CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 LOL I was going to post the same thing. Damn I even have the image link copied and all ... What weenies we are..lol. All of us posted at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 84/72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Nice to see it though. I can definitely make them out in this picture. That's pretty awesome for this area! I do not have any down this way in C NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 We have suddenly developed a gray solid overcast here in SECT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I can definitely make them out in this picture. That's pretty awesome for this area! I do not have any down this way in C NJ. Now all we need is the shear to bump up a bit..... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 getting pretty cloudy, not a great sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 getting pretty cloudy, not a great sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I have accas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Blog post on today's storm threat http://ryanhanrahan.wordpress.com/2012/07/18/active-severe-weather-wednesday/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Now all we need is the shear to bump up a bit..... lol Hey at least you've got some wind over your state. Down this way, it's the doldrums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I have accas Take a picture. Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 87, but winds are NW now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Its usually a good sign when mets are postin pics of rare clouds @ 845 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Blog post on today's storm threat http://ryanhanrahan....ther-wednesday/ nice writeup, any thoughts on SECT? we are pretty socked in now almost looks smoggy gray type sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 How can it be a grey overcast in se CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 A lot of our severe days come as steeper lapse rates/modified EMLs are on their way our. We seem to capitalize a lot on the tail end of these things. That said the models do keep decent lapse rates around through at least 18z in these parts. Interesting indeed. And yeah I think Scott's expectations of ~6.5 seem reasonable moving through the midday hours...further west and south though idk if we'll have much left in the mid-levels by game time... either way we'll get very respectable cape values with the surface heating/dews, just probably a skinnier cape look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 The 2% addition to the TOR probs and upgrade to 30% seems warranted per the OKX sounding although I still think tornadogenesis will be tough to come by with the weak wind shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 The 2% addition to the TOR probs and upgrade to 30% seems warranted per the OKX sounding although I still think tornadogenesis will be tough to come by with the weak wind shear. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 12:45Z vis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 nice writeup, any thoughts on SECT? we are pretty socked in now almost looks smoggy gray type sky. oops that broke up quick, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Agreed. I suppose with the right boundary placement and storm motion, and the strong accent in our CAPE field allowing for a faster rotation (the old ice skater example / potential vorticity concept), we could get a tornado. Meh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 How can it be a grey overcast in se CT? It was , looked like a smog bank but that broke up quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 It was , looked like a smog bank but that broke up quick I can see it off to my North now , will take a pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I suppose with the right boundary placement and storm motion, and the strong accent in our CAPE field allowing for a faster rotation (the old ice skater example / potential vorticity concept), we could get a tornado. Meh.. I'm thinking a spin up at the apex of a bow echo or something where we maximize storm-scale storm relative helicity. The GFS does keep 500mb winds up to 35-40 knots for most of the day up here. NAM a bit more meh. Hopefully the stronger winds come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 Would like to see some nice rains out of todays storms, just not the Keene like rains in June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I'm thinking a spin up at the apex of a bow echo or something where we maximize storm-scale storm relative helicity. The GFS does keep 500mb winds up to 35-40 knots for most of the day up here. NAM a bit more meh. Hopefully the stronger winds come to fruition. You're right. It will most likely come from a bow or something like that. Down here, I am expecting some radial CAPE bombers to bring some isolated SIG winds to a few locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I have accas Some here, but seems to be replaced with other crap. I learned something today thanks to Scooter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 On a semi-related note, I wonder if the La Nina-tendency on the global pattern has even had a modifying effect on our potential today. The mid-July EML potential we were speculating to happen did to some degree materialize but not as strongly so as the original forecast in the long range. Perhaps if we had more of an El Nino-tendency, I wonder if the overall jet stream / wave structure would have been improved and increased our wind shear probabilities. Interesting HM and I really would not know. You're going to have to help me here as the summer-time is not my forte with long-range/pattern recognition. For a while there (within the past couple weeks), we were in a pattern (or at least one was being predicted by the models that may have not fully materialized) where I thought it looked El Nino-like..it featured the warmest anomalies/ridges rolling northward into Canada, and the return easterly flow underneath was leading to cooler/wetter anomalies across the south and into Texas...am I right to connect that to an el-nino tendency in the summer-time? with that said, such a pattern did not look favorable at all for increased wind shear/wind max's rolling through eastern North America. so I guess what I'm getting at is, why would you think more of an El-nino tendency would have lead to a potentially better wind/eml setup in the current timeframe? Edit: It was in the time frame following the EML/derecho setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 18, 2012 Share Posted July 18, 2012 I can see it off to my North now , will take a pic This moved through and covered the sky, very odd low level bank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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