Ian Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 seems the hrrr was overdoing things today at least based on current activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 Roger Hill with another nice shot yesterday... Just plain sick. Could never get tired of looking at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Winnipeg, ND, near the U.S./ Canada, where they coincide with the best SVR Wx Parameters... You mean Winnipeg, Manitoba... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 seems the hrrr was overdoing things today at least based on current activity No kidding. We are waiting in Baker, MT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 No kidding. We are waiting in Baker, MT... Miles City for us, haha. Yeah these clouds need to go away plz. It was pretty neat driving through the dryline though. We took Kestrel readings ever 2-3 miles, and watched the Td increase from 33 to 61 in about 30 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 southern MB is the place to be tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 8, 2012 Author Share Posted June 8, 2012 Nasty parameters from the 18z NAM around 21z near Winnipeg, right near the warm front. Depending upon how much capping goes, there could be some problems there tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Northern Minnesota looks fairly decent on Sunday as well. Wind/shear profile are a bit lackluster though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 As for interests south of I-94 after today... you win, 2012. Don't let the door hit ya on the way out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 As for interests south of I-94 after today... you win, 2012. Don't let the door hit ya on the way out... Looks like there was an earthquake off the southern CA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 Magnitude 5.5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 For those chasers out on Sunday that can't get into Canada, I think the best chance of seeing tornadic activity in MN will be between Alexandria and and Mankato. I know this is way to early to set a target area, but I would monitor that area, as storms could get going before the arrival of the cold front. I haven't looked further south in the slight risk area, so I have no idea about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 cell blowing up sw of glasgow looking mighty nice pretty quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 Definitely seeing some solid VV signatures across Southern MB tomorrow afternoon and evening from the 00z NAM (at least from the twisterdata graphics). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 I think we could have a shot at seeing a strong tornado in southern MB tomorrow. The Winnepeg area looks like a hotspot, with the persistent and decent hodographs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 I think we could have a shot at seeing a strong tornado in southern MB tomorrow. The Winnepeg area looks like a hotspot, with the persistent and decent hodographs. Some of them aren't just decent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 cell blowing up sw of glasgow looking mighty nice pretty quick Nice TBSS. Jeff Piotrowski reporting an "on and off" tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Nice TBSS. Jeff Piotrowski reporting an "on and off" tornado. lotsa hail.. warning size seems small. edit: weird save on image -- oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 I'd be southwest of Winnipeg tomorrow afternoon by 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 For Sunday, I basically agree with this, however I think the strongest EHI's could very well extend to the south say about 75-100 miles. I think the model is just a bit to fast bring the cold front through the metro TC's area, if it is to fast by say 3 hours we could see higher EHI's west of the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 I'd be southwest of Winnipeg tomorrow afternoon by 21z. Agreed, WRT to my family, they live in the three areas I mentioned (Brandon, Portage la Prairie, Winnipeg) as well as Steinbach, south of Winnipeg, so I will keep them informed the best I can for sure. Derek should be out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Agreed, WRT to my family, they live in the three areas I mentioned (Brandon, Portage la Prairie, Winnipeg) as well as Steinbach, south of Winnipeg, so I will keep them informed the best I can for sure. Derek should be out... First order of business will be ensuring everything is good to go at the radio station. Gotta help the part-timer get in the groove about broadcasting warnings. Regarding the threat, it's the best supercell/tornado set-up I've seen for southern Manitoba since late June, 2007. The year of the Elie and Pipestone tornadoes (on back to back days). Latest NAM has caved to the slower solution which is what the rest of the models have been showing for awhile already. Initial threat should be Brandon and points south around supper time (my guess at when the cap breaks). Then watch out further east. I do expect upscale growth into an MCS by late evening as the storms approach the Red River Valley. Looking forward to it but also nervous at the same time. These set-ups don't come about all that often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 First order of business will be ensuring everything is good to go at the radio station. Gotta help the part-timer get in the groove about broadcasting warnings. Regarding the threat, it's the best supercell/tornado set-up I've seen for southern Manitoba since late June, 2007. The year of the Elie and Pipestone tornadoes (on back to back days). Latest NAM has caved to the slower solution which is what the rest of the models have been showing for awhile already. Initial threat should be Brandon and points south around supper time (my guess at when the cap breaks). Then watch out further east. I do expect upscale growth into an MCS by late evening as the storms approach the Red River Valley. Looking forward to it but also nervous at the same time. These set-ups don't come about all that often. I'm inclined to agree. As a whole, the event certainly sets up south of the lakes, where the vast majority of the population lives in MB, which, of course, is a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Back in April, some of the seasonal forecast models were hinting that the baroclinic zone would set set up over the Upper Mississippi Valley and maybe into Canada based on their temp profiles. I used the ACCU free site to see Bret Anderson artist interpretation of the Euro out 4 weeks, and than looked at the CFS V2 to see if it was similar, and than to top it off I looked at the JMA season forecast. This event that could unfold the next two days is no surprise to me, as I thought southern Canada could be interesting this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Nice TBSS. Jeff Piotrowski reporting an "on and off" tornado. I'm pretty skeptical. We were on this one for a long time with a clear view of the base and didn't see anything. Unless it was a different cell. We watched the one just north of the reservoir. Nice structure for being so low-topped though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 As of 09Z, seeing a line of severe storms just west of the Minot, ND area, running from just north of Dickson to the Canadian border. LI's in that area running about -6, 0-3KM MLCAPE running around 800 j/kg. Looking at potential for hail up to 1.5" and wind gusts up to 65mph as this line pushes eastward. Here is Minot, ND output http://smartwxmodel.net/10.pdf for the next 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weunice Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 I'm pretty skeptical. We were on this one for a long time with a clear view of the base and didn't see anything. Unless it was a different cell. We watched the one just north of the reservoir. Nice structure for being so low-topped though. I did notice that when he was reporting the on and off tornadoes they did not TOR warn the storm. Apparently more than just you were skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Any thoughts about Manitoba today? EHI and CAPE don't look as good as they did last night IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 9, 2012 Author Share Posted June 9, 2012 Any thoughts about Manitoba today? EHI and CAPE don't look as good as they did last night IMO. Yeah, that overnight complex killed the threat into MB largely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 9, 2012 Share Posted June 9, 2012 Yeah, that overnight complex killed the threat. I don't know if I'd go that far. A major moisture convergence bullseye sitting between MOT and BIS near the sfc low right now but still under the H7 thermal ridge. If something can fire it would have those strongly back winds east of the low and near the northward moving warm front. Plenty of 0-6km shear.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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