Dr No Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looks like the NAM initalized decent tonight, when comparing it to the 18Z GFS 6hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 thru 36 looks a little slower with sys 1 but maybe a hair north, though prob not far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 pretty good qpf output across c/s va thru 48... dc area toward .1" now as well, nice shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 thru 36 looks a little slower with sys 1 but maybe a hair north, though prob not far NAM quite painful for us too far north round 1 better luck with round 2 let's hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yeah, inching north. I think it should be even a little more north as the cyclops is weaker and more compressed. Compare to 18Z. Does anyone know why the 18Z NAM QPF is wetter than the 0Z NAM QPF always...(problem on all storms)... known bias? The top part of the precip shield appears cut off (and cut off on the SE side of the 4 corners storm too)... does the model attempt to compensate for dry air on 0Z causing the QPF issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM quite painful for us too far north round 1 better luck with round 2 let's hope we'll see.. not a bad look for this range, may be some room for improvement if that 500 low over the ne can weaken/nudge north ever so slightly next few runs. i'd take anything -- but looks best for the seasonal jackpot (thus far) area I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 pretty good qpf output across c/s va thru 48... dc area toward .1" now as well, nice shift Yeah, solid jump north on the NAM since earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 we'll see.. not a bad look for this range, may be some room for improvement if that 500 low over the ne can weaken/nudge north ever so slightly next few runs. i'd take anything -- but looks best for the seasonal jackpot (thus far) area I guess. yeah, we've certainly learned the hard way over the years how much the NAM can shift in 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM quite painful for us too far north round 1 better luck with round 2 let's hope Disagree. NAM came north a bit...its not much qpf, but not quite the whiff it had been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM a hair flatter at 54 hrs vs. 18z 60 hrs fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Disagree. NAM came north a bit...its not much qpf, but not quite the whiff it had been Even though it has come north, it still looks like its battling the confluence and doesnt want to go too much further.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Disagree. NAM came north a bit...its not much qpf, but not quite the whiff it had been Yeah, but the more north the 1st impulse makes it, the harder it will be for the 2nd to dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 RIC takes a good hit on the overrunning event as per NAM...probably 3-5" snow there. The 12z ECM also showed around .5" QPF for RIC, with all of it being of the frozen variety...probably 90% snow with a bit of icing/sleet on top, which will help preserve the snowpack as we have a moderation of the pattern Friday/Saturday before the next cold shot comes down. They've had a very good winter so far in central/southern Virginia and may expand their snowfall significantly this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 For round two, NAM is noticeably flatter out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 come along way since 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 For round two, NAM is noticeably flatter out west Is that good or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Is that good or bad? Bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 come along way since 6z Pretty much in line with the 12z ECM, and the GFS has also trended towards more significant overrunning. You'll get more this week, Midlo. Congratulations on the good start to winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Is that good or bad? here's a hint when it comes to those sorts of things you want storms a lot like women, got it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 And by the looks of it, it can come even further looking at the trends. come along way since 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Hard to not notice the northward trend of this. Hope it keeps coming. At least at this point it's putting out some qpf for nva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 part of the problem with this run vs. last run is that its holding the trough out west longer than the 18z run don;t know how that plays out yet, of course arguments both ways I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Hard to not notice the northward trend of this. Hope it keeps coming. At least at this point it's putting out some qpf for nva. For Storm #2. 66 vs. 18z 72 Noticeably flatter and a touch slower than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 This run is surprisingly close if you compare it to 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varicweather Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index.php?satellite=west&channel=ir4&coverage=nh&file=jpg&imgoranim=8&anim_method=flash Perhaps the NAM is now picking up on the fire hose of moisture headed for Northern CA as depicted on the goes West satellite loop. This could be a factor in increasing the qpf for both storm #1 and possibly #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 For Storm #2. 66 vs. 18z 72 Noticeably flatter and a touch slower than 18z. Yes and the vortex over new england is stronger to the west which keeps the flow over the east flatter, that's not a good look for the weekend storm compared to the earlier run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yes and the vortex over new england is stronger to the west which keeps the flow over the east flatter, that's not a good look for the weekend storm compared to the earlier run. which is why a slower evolution may be OK in the end to give the Canadian vortex time to get the heck out of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 which is why a slower evolution may be OK in the end to give the Canadian vortex time to get the heck out of there Hr. 78 looks very flat/progressive. Not sure how much of a stom is possible with that look. You can also notice cold air is already making SE progress through VA by this hour. Pretty big difference between the 0z and 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Yes and the vortex over new england is stronger to the west which keeps the flow over the east flatter, that's not a good look for the weekend storm compared to the earlier run. Yeah, doesn't look as good as 18z, but who knows.....its the Nam after 48 hours, so it'll change a few times...and hopefully for the better. Hour 78 does't look THAT bad I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 too much thought into longer range nam imo. to me it looks like it might be a little slower, but nothing to freak out about either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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