Analog96 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 1.33" here so far. Got most of that in about 15 mins around 1 PM as a crazy small t-storm moved thru. Even had wind gusts to 25+ MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Saw some of the heaviest rains here in Glendale, Queens. I had a rain rate of 7.48 in/hr at 12:12pm. Total rain so far today is 1.61in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 I was pounded twice today...This morning around 7am and early afternoon...It was raining most of the day here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 This was in Nanuet this afternoon.....unsure if it was totally storm related or not, but it was certainly around the time the decent storms rolled through. I wonder how TornadoJay made out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 I was pounded twice today...This morning around 7am and early afternoon...It was raining most of the day here... 1.40 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 This was in Nanuet this afternoon.....unsure if it was totally storm related or not, but it was certainly around the time the decent storms rolled through. I wonder how TornadoJay made out: ouch imma go out on a "limb" pardon the irony and say that tree really screwed someones day haha.....some pretty wild weather today and some real big gradients in some locals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Total rain for the day 1.26'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Most of my rain came in the 2 hr period 11am-1pm but I had light rain until about 4-5pm. Total of 0.84", great steady rain for the lawns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Only 0.28" recorded by my station in Bridgewater; my area got split with thunderstorms to my west and east. New Brunswick got very little too with only 0.14". In between though the training line of storms dumped up to 4" in some places according to this Dual Pol estimate: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Only 0.28" recorded by my station in Bridgewater; my area got split with thunderstorms to my west and east. New Brunswick got very little too with only 0.14". In between though the training line of storms dumped up to 4" in some places according to this Dual Pol estimate: So true. I thought those 2 were merging at one point, but it didn't quite make it to piscataway. Got .15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 We have a decent EML tomorrow, and shortwave to trigger t-storms tomorrow afternoon.Weak shear and high PWs will lead to slow moving t-storms producing flash flooding again. Also high cape and steeper lapse rates, storms will be pulsing to strong or severe levels. Main severe wx threats, will be large hail and strong wind gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Impressive LLJ on the 12z NAM/GFS (especially NAM) for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 2, 2012 Author Share Posted August 2, 2012 The models have trended towards a poor timing issue with Sundays event. The best forcing and height falls are now delayed into the overnight hours of Sunday Night into early Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 The models have trended towards a poor timing issue with Sundays event. The best forcing and height falls are now delayed into the overnight hours of Sunday Night into early Monday morning. I think flash flooding is bigger threat than severe. It looks like tropical airmass, with dewpoints in the 70s. The GFS has been showing PWs 2-2.5", with this event. Shear and lapse rates don't look impressive for big severe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 2, 2012 Share Posted August 2, 2012 Water loading could end being a problem if PW values verify that high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Big time slight risk for the D3... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO OH/TN VALLEYS... ...MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND OH/TN VALLEYS... THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY WILL BE TIED TO THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH...FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY TO QUEBEC/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY MONDAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH A MODERATELY STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY THE UPPER OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT EARLY DAY TSTMS AND REMNANT OUTFLOWS COULD BE FACTORS...AN INCREASE/INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS OTHERWISE SEEMS PROBABLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NY/PA AND OTHER PARTS OF THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT...STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MODERATE BUOYANCY /1000-3000 J PER KG SBCAPE/ WILL ACCOUNT FOR STRONG/SUSTAINED STORMS WITHIN A WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS ARE LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY OVERALL HAZARD...BUT SOME SUPERCELLS MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA. SEVERAL ORGANIZED SYSTEMS/CLUSTERS MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...WITHIN A WEAKER SHEAR BUT MORE UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL REGIME...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY/MID-SOUTH AND PERHAPS OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 The last few runs of the 4km NAM has been suggesting some convection forming along sea-breeze boundary pushing inland over Central NJ, this afternoon. This is the 12z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 @andyhb- i think sunday we may get some scattered severe storms and nothing widespread until you go further into PA, upstate NY. Also agree with the outlook primary threat will be damaging winds and hail. Just wanna make sure we have decent low/mid level lapse rates, seems like cape and EML "shouldnt" be an issue but still got time to iron out details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 @andyhb- i think sunday we may get some scattered severe storms and nothing widespread until you go further into PA, upstate NY. Also agree with the outlook primary threat will be damaging winds and hail. Just wanna make sure we have decent low/mid level lapse rates, seems like cape and EML "shouldnt" be an issue but still got time to iron out details There is no EML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Big time slight risk for the D3... I'm gonna be in Upstate NY starting tomorrow and staying throughout the week so I hope I get some action there. The shear/instability parameters appear to be good there, as well as being closer to the UL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted August 3, 2012 Share Posted August 3, 2012 Pulse t-storms already popping over the sea-breeze boundary over Suffolk county: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 3, 2012 Author Share Posted August 3, 2012 Agree with sea breeze boundaries being a focal point for storms today. Shear is very meager otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Severe threat looking decent for Sunday afternoon/evening...and nobody is discussing...strange... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Agree with sea breeze boundaries being a focal point for storms today. Shear is very meager otherwise. Could happen again tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Glancing over the forecast for tomorrow it looks to remain dry, but I was wondering if anyone thought storms could pop up down near PNC Bank Arts Center? I'm heading there to see a System of a Down/Deftones concert and was wondering if isolated storms could pop up along any sea-breeze boundaries? Any thoughts? Or are the storm chances basically nil tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Had some very nice cumulus towers this afternoon down in South Jersey but everything quickly collapsed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 @andyhb- i think sunday we may get some scattered severe storms and nothing widespread until you go further into PA, upstate NY. Also agree with the outlook primary threat will be damaging winds and hail. Just wanna make sure we have decent low/mid level lapse rates, seems like cape and EML "shouldnt" be an issue but still got time to iron out details Remember, a severe thunderstorm is defined as one that produces a tornado, winds of at least 58 mph (50 knots), and / or hail at least 1" in diameter...so they are obviously pretty rare around here from a climatological perspective. The winds are likely the easiest of the three criteria to meet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 Remember, a severe thunderstorm is defined as one that produces a tornado, winds of at least 58 mph (50 knots), and / or hail at least 1" in diameter...so they are obviously pretty rare around here from a climatological perspective. The winds are likely the easiest of the three criteria to meet. It's funny, though. That is the OFFICIAL definition, but if a storm knocks down significant tree limbs, NWS verifies their warning and calls it severe, even though it may very well have had less than 58 MPH winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 It's funny, though. That is the OFFICIAL definition, but if a storm knocks down significant tree limbs, NWS verifies their warning and calls it severe, even though it may very well have had less than 58 MPH winds. I think its fair to say todays definition of a severe storm is alot broader than what william posted as an "official" severe thunderstorm. To me if a storm does knock down signifigant sized/qauntities of tree limbs, produces qaurter sized hail its severe being with that damage can cause damage to property and/or injure/kill people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 4, 2012 Share Posted August 4, 2012 I think its fair to say todays definition of a severe storm is alot broader than what william posted as an "official" severe thunderstorm. To me if a storm does knock down signifigant sized/qauntities of tree limbs, produces qaurter sized hail its severe being with that damage can cause damage to property and/or injure/kill people. It's the wind part that's the most ambiguous. At times, I've seen 45 MPH winds do decent tree damage. If a storm comes thru with winds of that strength, and does tree damage, it will be verified severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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