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June 1st - 12th Severe Weather Thread


andyhb

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Tough season. Looks like a few already gave up that went to Canada. Ivey ended up way too far west.

Honestly that is chasing in the northern plains. Never a for sure, slam dunk day. Big events up there have to rely on a stout cap to break late (Northwood, 2007 a classic). Lack of mountainous terrain/drylines for initiation means it is always "conditional" it seems.

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Honestly that is chasing in the northern plains. Never a for sure, slam dunk day. Big events up there have to rely on a stout cap to break late (Northwood, 2007 a classic). Lack of mountainous terrain/drylines for initiation means it is always "conditional" it seems.

yeah.. that area seems like it's either awesome or lame. but overall there have not been that many "great" chase days this yr. lots of marginal stuff or stuff that doesn't work out right. should start counting the mesos SPC does that call for explosive supercell development and an 80% chance of a watch that don't come to fruition. ;)

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Tough season for sure. There hasn't been one system this spring that has really shown it's teeth, unless you count the front range activity that we have seen the last couple of days.

wish we'd stayed out for some of that at least but nothing was really terribly spectacular or that unusual for this time of year. i think most people missed the good part of the wyoming tornado..

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Tough season for sure. There hasn't been one system this spring that has really shown it's teeth, unless you count the front range activity that we have seen the last couple of days.

Quiet springs seem to be followed by surprisingly active summers and falls, like 2009 and 2006. Counting down to fall tornado season currently.

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wish we'd stayed out for some of that at least but nothing was really terribly spectacular or that unusual for this time of year. i think most people missed the good part of the wyoming tornado..

Yeah that is getting late in the season for the prime chase area, most peeps cut it off (the chase I mean) around the end of May. But that is based on what has happened in years past. It's seems to me that it has gotten warmer up here over the last ten years, and the atmosphere can hold more water, which would signal a stronger severe season up here. I think that in the next few years the chasers could end up chasing into mid June, instead of cutting the chase season off before June 1. Just my honest opinion.

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Yeah that is getting late in the season for the prime chase area, most peeps cut it off (the chase I mean) around the end of May. But that is based on what has happened in years past. It's seems to me that it has gotten warmer up here over the last ten years, and the atmosphere can hold more water, which would signal a stronger severe season up here. I think that in the next few years the chasers could end up chasing into mid June, instead of cutting the chase season off before June 1. Just my honest opinion.

Depending on what you define as "prime area," I'd say chase season typically does extend well into June. The real dropoff in synoptically-obvious setups seems to occur around June 20-25, after which you rely on mesoscale accidents and maybe a couple NW flow events in the Dakotas until late August or so. This is far from a typical season, however, and it appears areas like NE/IA/SD will miss out on their prime season of early-mid June.

I think the most striking distinction between other slow Plains years like 2006 and 2009 vs. this year is that those years saw the hotspot displaced to areas farther east -- particularly 2006. This year, that's not the case at all; there was no hotspot. This was probably nearly the worst-case scenario for U.S. spring severe weather in general, with the Omega block consistently parked in such a way as to screw over both the Plains and Midwest/Mid South. Either that, or the January-like eastern troughing that took residence early-mid May.

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I think there is a chance we could see less than 1000 tornadoes this year, which would be the first time in quite awhile...

Apr/May are still preliminary but taking 80% of those plus Jan-Mar confirmed would put the Jan-May total a bit shy of 600. 2009, which has been mentioned as a comparison to this year, had 584 tornadoes from Jan-May and 562 from Jun-Dec for a total of 1146. Obviously no 2 years are exactly alike but I'd still lean toward over 1000 by the time it's done.

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OPP reporting a possible tornado near Emo, Ontario in the Rainy River District bordering northern Minnesota.

TORNADO WARNING

ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 8:26 PM EDT SUNDAY 10 JUNE 2012.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING FOR:

=NEW= FORT FRANCES - EMO - RAINY RIVER.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

==DISCUSSION==

AT 7:20 PM CDT RADAR AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK INDICATES THAT A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR EMO ONTARIO IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT

80 KM/H. OPP REPORTS SUGGEST THAT A TORNADO MAY BE OCCURRING WITH

THIS STORM. THIS THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL IN

EXCESS OF 2 CM, WIND GUSTS TO 100 KM/H, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

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06Z: Currently tracking a line of severe storms from Central Illinois down to Northern Arkansas. Right now showing areas in and around Boone, Ar-Baxter, AR

with the strongest potential for severe weather. Area of storms moving into atmosphere of LI's around -9, SFC CAPE around 2200 j/kg, 0-3KM CAPE around 317 j/kg

Plenty of instability across the area. Believe we could see hail up to 1.5" and winds around 75mph. Thoughts?

Data Source:http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm

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Quick updates still seeing a nice line of strong to severe storms running from Conway, AR to Paducah, KY. Cities like Little Rock, Memphis are in the path of these storms. I am thinking strong straight line winds will be the main threat with winds up to 70mph possible. Isolated hail up to 1.7" is also possible, in addition to heavy rainfall. Storms moving continue into a nice unstable environment. Thoughts.

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Tomorrow has some possibilities in NM/TX pending ongoing convection.

This setup is piquing my interest, if only because I imagine it could be the best deep-layer shear we see south of the KS/OK border from here on out. Anywhere from AMA to TCC along I-40 could provide some beautiful storms with strong directional shear. The WRF-NMM shows discrete initiation late afternoon throughout E NM.

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Extended the thread until tomorrow.

This was a snippet from the latest D2, btw:

A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY APPEARS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH

THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING THE IMPACTS FROM D1 CONVECTION AND THE

POSSIBILITY OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER/OUTFLOW AFFECTING SUBSEQUENT

DEVELOPMENT. TSTMS MAY BE ON-GOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN

PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN OK/N

TX. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER

DEVELOPING...EARLY MORNING STORMS MAY INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING

GENERALLY SEWD ACROSS ERN TX. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO

DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TUE AFTN AND MOVE E/SEWD

DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND

THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE

HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND MOVE

SEWD POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

DEPENDING ON THE IMPACTS OF D1 CONVECTION...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN

PLAINS MAY NEED INCREASING SVR PROBABILITIES AND POSSIBLY

CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

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Looking at area from Wichita Falls to Abilene to Dyess to Fort Worth with potential for some severe weather today. Current indices in this area are showing LI's around -5, Surface CAPE around 1400 j/kg, ML CAPE around 1750 j/kg. Plenty of instability across this region. I am seeing potentail for hail up to 1.9" and wind gusts as high as 75mph across this area. Thoughts on today's convection

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1138

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1032 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...OK...TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 121532Z - 121700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS SPREADING SEWD FROM PORTIONS OF NWRN TX MAY POSE AN

INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE

AFTERNOON. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED AHEAD OF THIS

DEVELOPING CONVECTION.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NWRN TX AND SWRN OK HAVE

PERSISTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH RECENT INCREASE IN

LIGHTNING AND REFLECTIVITY OCCURRING WITH THE STORM MOVING THROUGH

BAYLOR COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE INITIATED OVERNIGHT

ACROSS ERN NM AS A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPED EWD

FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS DEEP-LAYER

FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED ACROSS NRN TX/SRN OK ALSO APPEARS TO BE

PLAYING A ROLE IN SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION. AIR PARCEL TRAJECTORIES

FEEDING THIS ACTIVITY ORIGINATE IN A VERY UNSTABLE REGIME PARTIALLY

REPRESENTED BY MAF MORNING SOUNDING. WHILE STRONG CAPPING MAY BE

INHIBITING MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN THIS REGIME THIS MORNING...SOME

GUIDANCE SUCH AS NSSL WRF-ARW...APPEAR TO MAINTAIN A CLUSTER OF

STORMS IN THE FORM OF A SMALL MCS MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE DAY. IF

THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR

STORMS TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZING AIR MASS

THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS NCNTRL TX. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL THREATS

COULD THEREFORE EVOLVE AND WARRANT A WATCH ACROSS THESE AREAS IN THE

NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER NORTH INTO OK...LESS INSTABILITY BUT

WEAKER INHIBITION AND MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MARGINAL SEVERE

STORM POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THESE LIMITATIONS MAY

PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.

..CARBIN/MEAD.. 06/12/2012

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

post-32-0-21458800-1339515454_thumb.gif

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