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August 2012 Severe Thunderstorm/Convection Discussion


earthlight

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Yeah the Euro and NAM seem to more similar than the GFS which really has nothing until tomorrow. But that's what the nam was showing yesterday so hopefully the new run will shift back to the overnight tonight idea.

edit: it has pushed up the timing now with the bulk of it falling between midnight and noon but lingering over eastern areas through the day

Euro has a similar start time as the NAM. 2-3 hours later on the euro; around 1am tonight and like you said, lasting until noonish from NYC west and longer into the afternoon for LI.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

432 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

* AT 428 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8

MILES WEST OF OTISVILLE...OR NEAR PORT JERVIS...AND MOVING EAST AT

15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

MIDDLETOWN

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What is the timeframe for the rain? Haven't checked in a while. Have a BBQ tomorrow :)

Looks like 12am until noonish tomorrow. Later for Long Island.

This is for overnight stuff. Looks like some convection trying to pop for earlier tonight.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

724 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

NYZ071>073-176-177-180015-

BRONX-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-NORTHERN NASSAU-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN

WESTCHESTER-

724 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT BRONX...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...

NORTHERN NASSAU...QUEENS AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...

AT 719 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A

STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAGUARDIA AIRPORT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT

30 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN

ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 1 INCH AN

HOUR...IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. THIS COULD CAUSE PONDING OF

WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN

HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE

TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

851 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

NYZ075-176>179-180130-

KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN NASSAU-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN

NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-

851 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NORTHERN NASSAU

AND QUEENS COUNTIES...

AT 850 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A

STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OZONE PARK...OR NEAR CROWN HEIGHTS...AND

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. IN

ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 1.5 INCHES

AN HOUR...IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. THIS COULD CAUSE PONDING OF

WATER ON ROADWAYS... AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN

HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE

TO SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

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  • 2 weeks later...

I just have a funny feeling that tomorrow morning's See Text risk event will overperform for us, because no one is discussing it. Favorable shear but marginal instability, like tomorrow's setup, seem to give us the worst storms and supercells.

x2. we seem to do better with morning setups over afternoon/evening storms

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  • 2 weeks later...

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