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Will the Euro eat crow with this upcoming storm?

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

What say you?  

76 members have voted

  1. 1. Will the Euro eat crow with this upcoming storm?


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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I picked yes. Not signicantly but a definite trend west/nw for accum's at least to SEMA and Cape

If thats the final solution, I'm not sure we can call it the Euro eating crow...as that would have been decently southeast of the GFS solutions as well.

An ENE special where Boston gets advisory and the Cape gets hit hard would probably be a 50/50 compromise.If we can pull it a little further NW like the DGEX type solution, then I would consider that a failure for the Euro

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

EAT CROW ****

GFS WINS

Huh?

The GFS had no storm at 0z dude, just like the ECM at 12z. How can that be considered a win? The 18z and 0z GFS runs had been significantly trending away from the scenario the 0z ECM is now showing.

And sorry, but the storm is still 4-5 days out, which is a long time when we're talking about a subtle phasing issue. It's literally going to come down to a slight increase/decrease in the southern stream shortwave and a few hours, between a big hit for NYC-BOS, a scraper, and nothing.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

IF the storm ends up being like tonight's EURO, than honestly no model wins. All of them vastly varied with their solutions.

Though I will say that I believe a day or two ago the UKIE was showing a solution much similar to the one the Euro is showing.

Ukie at 12z on Dec 14 was a monster hit. But its evolution was quite different than the Euro...the Euro is keying on that final s/w from the Rockies and creating a little mini blizzard for eastern New England whereas the Ukie was phasing almost the entire PV and hitting NE with 3 feet of snow, lol.

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skierinvermont

skierinvermont

Posted
Posted

I think the OP GFS at 00z was mostly a burp.. it's way east of the ens mean and the ens mean is usually too far east. Lots of the ens members are hits. GFS has been showing a hit most runs for a while now.. so if this does end up being a hit it did better than the Euro in some ways. Mostly it's just a big fail for the Euro compared to what it usually is at this timeframe.. even if it does trend back east some, one of the solutions will be very wrong.

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Sn0waddict

Sn0waddict

Posted
Posted

Ukie at 12z on Dec 14 was a monster hit. But its evolution was quite different than the Euro...the Euro is keying on that final s/w from the Rockies and creating a little mini blizzard for eastern New England whereas the Ukie was phasing almost the entire PV and hitting NE with 3 feet of snow, lol.

Gotcha, I kinda figured the evolution was quite different. I just remembered the UKIE crushing NE, so i figured I would give it some credit :lol:

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

La Niñas are just nto that snow-friendly. While there will be some snow, more will bust than happen. In December in particular, too much has to go right for a storm to take the form of snow and give a signficant accumulation.

For New England, La Ninas are very snow friendly particularly up north. Even here in Boston, a good NAO/cold ENSO couplet can give nice totals. 1970-71, 1955-56, and recent Ninas of 2007-08 come to mind.

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