SBUWX23 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looks like the 00z GFS Ensemble mean is east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 this is classic weenie BS and excuse making filled with poor reasoning and weenie thinking you are totally missing the point... MODEL A says out to sea... Model B say Out to sea Model C out to sea... Model E says HECS. then Model E says Out to sea. Yet NOW you think it doesnt matter b/c you happened to not like Model E ? You are so all over the place it makes it hard to respond sometimes but I will try First you seem to think I am making excuses for why this will happen, if you read my previous posts I have never thought this was going to happen and still do not. My response was to people who were getting excited over each GFS run, and then conversely getting upset over tonights run of the GFS. I thought it was a long shot before, and still find it a long shot now, but one run of the GFS alone does not make me change my mind about anything. I am not making any predictions of what the models will do, just that they can change radically inside 100 hours. Frankly its impossible to say what they will do. The setup as they depict right now is not good and would not lead to a storm, but tomorrow they might shift the axis of the trough 100 miles west and suddenly everything changes. I am not going to try to predict if the models are wrong about their placement of the H5 low over new england, or the amplitude of the trough axis out west or the ridge in the rockies and so forth.... I never made any comments about any such predictions. As for your memory of the events I describe I can tell you everything I posted I am 100 percent certain is fact. I do not know if you are simple having memory issues or are simply telling lies but several statements you made below are simply not factually correct. The most obvious one being your statement about the February storm in 1996. The clipper that was forecasted to bomb too far east. The night before I remember clearly watching the fox newscast and the forecast was for coastal NJ to get pummeled but DC would get a few flurries and that was it. The next morning I woke up to 2" already and ended up with 9" and some got 12" in the area. If you were working at LWX NWS at the time and your office knew that was coming perhaps you should have told the news that had no idea on the evening telecast and said nothing of any warnings or advisories. Those are facts, argue if you want but you are wrong. Several of your other "memories" of models before events are also inaccurate or lies. I do not mind if you want to attack my meterological knowledge as you are no doubt more knowledgeable then me in that area but do not question my memory, I take that very personally when things I know to be fact are questioned arbitrarily without evidence to support the accusations. You are a very skilled forecaster and I very much appreciate and enjoy your analysis but sometimes a random comment will set you off for some reason and you fly off the handle a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'm from the deep south so don't think I am writing off this system or have a vested interest in its outcome, but what does the rest of the 0z GFS show in the long-term. In the radio show last night, DT alluded to the fact that the block would continue to retrograde and may pop a +PNA possibly leading to a central US trough with a dose of cold air to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'm from the deep south so don't think I am writing off this system or have a vested interest in its outcome, but what does the rest of the 0z GFS show in the long-term. In the radio show last night, DT alluded to the fact that the block would continue to retrograde and may pop a +PNA possibly leading to a central US trough with a dose of cold air to follow. GFS stays cold....no big warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 0Z ECM is a big no-go for the east coast storm. I am giving this storm a less than 5% chance of happening now. Doesn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 ec started this mess, and now ec closes the door on this mess. Next!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 well at least the 6z nam is a slight improvement over 0z..... trendddddddd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 ec started this mess, and now ec closes the door on this mess. Next!!! Ec is just a mess this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Ec is just a mess this winter! ?? It first showed this threat of a major snowstorm at days 8-9, fantasy land for the models, and then showed a consistent no-go/out to sea since then. And there is no verification on the matter yet. It nailed the last storm over the weekend from 7 days out, with a couple wavering runs in between. I wouldn't call it a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.