MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This 18z run had new data in it. There are sending balloons up in every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Does anyone think a forecast storm surge of around 6 feet currently being said by the local TV mets is too conservative relative to this 18z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 This 18z run had new data in it. There are sending balloons up in every run. I thought the balloons were launched at 18z.??? I thought 00z was first suite with extra data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I thought the balloons were launched at 18z.??? I thought 00z was first suite with extra data. Maybe I heard wrong. Can anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Does anyone think a forecast storm surge of around 6 feet currently being said by the local TV mets is too conservative relative to this 18z run? If sytem turns toward NJ coast about Atlantic City and then button hooks OTS via upstate NY----then just think Sept. 03, 1821!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Fairly certain it is the 00 and 12 Z model runs that typically have new sounding data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 There were balloons launched nationwide at 18z: http://www.spc.ncep....s/12102518_OBS/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z gefs is similar to the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 18z GFS detailed view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Anyone worried about possible tornados with the way this storm comes in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think the gfs may continue to adjust with the euro.. This may end up being a mid Atlantic special.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think the gfs may continue to adjust with the euro.. This may end up being a mid Atlantic special.. The European ensembles being farther north make this possibility less likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 I think the gfs may continue to adjust with the euro.. This may end up being a mid Atlantic special.. Take a look at a satellite image of the perfect storm notice how large it is. The strongest winds can be displaced a hundred or more miles north east of the center. Thats the area where the storm is bumping up against the blocking high and thus the strongest pressure gradient. So even if it is that far south I do not think it will matter that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Can't think of a worse scenario for storm surge unless this was like a Cat 4 merging with the trough instead of cat 1-2. Verbatim, that would be worse than Irene for many of us, perhaps much worse. With the full moon, another couple of feet might be added to a surge. Plus whatever the wave heights are. This will be a storm talked about for probably decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 25, 2012 Share Posted October 25, 2012 Take a look at a satellite image of the perfect storm notice how large it is. The strongest winds can be displaced a hundred or more miles north east of the center. Thats the area where the storm is bumping up against the blocking high and thus the strongest pressure gradient. So even if it is that far south I do not think it will matter that much. It won't-even the Euro today when it made landfall in MD brought ferocious winds up to here. The only real way out we have is if it makes landfall in New England, and the models are continuing to trend south. The track the ensembles have is really our absolute worst case scenario. The winds would be strong and start piling up water maybe 12 hours or more before the center gets close to here. We wouldn't just have 1-2 high tide cycles we would have to worry about, we would likely have 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 It won't-even the Euro today when it made landfall in MD brought ferocious winds up to here. The only real way out we have is if it makes landfall in New England, and the models are continuing to trend south. The track the ensembles have is really our absolute worst case scenario. The winds would be strong and start piling up water maybe 12 hours or more before the center gets close to here. We wouldn't just have 1-2 high tide cycles we would have to worry about, we would likely have 3. winds and surge on LI are gonna by far be the biggest stories. hurricane force winds are starting to look more likely with higher gusts as well. surge, were gonna see something the likes that not many have seen around here and dont wanna see in there life on the coastline. we are really in the worst case scenario for the NYC metro/LI area. and im not seeing much waving away from that either today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Anyone worried about possible tornados with the way this storm comes in? Probably not too big of a threat (though it's always possible) since the atmosphere is a late-October one and not too unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The aspect of this storm that makes it quite unique, and potentially (can't believe I'm about to say these words) more threatening to a larger area than historic cyclones like the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, the 1938 LI hurricane, Donna, Carol in the late 50s/early 60s, and Gloria in the 80s, is the interaction w/ the s/w energy. Typically in a warm core hurricane the strongest winds, of Cat 1+ sustained intensity are concentrated within maybe 50 miles of the LLC, with a wide scope of tropical storm force gusts extending 100-200+ miles out from the center. However, with Sandy, the baroclinic energy via the negatively tilted short wave trough and incredible upper jet dynamics will yield a transitioning warm core storm that is not much weaker at all, upon landful. The central pressure will probably bottom out 12 hrs prior to landfall with slight weakening in the cooler shelf waters, but the damaging wind field will also be expanding rapidly due to the extra-tropical transition, pressure gradient, and dynamics. So even if the hurricane itself weakens from a 90 kt to 70 kt storm upon landfall, there may be hurricane force wind gusts covering a long stretch of coastline from the Delmarva up to the southern New England coast. Even the NW winds, if the LLC passes NE of your location, will be nothing to sneeze at. Those on the west side may experience (even well inland, 50+ miles) sustained NWLY winds of 30-40mph with gusts into the 60s range. Models are converging and its now becoming apparent that this is going to happen, and we're looking at the very least, a major, disruptive storm for the entire Northeast DC-BOS corridor with the potential for devastating, extremely costly results for some coastal locations. Damage to infrastructure along the Jersey shore and/or LI will likely be unprecedented for our area assuming current model guidance doesn't waver much in the next 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 18z GFS detailed view Is that depicting 80+ mph winds at PHL? NVM--just saw the 850mb winds indication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Is that depicting 80+ mph winds at PHL? NVM--just saw the 850mb winds indication. If I'm seeing that correctly, 100 kt H85 winds are being depicted across NNJ at that time frame. High Point NJ may look like Mt Washington for a time, with winds potentially gusting in the 60-70mph range. Higher terrain may have more damage from winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The aspect of this storm that makes it quite unique, and potentially (can't believe I'm about to say these words) more threatening to a larger area than historic cyclones like the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, the 1938 LI hurricane, Donna, Carol in the late 50s/early 60s, and Gloria in the 80s, is the interaction w/ the s/w energy. Typically in a warm core hurricane the strongest winds, of Cat 1+ sustained intensity are concentrated within maybe 50 miles of the LLC, with a wide scope of tropical storm force gusts extending 100-200+ miles out from the center. However, with Sandy, the baroclinic energy via the negatively tilted short wave trough and incredible upper jet dynamics will yield a transitioning warm core storm that is not much weaker at all, upon landful. The central pressure will probably bottom out 12 hrs prior to landfall with slight weakening in the cooler shelf waters, but the damaging wind field will also be expanding rapidly due to the extra-tropical transition, pressure gradient, and dynamics. So even if the hurricane itself weakens from a 90 kt to 70 kt storm upon landfall, there may be hurricane force wind gusts covering a long stretch of coastline from the Delmarva up to the southern New England coast. Even the NW winds, if the LLC passes NE of your location, will be nothing to sneeze at. Those on the west side may experience (even well inland, 50+ miles) sustained NWLY winds of 30-40mph with gusts into the 60s range. Models are converging and its now becoming apparent that this is going to happen, and we're looking at the very least, a major, disruptive storm for the entire Northeast DC-BOS corridor with the potential for devastating, extremely costly results for some coastal locations. Damage to infrastructure along the Jersey shore and/or LI will likely be unprecedented for our area assuming current model guidance doesn't waver much in the next 72 hrs. Clarification to the above - there have been northward moving hurricanes with interaction from short waves to their NW, but the difference here is Sandy will essentially be absorbed into the mid latitude jet and captured by the upper energy digging southwest. Thus all that baroclinic energy is combining with the warm core energy of Sandy to create a perfect hybrid type event. Question now is where does the center hit. Anywhere from Delmarva-NYC will be devastating for our area, and NYC-LI will be most devastating for SNE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This upload got deleted from the New England subforum for some reason, I guess because I'm not a quality regular poster like Kev... GFDL way South... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 This upload got deleted from the New England subforum for some reason, I guess because I'm not a quality regular poster like Kev... GFDL way South... Interesting to see it go so far south -- but I still don't think the storm will phase and capture fast enough to pull west into Wallops island. The Euro ensembles being farther north add confidence to this, but the phase would have to happen faster and the Atlantic ridge between Sandy and the North Atlantic ULL would have to come in much stronger in order to get a solution with landfall that far South and West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 18z HWRF is way west. 932 low on eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 26, 2012 Author Share Posted October 26, 2012 i wouldn't use a tropical model for this beyond the beginning of ET transition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 18z NCEP ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 The most devastating wind storm of all time in pacific north west was a hybrid type system with a pressure similar to what we should see. That storm had widespread wind gust over 100mph. So I think people are downplaying the winds. IF the models verify I think we are talking mega tree and some structural damage. Here on LI the oaks still have leaves and they are going to come down big time once the winds exceed 80mph. (gusts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 Yeah, a tropical model is not going to handle the baroclinic interactions well at all, despite the fact that Sandy will probably remain warm core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 0z early dynamic runs are clustered from mid Jersey to Staten Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 26, 2012 Share Posted October 26, 2012 00z tropical guidance Liking that NJ landfall even more now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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