Looks like it makes LF around Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 964 at 60 vs 976 and 100miles more west. Hard to see and likely doesnt mean much but the nam looks to bring Sandy into Sandy Hook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 960 at 63hr+. heaviest qpf stays on the W and SW area of the cyclone, delmarva flooded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 wow..so many contours I cant see where landfall is..I've never seen this many contours on the 850 map.up here..many those are nasty winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 with this run of the NAM the winds along the jersey shore, NYC and LI should have no problem gusting to 75-90mph. this storm is wicked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hard to see and likely doesnt mean much but the nam looks to bring Sandy into Sandy Hook Haha very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 Hard to see and likely doesnt mean much but the nam looks to bring Sandy into Sandy Hook And will have taken a hook to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted October 27, 2012 Share Posted October 27, 2012 NHC 11 PM update has Sandy cutting across Delaware Bay Early Tuesday http://www.nhc.noaa....?large#contents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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