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Potential major phasing event this weekend


forkyfork

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What type of winds would Long Island and Southern New England experience from this type of storm, should it come to fruition? Would we be talking 80-100 mph sustained winds and gusts to 120+ mph? There looks like an awful lot of isobars stacked in that region between the 942 mb low and the 1032 mb high.

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Just a terrible track for LI and the coast of SNE on the GFS verbatim...winds just off the deck are extremely impressive and even the 10m winds are sustained 50-60kts for a period on the GFS (just glancing at the national 10m wind map).

The storm surge and strong winds would be a significant problem for Long Island including the sound and CT coast all the way up the coast of the Cape and SNE if this run were to verify.

Also, is that fujiwara between the TC and the phasing energy?

Crazy!!

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i feel like we went through this with irene....ill be shocked to see a low near 940

The evolution between Irene and this one is completely different. Irene was mostly a pure tropical entity as it come up the coast, Sandy will be a monster hybrid phased with the trough that you would normally only see near the arctic or well north of here at least.

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This is just insane. I still don't buy the 940mb intensity as it strikes, but a historic event looks to be incoming with the GFS caving. Looks like we're narrowing down a landfall zone from about Narragansett Bay to Cape May. I think a lot will depend on the strength of that block-the deeper the block, the more the S/W energy will dig and create an earlier phase, and further west track. A good "consensus point" as of now seems to be over NYC or around Sandy Hook. For Long Island and lower lying areas of NYC, that would be devastating. The surge from this could top Irene's.

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Seriously, the comparisons to Irene need to stop. They are not even in the same ballpark in terms of intensity, synoptics and track. Irene was a decaying tropical cyclone that made landfall on the SE Jersey coastline and moved basically NNE into SNE. Sandy would most likely be taking a worst case scenario track NNW with much greater potential for coastal flooding.

Thy synoptics involved are just unreal. This is not your typical northern Atlantic Hurricane. This is a hybrid system that could be strengthening up to landfall.

If a lot of people make the mistake of comparing this to Irene I fear a lot of people will die. (Assuming a track somewhere between the ECMWF and the 12z GFS verifies. Ala 0z ECMWF ensemble mean)

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You can watch the fujiwara effect here when looping through 500mb. The TC gets slingshot to the north and then swung back to the west while the phasing trough is south. This solution likely has very little extratropical transition as the storm is maintained by the way the phase occurs.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html

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Its the crawl and retrograding that does the most damage - 12 hrs or so of 50 - 60 mph winds ( hopefully not stornger ) from the same direction

that rakes the coast line with a storm surge and drives the water into inlets and bays thats a bigger concern . That windfield will be large

in circumference , so its effects are felt over a larger area

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Its the crawl and retrograding that does the most damage - 12 hrs or so of 50 - 60 mph winds ( hopefully not stornger ) from the same direction

that rakes the coast line with a storm surge and drives the water into inlets and bays thats a bigger concern . That windfield will be large

in circumference , so its effects are felt over a larger area

sorry for italics

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Ths GFS run would have things starting very suddenly from 09z-12z Tuesday AM from 117-120 hours, prior to that we've just got steady N-NE winds of 20-25 mph.

Interesting. Holding onto more tropical characteristics per GFS, then? Not that we should be banking on it - it just got to the party, after all, and is probably still drunk from the pre-party party. :)

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You can watch the fujiwara effect here when looping through 500mb. The TC gets slingshot to the north and then swung back to the west while the phasing trough is south. This solution likely has very little extratropical transition as the storm is maintained by the way the phase occurs.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_12z/avnloopnew.html

Deep warm core seclusion, perhaps? That would be quite scary.

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This is incredible. I'm making plans already for evacuation, so I'm not doing it last minute. (On the 1/2 mile from coastline and 10 miles N of Sandy Hook.) General public seems to think this isn't going to be much of anything. Most people don't even know it's happening.

This doesn't seem like too much of a rain event. What are the chances Newark airport will be shut down on Tuesday morning? I have an in-law that's supposed to fly out and I'm praying they don't get stranded.....

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--Not helpful. Can we leave statements like this to FEMA?

With all due respect, I volunteer NJ OEM. I also am a firefighter so I'll be on the front lines during this storm. I always preach to assume the worst case scenario until otherwise. That means preparing now and getting people evacuated before it's too late. I would rather over prepare and have the storm miss than have a single person die because I didn't think conditions would be as bad as forecasted. The bottom line is people need to stop assuming that just because they don't think a scenario is likely or just because it hasn't happened in there lifetime it isn't going to happen. The Euro, and as shocking as it may be, the NOAGPS have been locked in on this for days and days and the other models for the most part have been playing catch up. Assuming no major changes on the GGEM/UKIE/ECMWF 12z runs we are starting to form a general consensus.

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John Paulson's $100m gift to Central Park appears to be... well timed. Going to be lots of tree damage.

I came out to LI today and the trees are significantly more along here than in the 5 boroughs and especially NYC...I'd say in SE Nassau we are over 50% and some are defoliating pretty well...it will save us somewhat I think, not as if it was 2-3 weeks form now but we'll be a nose better off than if it was summer...the tree in front of my parent's house here is about a quarter or more leaf dropped so to speak.

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