Chicago WX Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Even knocking a few degrees off of the Euro would still make it a pretty impressive event by late June standards, which is still a little before the typical peak heat. I just noticed that 106 in South Bend on June 1. That is unbelievable. Not denying that. It got me thinking/researching about other June heat waves, and I'll have a blog post up tomorrow about the heat wave of late (and early) June 1936 for Indiana. Both were pretty impressive. But yes, that 106 at South Bend on June 1 is almost out of this world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 Not saying we will see something like this, but while we're killing time before the other 00z runs come in... The orange area in IL/IA/MO is 850 mb temps of 30C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Not saying we will see something like this, but while we're killing time before the other 00z runs come in... The orange area in IL/IA/MO is 850 mb temps of 30C So you're pretty much calling for one of the hottest days in Indiana's history? July 14, 1936 Evansville: 106º (daily max record) Fort Wayne: 106º (hottest day ever, tied with 6/25/1988 and 7/21/1934) Indianapolis: 106º (hottest day ever, tied with 7/21/1934) South Bend: 108º (second hottest ever) July 15, 1936 Evansville: 106º (daily max record) Fort Wayne: 92º Indianapolis: 103º (daily max record, tied with 1988) South Bend: 100º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I wish I could see Euro soundings but it must have decent mixing to be spitting out 2m temps like that. Mixing 28C from 850 mb to the surface would result in mid to upper 100's which is basically what the Euro is showing. Your weather passion is great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 Your weather passion is great! I love extremes...observing and predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 ORD/RFD records... ORD: 27th: 101/79 28th: 101/81 29th: 97/80 Last 100+: 102 - 7/24/05 June record high: 104 - 6/20/88 All time record high: 105 - 7/24/34 RFD: 27th: 103/75 28th: 103/75 29th: 103/75 Last 100+: 100 - 7/20/11 June record high: 106 - 6/1/34 All time record high: 112 - 7/14/36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 00z Euro is way east with Debby...landfall west of New Orleans. It's amazing how small short term changes are having so much impact on the eventual track. Let's see if it has any effects later on in terms of plugging up the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 00z Euro is way east with Debby...landfall west of New Orleans. It's amazing how small short term changes are having so much impact on the eventual track. Let's see if it has any effects later on in terms of plugging up the pattern. No changes through Thurs. Still +28C at 850mb into N. IL with widespread 100's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 No changes through Thurs. Still +28C at 850mb into N. IL with widespread 100's. Effects of the different track really start showing up in the extended... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 LOT THE NEXT FORECAST CONCERN COMES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON EXACTLY HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET...WITH THE ECMWF AND DGEX SHOWING HIGHS WELL ABOVE 100F BOTH DAYS WHILE THE GFS AND THE MOS BASED GUIDANCE PRODUCTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 90S. WHILE THE GFS HAS EXHIBITED A STRONG COLD BIAS THROUGH THIS WARM SEASON SO FAR...NOT REAL COMFORTABLE YET IN JUMPING ON HIGH TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 105F. SO...FOR NOW...WILL TREND TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MODEL SOLUTION ENVELOP AND GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100F FOR THURSDAY AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR FRIDAY. ONE WILDCARD IN THE TEMPERATURE PICTURE WILL BE A FEATURE WELL REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA. THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF AND MAKING LANDFALL ANYWHERE FROM LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA AS FAR AS PCPN OR CLOUD COVER IS CONCERNED...IT MAY ACTUALLY HELP LEAD TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS A LARGE AREA OF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE USUALLY OCCURS AHEAD OF SUCH SYSTEMS...AND THIS SUBSIDENCE COULD ACTUALLY HELP BRING HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND LESS CLOUDCOVER. SO...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 105F OR SO FOR THURSDAY ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Here is what Weather Underground is forecasting for me for the upcoming heat: http://www.wundergro...80&sp=KWISAUKV3 Wednesday Partly cloudy in the morning, then clear. High of 90F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph. Wednesday Night Clear. Low of 72F. Winds from the WSW at 10 to 15 mph. Thursday Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain in the afternoon. High of 113F with a heat index of 129F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%. Thursday Night Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 77F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.8 in. possible. Friday Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 93F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%. Friday Night Partly cloudy. Low of 68F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Saturday Clear. High of 95F. Winds from the West at 5 to 15 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 LOT THE NEXT FORECAST CONCERN COMES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON EXACTLY HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET...WITH THE ECMWF AND DGEX SHOWING HIGHS WELL ABOVE 100F BOTH DAYS WHILE THE GFS AND THE MOS BASED GUIDANCE PRODUCTS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 90S. WHILE THE GFS HAS EXHIBITED A STRONG COLD BIAS THROUGH THIS WARM SEASON SO FAR...NOT REAL COMFORTABLE YET IN JUMPING ON HIGH TEMPS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 105F. SO...FOR NOW...WILL TREND TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF THE MODEL SOLUTION ENVELOP AND GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100F FOR THURSDAY AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR FRIDAY. ONE WILDCARD IN THE TEMPERATURE PICTURE WILL BE A FEATURE WELL REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL AREA. THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN TRACKING A TROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE GULF AND MAKING LANDFALL ANYWHERE FROM LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA AS FAR AS PCPN OR CLOUD COVER IS CONCERNED...IT MAY ACTUALLY HELP LEAD TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS A LARGE AREA OF COMPENSATING SUBSIDENCE USUALLY OCCURS AHEAD OF SUCH SYSTEMS...AND THIS SUBSIDENCE COULD ACTUALLY HELP BRING HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND LESS CLOUDCOVER. SO...THE HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 105F OR SO FOR THURSDAY ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. As usual DVN throws a wet blanket on the heat wave. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO OFFER AROUND 100 FOR THE CWA HIGHS MID TO LATE WEEK...BUT THIS IS A RARE EVENT...AND THROUGH LIKELY TOO COOL...THE GFS MAY BE BETTER GIVEN RELATIVE SHALLOW MIXING WED-FRI. THUS...FOR MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GUIDANCE FORECAST SEEMS TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL...WITHOUT GOING FOR THE FULL POTENTIAL OF THE HEAT. HEAT WAVES...SOMETHING WHICH RECENTLY WAS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS...BUT TURNED OUT TO BE OVER FORECAST IN THE END LAST WEEK...SHOULD BE APPROACHED AS A HAZARD IN MANY WAYS. THIS SLOWER STEP BY STEP APPROACH SHOULD HELP KEEP OUR FORECAST FROM GOING TOO COOL OR TOO HOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 The warminista version of a weenie snow map..... Here is what Weather Underground is forecasting for me for the upcoming heat: http://www.wundergro...80&sp=KWISAUKV3 Wednesday Partly cloudy in the morning, then clear. High of 90F. Winds from the SSW at 10 to 15 mph. Wednesday Night Clear. Low of 72F. Winds from the WSW at 10 to 15 mph. Thursday Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain in the afternoon. High of 113F with a heat index of 129F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%. Thursday Night Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm. Low of 77F. Winds from the WSW at 5 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.8 in. possible. Friday Overcast with a chance of a thunderstorm. High of 93F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%. Friday Night Partly cloudy. Low of 68F. Winds from the WNW at 5 to 10 mph. Saturday Clear. High of 95F. Winds from the West at 5 to 15 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 The warminista version of a weenie snow map..... HAHAHA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 Can't recall seeing 30C verify in IL in my time. This map is a little 1930's-esque. Also showing highs of 110 in IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Can't recall seeing 30C verify in IL in my time. This map is a little 1930's-esque. Also showing highs of 110 in IA. Very impressive to say the least. Wednesday may end up being much hotter than many of the area offices have forecast if that verifies. While waiting on our chance at getting in on some of the heat it's been pretty fun watching things to the west. Hit 111 in Hill City KS yesterday. Much of eastern Colorado was over 105. Even Denver breached the century mark. Already this morning it's 96 in Goodland KS, and also Lamar CO. In fact the temp jumped from 83 to 96 in one hour at Lamar. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 112-115 degree readings in northwest KS later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 Very impressive to say the least. Wednesday may end up being much hotter than many of the area offices have forecast if that verifies. While waiting on our chance at getting in on some of the heat it's been pretty fun watching things to the west. Hit 111 in Hill City KS yesterday. Much of eastern Colorado was over 105. Even Denver breached the century mark. Already this morning it's 96 in Goodland KS, and also Lamar CO. In fact the temp jumped from 83 to 96 in one hour at Lamar. Wouldn't be surprised to see some 112-115 degree readings in northwest KS later today. I'm very curious to see how this performs out there relative to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 NAM shows excellent mixing over central/southern Iowa Wednesday. Just south of Des Moines, where 110+ degree surface temps are forecast (LOL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 NAM also has 700 mb temps of 18C in parts of IA/WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Amount of mixing tanks very quickly just east of the intense heat corridor on Wednesday. This is just 150 miles east of the above sounding (in eastern IA), where temps "only" make the mid 90s. This shows how important the amount of mixing will be later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Now getting into the SREF range. This is the max here. Mean values are a little less impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Wow. 102 at 10am local time in Lamar Colorado. This time yesterday they were at 95, and ended up hitting 110. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Can't recall seeing 30C verify in IL in my time. This map is a little 1930's-esque. Also showing highs of 110 in IA. Debby is too far east on this map! That could affect the placement of those 30°C 850mb temps. My point it up to 95° for Thursday. Then 89° for Wed, Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 Debby is too far east on this map! That could affect the placement of those 30°C 850mb temps. My point it up to 95° for Thursday. Then 89° for Wed, Fri. Trend has been east. Of course any westward wobble could throw things back west again but not happening yet. I don't think Debby is going to thwart the heat wave...based on posts here and afd's it could act to enhance subsidence/warming in some areas if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 GFS has +28C at 850mb into C. IL by Thurs evening. Ridge/thermal axis is a bit father south, which is probably due to Debby heading OTS in the ATL instead of pushing west across the Gulf Coast. We'll see what the ECMWF shows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 This Davis Vantage Pro2 site in Wallace KS is already up to 107. The highest temp of the year at this site before today was 107. With Hill City hitting 111 just to the northeast yesterday makes me think this site is very credible. Just incredible heat building out there to the west... http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KKSWALLA2&day=24&year=2012&month=6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 GFS has +28C at 850mb into C. IL by Thurs evening. Ridge/thermal axis is a bit father south, which is probably due to Debby heading OTS in the ATL instead of pushing west across the Gulf Coast. We'll see what the ECMWF shows... also pooling upper 70 to near 80 dews along frontal boundary from central/eastern IA to WI.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 also pooling upper 70 to near 80 dews along frontal boundary from central/eastern IA to WI.. Recent model performance doesn't inspire much confidence in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Hate to keep bringing up areas west of our forums, but this is astonishing to me. 107 at 11am local time at Lamar CO, 104 Goodland KS. This is one hell of a heat dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 I hate extreme heat more then extreme cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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