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MN Transplant

2012 Drought Thread

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Indeed. The title of this thread should read "2010 - 2012 drought."

Not so much for 2010 and 2011...

2010:

post-96-0-63809600-1341585633_thumb.gif

2011:

post-96-0-48945300-1341585654_thumb.gif

-----

Here's 2012 YTD:

post-96-0-00638400-1341585700_thumb.gif

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Not so much for 2010 and 2011...

Along that same line, as dry as it's been this year, during the last 11 months DCA has received 41.35 inches of precipitation, ranking that period 35th out of 141 August to June periods.

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How did you generate these maps?

It's the Dynacast tool from MDA/EarthSat... it's a paid service, but I get it free since I work there :)

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Last fall was wet, wet, wet. We are at a surplus if you go back a year.

I can't argue the official stats, but I was referring mostly to our weather out here in the valley, which I can attest has not been above average in precip in any year since 2009. I had 2 years + of personal IMBY obs that unfortunately I lost (mostly) via virus attack.

While last fall was wet east of the BR, the bulk of that precip bypassed us as the charts below show. Note, it turned very dry in June after a dry winter, and a wet spring.

post-5003-0-60573700-1341590372_thumb.jp

July was bone dry

post-5003-0-21062000-1341594094_thumb.jp

While record rains hit DC and points east, it stayed bone dry out here in Aug

post-5003-0-49209500-1341592416_thumb.jp

Again records fell east of the BR, but we were only slightly above normal in Sep

post-5003-0-98166000-1341590806_thumb.jp

More above normal precip east of the BR in Oct, and only normal precip here.

post-5003-0-14278200-1341590981_thumb.jp

Here is a yearly chart for 2010 which shows -6 or greater departures

post-5003-0-51581200-1341591848_thumb.jp

I stand corrected, even in 2009 there wasn't above normal precip out here, only normal.

post-5003-0-00631600-1341592700_thumb.jp

I searched back to 2005 and found no year with above normal precip out here.

Infact, 2006 and 2007 were even drier than 2010.

post-5003-0-78093300-1341593048_thumb.jp

post-5003-0-62123300-1341593074_thumb.jp

In summary, in the past 7 years we've had two years with near normal precip (2008 and 2009), one year with -2 to -4 departures (2005) and 3 years with -6 or greater departures (2006, 2007, and 2010). 2011 is odd, as I showed the large deficits observed through the summer, and near normal precip during the fall, yet the yearly map is largely neutral out here.

post-5003-0-73812700-1341593535_thumb.jp

I don't recall my observations last year being reflected by this yearly summary map, but - again - I lost the data that could refute it so I'll concede 2011 as normal. Therefore, we have 3 years of the 7-year period as "normal" and 4 years of the period below normal, and 3 of those years as more than 6 inches below normal. There is certainly no surplus in this area. We have been in an overall dry pattern for a long time now.

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It's the Dynacast tool from MDA/EarthSat... it's a paid service, but I get it free since I work there :)

Thanks for the info!

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i was considering starting a rain thread last night.. the pattern looks pretty ripe

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i was considering starting a rain thread last night.. the pattern looks pretty ripe

GFS is loving it. Noticed that the 12z Euro kept it south of us. Didn't look at 00z.

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i was considering starting a rain thread last night.. the pattern looks pretty ripe

I was going to say, "Don't jinx it," but I remembered that that's the point of the thread.

Bring on rain! :flood:

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GFS is loving it. Noticed that the 12z Euro kept it south of us. Didn't look at 00z.

Euro's precip has been absolute crap lately over the US... I would actually lean towards the GFS.

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i knew it's been dry but if we don't get much rain tomorrow we're top 5 dry at DCA for the first 7 mo of the yr. our buddy 2002 wasn't much wetter though.

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i knew it's been dry but if we don't get much rain tomorrow we're top 5 dry at DCA for the first 7 mo of the yr. our buddy 2002 wasn't much wetter though.

With July's 2.81 inches of precipitation at DCA, there have now been seven consecutive months of below normal precipitation there, totaling just 15.93 inches. As you note, this is the 5th lowest total for the first seven months in DC history (142 years). However, precipitation for the last 12 months at DCA totals 44.44 inches, which is above average.

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We've had less than 1.3" IMBY since June 2. Yes, I'm conveniently ignorning the 1.25" we got on June 1, but it's just to highlight just how little rain my immediate area has gotten this summer. The popup, disorganized thundershowers have done very little - if anything - to alleviate the dry conditions. But it is interesting to see the reports of above-normal rainfall from many of the folks on here when I've been so dry. Just highlights the disorganization of the kinds of storms we've generally gotten this year.

We had gobs and gobs of rain in August-September of last year (over 10" from TS Lee), which is the only thing keeping us in the positive in terms of rainfall over the 12 months.

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We've had less than 1.3" IMBY since June 2. Yes, I'm conveniently ignorning the 1.25" we got on June 1, but it's just to highlight just how little rain my immediate area has gotten this summer. The popup, disorganized thundershowers have done very little - if anything - to alleviate the dry conditions. But it is interesting to see the reports of above-normal rainfall from many of the folks on here when I've been so dry. Just highlights the disorganization of the kinds of storms we've generally gotten this year.

We had gobs and gobs of rain in August-September of last year (over 10" from TS Lee), which is the only thing keeping us in the positive in terms of rainfall over the 12 months.

Weather is a very fickle thing. The last two years we couldn't buy summer storms out here - or any storm for that matter (with the exception of Apr / May last year). My grass literally was straw by the start of July each year. We even missed most of the tropical rains of last Aug/Sep, and our temps were running with, and often exceeding, DCA's. I thought I'd moved to the desert. This year has been completely opposite. Heck, yesterday alone, we got more than double your rainfall since June 2. Hopefully, an organized system will arrive soon for the entire region.

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