Hoosier Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I have to add it up, but I've had about 3.5" of moisture this month! Probably on the next update the D1 area will be trimmed back towards the Rock River. Would think lower MI is out of the D0 now too. I'm speculating here but I wonder if there is some reluctance to change things too much until the impact of snow melt is known. With the ground/subsurface being frozen in many areas and the moisture tied up in the snowpack it might make sense to err on the conservative side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I think Geos is correct. A lot of the precip that fell would have missed the cutoff for this week's update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 I'm speculating here but I wonder if there is some reluctance to change things too much until the impact of snow melt is known. With the ground/subsurface being frozen in many areas and the moisture tied up in the snowpack it might make sense to err on the conservative side. In the next week at least it looks like almost all the water will remain locked in place with the only melting from sunshine. So hopefully all the moisture sitting out there now will slowly infiltrate into the ground. The ground is frozen no doubt. Some of the precip. did miss the cutoff time - in fact all of it did on Tuesday north of LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The snow melt will do nothing here and to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I have to add it up, but I've had about 3.5" of moisture this month! Probably on the next update the D1 area will be trimmed back towards the Rock River. Would think lower MI is out of the D0 now too. Yea, theres no drought here.... I thought that 2 updates ago though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yea, theres no drought here.... I thought that 2 updates ago though. Nothing says drought like the 11th wettest winter in 140 years of record keeping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yea, theres no drought here.... I thought that 2 updates ago though. Nothing says drought like the 11th wettest winter in 140 years of record keeping! Much of that drought map is full of old data apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Some you fail to realize this is long term, not short term. So while the short term has been wetter and helping the overall situation, long term affects are still there...though they are slowy fading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 MI and most of the drought area is designated as L on the map which means long term dryness. It takes longer to resolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Some you fail to realize this is long term, not short term. So while the short term has been wetter and helping the overall situation, long term affects are still there...though they are slowy fading. Beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Lake MI looks above its Jan lows to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Some you fail to realize this is long term, not short term. So while the short term has been wetter and helping the overall situation, long term affects are still there...though they are slowy fading. Also gotta realize the time scale that's considered "long term" for drought is different then what we typically use for the long range wx threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 A lot of what has to do with the long term effects are lower than normal water tables, low rivers, wetlands and lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The GFS shows a TON of precip through 240 hours for the heart of the drought region, lets hope that pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 MI and most of the drought area is designated as L on the map which means long term dryness. It takes longer to resolve. I get that its a longterm deal. But its never seemed like we were in a drought, other than the usual summer dry spells which are common. 2011 was the all-time wettest year on record at Detroit and it seems like by spring 2012 we were in "dry" on the monitor. I always thought of droughts main cause as being a long period of a deficit of precipitation, but thats not the case here. 2011 was WAY wetter than normal, 2012 somewhat drier than normal (but didnt even crack the top 20 driest years) and 2013 is right back to being wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I get that its a longterm deal. But its never seemed like we were in a drought, other than the usual summer dry spells which are common. 2011 was the all-time wettest year on record at Detroit and it seems like by spring 2012 we were in "dry" on the monitor. I always thought of droughts main cause as being a long period of a deficit of precipitation, but thats not the case here. 2011 was WAY wetter than normal, 2012 somewhat drier than normal (but didnt even crack the top 20 driest years) and 2013 is right back to being wet. You have not been too many area lakes have you? Farmers around these parts are freaked, you can gather that by reading MSU agro forums. We are and continue to feel the effects of long term dryness around here. Its a drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 There are no quick fixes with this ongoing drought, but the 0z GEFS remain consistent on the pattern remaining active for the next two weeks for the Plains states...and eastward. Have to keep adding it up, little by little... 1-5 day totals 6-10 day totals 11-15 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 For the first time since last May, more than half of the Midwest region is out of the drought (50.11% on the new update). National numbers are still pretty bad. March has been dry so far in many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 21, 2013 Author Share Posted March 21, 2013 Drought is retreating back to the west of the MS River more and more. Eastern Iowa improving nicely. Looks like our subforum is destined to get out of the drought this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 21, 2013 Share Posted March 21, 2013 Drought is retreating back to the west of the MS River more and more. Eastern Iowa improving nicely. Looks like our subforum is destined to get out of the drought this spring. Very nice improvements to be sure. Been a pretty rainy winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 Precipitation % of normal year to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I get that its a longterm deal. But its never seemed like we were in a drought, other than the usual summer dry spells which are common. 2011 was the all-time wettest year on record at Detroit and it seems like by spring 2012 we were in "dry" on the monitor. I always thought of droughts main cause as being a long period of a deficit of precipitation, but thats not the case here. 2011 was WAY wetter than normal, 2012 somewhat drier than normal (but didnt even crack the top 20 driest years) and 2013 is right back to being wet. It seems to me the heat is also factored in. Hot and dry will do more damage than cool and dry. SE MI was on the very fringe anyways. My area and especially SW towards the Indiana border were bad. Last fall was still very dry. Pretty major improvement this winter though with plenty of rain and snow since January 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 26, 2013 Author Share Posted March 26, 2013 MKX has declared the drought is over for their region. Soil moisture has really increased with moisture amounts over 9" this year so far. AXUS73 KMKX 211520DGTMKX DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI1020 AM CDT THU MAR 21 2013 ...THE DROUGHT HAS ENDED OVER FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... .SYNOPSIS...A VERY WET AND SNOWY WINTER WHICH HAS CONTINUED INTOMARCH HAS GIVEN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THE NECESSARY AMOUNT OF MOISTURETO END THE DROUGHT. SUFFICIENT SOIL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR THEBEGINNING OF THE GROWING SEASON ONCE IT BEGINS. .LOCAL AREA AFFECTED...A DROUGHT IS NO LONGER OCCURRING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHEAST...OR EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .CLIMATE SUMMARY...WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN THISWINTER INTO EARLY SPRING WITH 8 TO 12 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENTPRECIPITATION. THIS IS 3 TO 5 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL OR 150 TO 185PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSINFROM DECEMBER 1 2012 THROUGH MARCH 20 2013... CITY COUNTY PCPN SURPLUS/DEFICIT NWS SULLIVAN JEFFERSON 11.34 4.89MILWAUKEE MILWAUKEE 11.69 4.91MADISON DANE 10.24 4.55RACINE RACINE 9.56 4.28KENOSHA KENOSHA 9.10 3.41 .SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...SOIL MOISTURE HAS IMPROVED GREATLY DUETO A WET WINTER. SUFFICIENT SOIL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR THE STARTOF THE GROWING SEASON. .GROUND WATER IMPACTS...WELL WATER LEVELS HAVE RISEN THIS WINTER ANDWILL RISE MORE ONCE THE SNOW MELTS AND THE GROUND THAWS. .RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS...WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATIONHAS FALLEN THIS WINTER ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. SEVERAL ROUNDS OFSNOW MELTS AND RAIN EVENTS HAVE RESULTED IN NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMALFLOWS ON AREA RIVERS. .AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...SUFFICIENT SOIL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR THESTART OF THE GROWING SEASON. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE CONDITION OF THE CROPS...PLEASE REFER TO THEUSDA WISCONSIN CROP PROGRESS REPORT AT THE FOLLOWING WEBSITEADDRESS... WWW.NASS.USDA.GOV/STATISTICS_BY_STATE/WISCONSIN/PUBLICATIONS/CROP_PROGRESS_&_CONDITION/2012/CWCURR.PDF .FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS CLASSIFIED AS LOW FIREDANGER BY THE WISCONSIN DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES...DUE TO THESNOW COVER AND OVERALL WINTER CONDITIONS. .PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES EARLYTHIS SPRING ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL OR POSSIBLY SLIGHTLYABOVE NORMAL BY LATE APRIL OR MAY. THERE ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHERPROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE THISSPRING. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FORNOVEMBER AND WINTER...PLEASE VISIT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERWEBSITE... HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 Soil moisture report for Illinois. http://climateillinois.wordpress.com/2013/03/25/good-news-on-soil-moisture/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Pretty dry first 40 days of meteorological Spring in the state of Indiana. Not good. Bloomington April: 0.30" -1.08" Since March 1: 2.54" -2.72" Evansville April: T -1.20" Since March 1: 4.08" -1.36" Fort Wayne April: 0.03" -1.04" Since March 1: 2.37" -1.41" Indianapolis April: T -1.10" Since March 1: 1.96" -2.70" Indianapolis Eagle Creek April: T -1.07" Since March 1: 1.46" -2.91" Lafayette April: 0.03" -0.90" Since March 1: 1.28" -2.32" Muncie April: T -1.10" Since March 1: 1.23" -2.82" Shelbyville April: T -1.09" Since March 1: 1.26" -3.26" South Bend April: 0.15" -0.76" Since March 1: 1.41" -1.92" Terre Haute April: 0.09" -0.81" Since March 1: 1.62" -2.65" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Running a slight negative departure for 30 days and modestly positive for 90 days. Rains today and tonight should eliminate the 30 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 Pretty dry first 40 days of meteorological Spring in the state of Indiana. Not good. Lafayette April: 0.03" -0.90" Since March 1: 1.28" -2.32" 1.48" so far today. Worked like a charm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 12, 2013 Author Share Posted April 12, 2013 D0 completely out of this area now. Looking good for most of our subforum. That patch west of Toledo will be history on the next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 D0 completely out of this area now. Looking good for most of our subforum. That patch west of Toledo will be history on the next update. Same thing here with the D0. Should see some decent improvements to the west/nw on out into the central/N.Plains on next weeks update and possibly the week after as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 16, 2013 Share Posted April 16, 2013 Local precipitation comparison at LAF, last year versus this year through April. January 2012: 2.31" +0.45" February 2012: 1.24" -0.52" March 2012: 1.92" -0.75" April 2012: 2.29" -1.25" Total: 7.76" -2.07" January 2013: 3.67" +1.81" February 2013: 2.28" +0.52" March 2013: 1.25" -1.42" April 2013: 3.33" +1.57" (through 5:00pm today) Total: 10.53" +2.48" We're probably in even better shape, locally, considering LAF lowballed the March 24-25 snowstorm...recording only 0.52" liquid with 10.0-11.5" snowfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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