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Late June/Early July Extreme Heat Episode


Hoosier

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Very impressive to say the least. Wednesday may end up being much hotter than many of the area offices have forecast if that verifies.

While waiting on our chance at getting in on some of the heat it's been pretty fun watching things to the west. Hit 111 in Hill City KS yesterday. Much of eastern Colorado was over 105. Even Denver breached the century mark. Already this morning it's 96 in Goodland KS, and also Lamar CO. In fact the temp jumped from 83 to 96 in one hour at Lamar. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 112-115 degree readings in northwest KS later today.

Denver hit 104 yesterday. This ties the June monthly record and sets a new record for highest temp so early in the season (earliest 104+ had been 104 on 6/26/1994).

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Hate to keep bringing up areas west of our forums, but this is astonishing to me. 107 at 11am local time at Lamar CO, 104 Goodland KS. This is one hell of a heat dome.

Recent obs at Lamar are interesting...looks like mixing just kicked in.

8 AM MDT: 83/43, VRB wind 3 mph

9 AM MDT: 96/37, W wind 7 mph

10 AM MDT: 102/36, VRB wind 5 mph

11 AM MDT: 107/13, S wind 24 mph (gusting to 32 mph)

Also, Goodland's all-time high is 111 on 7/25/1940...they may come close today.

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I think Thursday and/or Friday (probably Thursday) will be the warmest day at LAF since 1988. 101 is the number to beat and I think we will. Recent runs of the GFS/ECMWF are quite different in terms of mixing depth but even taking a compromise would probably be enough to get the job done.

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DTX remains quite conservative, suggesting around 90/lower 90s on Thurs, while GRR discussing temps approaching 100. Euro shows upper 90s across lower MI on Thurs with T850s approaching 26-28C Thurs evening.

THey always are conservative. Last heatwave was example. It is July and it can get really hot!

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Very impressive to say the least.  Wednesday may end up being much hotter than many of the area offices have forecast if that verifies.

While waiting on our chance at getting in on some of the heat it's been pretty fun watching things to the west.  Hit 111 in Hill City KS yesterday.  Much of eastern Colorado was over 105.  Even Denver breached the century mark.  Already this morning it's 96 in Goodland KS, and also Lamar CO.  In fact the temp jumped from 83 to 96 in one hour at Lamar.  Wouldn't be surprised to see some 112-115 degree readings in northwest KS later today.

Hill City is at 113.

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That heat dome will expand to the northeast, even if Debby takes the GFS'ish track and crosses FL out into the Atlantic rather than moves westward to LA per Euro, which would increase subsidence north of it as Hoosier indicated. Dryness will contribute to exacerbating the high temps. Those Kansas high temp readings are amazing...and this is June!

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Hill City is at 113.

These temps are definitely overperforming...which could have implications for later this week in the Midwest.

Both Hill City and Goodland may break their June monthly records. Goodland has already tied theirs. All-time records are *probably* safe.

Hill City

Current temp: 113

June record: 114 (1933)

All-time record: 117

Goodland

Current temp: 109

June record: 109 (6/18/1936)

All-time record: 111 (7/25/1940)

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I guess they are feeling burned from last time? :lol:

I'm sure that has a little to do with it lol. If the Euro keeps coming in the way it has been I'm sure they'll at least bump it into the upper 90s in the next day or two. The MLI site itself has seemed to underperform compared to surrounding sites all season for whatever reason. Maybe that has a little to do with it too.

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If you can't beat'em, join 'em, eh Tim? I'm not looking for triple digits this far east, but betting on seeing 97-98 Thursday.

I don't like it, matter of fact I hate it...but I can't dismiss it. The historical part will keep tuned in I guess. Regardless, this summer is gonna suck. :thumbsdown:

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:ee:  

Good luck on the consecutive 100º days.

I haven't looked, nor do I want to...but I assume good old Chad is going something like 95, 108, 106. :lol:

Gets trickier out around Friday depending on how fast the ridge breaks down. Models are often a bit too quick so we'll see.

Haven't been to Chad's blog in a while, but you're probably right.

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For a historical perspective, here's the number of June days with 100º+ max temps in Indiana (longterm stations).

Evansville (1897-present): 24

Fort Wayne (1897- present): 5

Indianapolis: (1871-present): 8

South Bend (1893-present): 10

And the last occurrence in June at each site, all of them on the same date...

Evansville: June 25, 1988 (101º)

Fort Wayne: June 25, 1988 (106º)

Indianapolis: June 25, 1988 (102º)

South Bend: June 25, 1988 (104º)

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