0Z Guidance Discussion 12/15/2010

[Dr No]

1-2 into DC Metro. Cold snow too... probably lower 20's to start.

[Mitchel Volk]

NAM mainly only good 60hr and less GFS is better 88 and out.

[weathervswife]

Strange how the precip was shown to break up coming over the mountains a couple of days ago and now it's increasing. Great Great trends.

[Guest someguy]

0z GFS continues trend of 0z NAM... weter with more snow ending as ice for RIC

again heavier

[Ian]

We can but this coming storm's 500 pattern has signficant difference to the one Dr. No posted. I was just responding to him.

yeah i agree with that... im not quite sure why an nws office would mention etc. i guess there is a similarity or two but the differences are overwhelming as a comparative.

[Jim]

It looks like the H5 low on the 00Z GFS run at 42hr is a bit weaker than the H5 low at 54 hr from the 12z GFS run.

[Collegestudent11]

It looks like the trough is sharper than the 18z.

[baroclinic_instability]

GFS Height fields through 96 make me think this will be less developed than 18Z and more OTS.

[psuhoffman]

trough is way more positively tilted and the PV is not in a good spot this run....I doubt its going to end well.

[LVblizzard]

The low takes a track very similar to the 12z Euro on the 0z GFS.

[PhineasC]

GFS is a total miss.

[stormtracker]

Looks like the 12z Euro.

That would be a painful radar if that happens. Totally gips us all on this run. Not really gonna worry about it. Its still close enough at this point

[PhineasC]

Looks like the 12z Euro.

That would be a painful radar if that happens. Totally gips us all on this run. Not really gonna worry about it. Its still close enough at this point

Now no model shows a storm. That is bad news...

[baroclinic_instability]

Coastal Maine gets clobbered.

[winter_warlock]

Now no model shows a storm. That is bad news...

looking more like euro may be the model thats right on this time

[Anyweather]

Now no model shows a storm. That is bad news...

Dang.

Who'd of thunk the midweeker was the big one out of the two.

[Ridingtime]

Now no model shows a storm. That is bad news...

Every model has a storm just not close enough obviously. And at this time range I still believe that's a good thing, even with all the recent trends.

[clskinsfan]

looking more like euro may be the model thats right on this time

How bout almost every time.

[weathervswife]

Well the GFS has been about 2 or 3 runs behind the Euro with this storm. There is always the chance the0z Euro comes back east some (any) and we'll see the GFS catch up at 0z tomorrow.

[Guest someguy]

RIC gets hit 0.50"

s and e of rich .... 0.875 to 1.00" all snow

0z gfs further east makes more sense

[psuhoffman]

looking more like euro may be the model thats right on this time

euro was the first model to start the threat idea by showing a bomb... I think in this case all models have been poor with lack of continuity. How can you choose one permutation of the various scenarios offered by the euro in this case and declare it the winner?

[winter_warlock]

euro was the first model to start the threat idea by showing a bomb... I think in this case all models have been poor with lack of continuity. How can you choose one permutation of the various scenarios offered by the euro in this case and declare it the winner?

i didnt claim any model the winner, but to me it seems all the models are trending to the euro

[baroclinic_instability]

i didnt claim any model the winner, but to me it seems all the models are trending to the euro

No model will be "right" because all of the big three (CMC/ECMWF/GFS) at one point both had and did not have the storm.

[whiteout]

euro was the first model to start the threat idea by showing a bomb... I think in this case all models have been poor with lack of continuity. How can you choose one permutation of the various scenarios offered by the euro in this case and declare it the winner?

Yeah but the rest of the models have been playing catch-up to the Euro, at least several runs behind it. Yes the Euro did show it first but then backed off. Then the GFS showed it and is now finally backing off just like the Euro did just a day or so later. This is such a close call you cannot rule it out just yet but I dont look for the solution to be much different than what the Euro is showing now, we are getting into its deadly range. I think if the 12z Euro tomorrow still shows the OTS solution this one is over for those in the Northern MID ATL.

[Guest someguy]

Yeah but the rest of the models have been playing catch-up to the Euro, at least several runs behind it. Yes the Euro did show it first but then backed off. Then the GFS showed it and is now finally backing off just like the Euro did just a day or so later. This is such a close call you cannot rule it out just yet but I dont look for the solution to be much different than what the Euro is showing now, we are getting into its deadly range. I think if the 12z Euro tomorrow still shows the OTS solution this one is over for those in the Northern MID ATL.

GOOD POST

[baroclinic_instability]

Since this is the 0Z thread for CONUS, parts of CA/OR mountains are going to be clobbered with heavy rains/snow with potential flooding in this pattern.

[psuhoffman]

Yeah but the rest of the models have been playing catch-up to the Euro, at least several runs behind it. Yes the Euro did show it first but then backed off. Then the GFS showed it and is now finally backing off just like the Euro did just a day or so later. This is such a close call you cannot rule it out just yet but I dont look for the solution to be much different than what the Euro is showing now, we are getting into its deadly range. I think if the 12z Euro tomorrow still shows the OTS solution this one is over for those in the Northern MID ATL.

true but we all know (or at least should know) that the euro is the better model and often times others chase it around and this was the case this time also. However, it was not just one run, for several runs it did show a significant event so this time around it is not a total victory for the euro. If you want to say it caught onto the right idea first then yes, but that is so common I feel like it almost doesn't need to be said. Overall, all models are struggling right now with this synoptic setup. That given, after looking at the h5 on the 0z gfs it still would not take very much adjustment at all to make it a significant event. I doubt it will happen this time, but its not totally over. People react way too much to each model run.

[JMU2004]

Doesn't take much to get a 150 mile shift.......

[baroclinic_instability]

true but we all know (or at least should know) that the euro is the better model and often times others chase it around and this was the case this time also. However, it was not just one run, for several runs it did show a significant event so this time around it is not a total victory for the euro. If you want to say it caught onto the right idea first then yes, but that is so common I feel like it almost doesn't need to be said. Overall, all models are struggling right now with this synoptic setup. That given, after looking at the h5 on the 0z gfs it still would not take very much adjustment at all to make it a significant event. I doubt it will happen this time, but its not totally over. People react way too much to each model run.

I was giving about a 15-20% chance 2-3 days ago when all guidance suggested it. Now I would give it less than 10% for a good hit across the area. They are right, getting close enough where probs are going down with each run and it is becoming less of an overreaction.

[SnowGoose69]

We probably need to see a shift west by the GFS again or some sort of significant shift by the Euro or GEM...of course its unlikely the 00Z GEM could not be west of where its 12Z run was...we could potentially see a consensus towards a near miss by all the models...still in that case its not over by any means for LI/E CT/MA or even NYC....it may start becoming a longer shot for DC/BWI/PHL though.