Minnesota Meso Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Ok looking at the observations reported out of Hallock MN at 8pm central time. we are looking at 84/66 with winds out of the se at 13knts with storms building to their sw, with storms tracking towards them, it could get interesting around that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Tough season. Looks like a few already gave up that went to Canada. Ivey ended up way too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Tough season. Looks like a few already gave up that went to Canada. Ivey ended up way too far west. Honestly that is chasing in the northern plains. Never a for sure, slam dunk day. Big events up there have to rely on a stout cap to break late (Northwood, 2007 a classic). Lack of mountainous terrain/drylines for initiation means it is always "conditional" it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 tornado warnings expanded for several rural municipalities in southern manitoba. walnut and toonie sized hail have been reported near altona Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Tough season. Looks like a few already gave up that went to Canada. Ivey ended up way too far west. Tough season for sure. There hasn't been one system this spring that has really shown it's teeth, unless you count the front range activity that we have seen the last couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Honestly that is chasing in the northern plains. Never a for sure, slam dunk day. Big events up there have to rely on a stout cap to break late (Northwood, 2007 a classic). Lack of mountainous terrain/drylines for initiation means it is always "conditional" it seems. yeah.. that area seems like it's either awesome or lame. but overall there have not been that many "great" chase days this yr. lots of marginal stuff or stuff that doesn't work out right. should start counting the mesos SPC does that call for explosive supercell development and an 80% chance of a watch that don't come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Tough season for sure. There hasn't been one system this spring that has really shown it's teeth, unless you count the front range activity that we have seen the last couple of days. wish we'd stayed out for some of that at least but nothing was really terribly spectacular or that unusual for this time of year. i think most people missed the good part of the wyoming tornado.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Tough season for sure. There hasn't been one system this spring that has really shown it's teeth, unless you count the front range activity that we have seen the last couple of days. Quiet springs seem to be followed by surprisingly active summers and falls, like 2009 and 2006. Counting down to fall tornado season currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 wish we'd stayed out for some of that at least but nothing was really terribly spectacular or that unusual for this time of year. i think most people missed the good part of the wyoming tornado.. Yeah that is getting late in the season for the prime chase area, most peeps cut it off (the chase I mean) around the end of May. But that is based on what has happened in years past. It's seems to me that it has gotten warmer up here over the last ten years, and the atmosphere can hold more water, which would signal a stronger severe season up here. I think that in the next few years the chasers could end up chasing into mid June, instead of cutting the chase season off before June 1. Just my honest opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Yeah that is getting late in the season for the prime chase area, most peeps cut it off (the chase I mean) around the end of May. But that is based on what has happened in years past. It's seems to me that it has gotten warmer up here over the last ten years, and the atmosphere can hold more water, which would signal a stronger severe season up here. I think that in the next few years the chasers could end up chasing into mid June, instead of cutting the chase season off before June 1. Just my honest opinion. Depending on what you define as "prime area," I'd say chase season typically does extend well into June. The real dropoff in synoptically-obvious setups seems to occur around June 20-25, after which you rely on mesoscale accidents and maybe a couple NW flow events in the Dakotas until late August or so. This is far from a typical season, however, and it appears areas like NE/IA/SD will miss out on their prime season of early-mid June. I think the most striking distinction between other slow Plains years like 2006 and 2009 vs. this year is that those years saw the hotspot displaced to areas farther east -- particularly 2006. This year, that's not the case at all; there was no hotspot. This was probably nearly the worst-case scenario for U.S. spring severe weather in general, with the Omega block consistently parked in such a way as to screw over both the Plains and Midwest/Mid South. Either that, or the January-like eastern troughing that took residence early-mid May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 10, 2012 Author Share Posted June 10, 2012 I think there is a chance we could see less than 1000 tornadoes this year, which would be the first time in quite awhile... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 I think there is a chance we could see less than 1000 tornadoes this year, which would be the first time in quite awhile... Apr/May are still preliminary but taking 80% of those plus Jan-Mar confirmed would put the Jan-May total a bit shy of 600. 2009, which has been mentioned as a comparison to this year, had 584 tornadoes from Jan-May and 562 from Jun-Dec for a total of 1146. Obviously no 2 years are exactly alike but I'd still lean toward over 1000 by the time it's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 I think there is a chance we could see less than 1000 tornadoes this year, which would be the first time in quite awhile... And with today's technology and systems...to get less than 1000 tornadoes really stands to say something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 The 06z NAM, 06z GFS, and the 00z ECMWF showing favorable hodographs across much of Minnesota today for the severe weather risk in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Euro long range looks nice for severe in the upper plains. It's showed that several times this year though and it hasn't verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted June 10, 2012 Share Posted June 10, 2012 Now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 OPP reporting a possible tornado near Emo, Ontario in the Rainy River District bordering northern Minnesota. TORNADO WARNING ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:26 PM EDT SUNDAY 10 JUNE 2012. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= FORT FRANCES - EMO - RAINY RIVER. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== AT 7:20 PM CDT RADAR AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK INDICATES THAT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR EMO ONTARIO IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 80 KM/H. OPP REPORTS SUGGEST THAT A TORNADO MAY BE OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. THIS THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 CM, WIND GUSTS TO 100 KM/H, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 a few pics from today from a storm just south of town as i left work \ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 06Z: Currently tracking a line of severe storms from Central Illinois down to Northern Arkansas. Right now showing areas in and around Boone, Ar-Baxter, AR with the strongest potential for severe weather. Area of storms moving into atmosphere of LI's around -9, SFC CAPE around 2200 j/kg, 0-3KM CAPE around 317 j/kg Plenty of instability across the area. Believe we could see hail up to 1.5" and winds around 75mph. Thoughts? Data Source:http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Quick updates still seeing a nice line of strong to severe storms running from Conway, AR to Paducah, KY. Cities like Little Rock, Memphis are in the path of these storms. I am thinking strong straight line winds will be the main threat with winds up to 70mph possible. Isolated hail up to 1.7" is also possible, in addition to heavy rainfall. Storms moving continue into a nice unstable environment. Thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Tomorrow has some possibilities in NM/TX pending ongoing convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted June 11, 2012 Share Posted June 11, 2012 Tomorrow has some possibilities in NM/TX pending ongoing convection. This setup is piquing my interest, if only because I imagine it could be the best deep-layer shear we see south of the KS/OK border from here on out. Anywhere from AMA to TCC along I-40 could provide some beautiful storms with strong directional shear. The WRF-NMM shows discrete initiation late afternoon throughout E NM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2012 Author Share Posted June 12, 2012 Extended the thread until tomorrow. This was a snippet from the latest D2, btw: A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE DAY APPEARS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION...WITHTHE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING THE IMPACTS FROM D1 CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER/OUTFLOW AFFECTING SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT. TSTMS MAY BE ON-GOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN OK/N TX. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DEVELOPING...EARLY MORNING STORMS MAY INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING GENERALLY SEWD ACROSS ERN TX. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS TUE AFTN AND MOVE E/SEWD DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS AND THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND MOVE SEWD POSING A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. DEPENDING ON THE IMPACTS OF D1 CONVECTION...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY NEED INCREASING SVR PROBABILITIES AND POSSIBLY CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Looking at area from Wichita Falls to Abilene to Dyess to Fort Worth with potential for some severe weather today. Current indices in this area are showing LI's around -5, Surface CAPE around 1400 j/kg, ML CAPE around 1750 j/kg. Plenty of instability across this region. I am seeing potentail for hail up to 1.9" and wind gusts as high as 75mph across this area. Thoughts on today's convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1138 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1032 AM CDT TUE JUN 12 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...OK...TX CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 121532Z - 121700Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS SPREADING SEWD FROM PORTIONS OF NWRN TX MAY POSE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION. DISCUSSION...TSTMS NOW MOVING ACROSS NWRN TX AND SWRN OK HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH RECENT INCREASE IN LIGHTNING AND REFLECTIVITY OCCURRING WITH THE STORM MOVING THROUGH BAYLOR COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE INITIATED OVERNIGHT ACROSS ERN NM AS A SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPED EWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS DEEP-LAYER FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED ACROSS NRN TX/SRN OK ALSO APPEARS TO BE PLAYING A ROLE IN SUSTAINING THE CONVECTION. AIR PARCEL TRAJECTORIES FEEDING THIS ACTIVITY ORIGINATE IN A VERY UNSTABLE REGIME PARTIALLY REPRESENTED BY MAF MORNING SOUNDING. WHILE STRONG CAPPING MAY BE INHIBITING MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN THIS REGIME THIS MORNING...SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS NSSL WRF-ARW...APPEAR TO MAINTAIN A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN THE FORM OF A SMALL MCS MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE DAY. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BECOME ROOTED IN THE DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZING AIR MASS THAT WILL EXIST ACROSS NCNTRL TX. WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL THREATS COULD THEREFORE EVOLVE AND WARRANT A WATCH ACROSS THESE AREAS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FARTHER NORTH INTO OK...LESS INSTABILITY BUT WEAKER INHIBITION AND MID LEVEL FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR MARGINAL SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TO EVOLVE WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THESE LIMITATIONS MAY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WATCH NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. ..CARBIN/MEAD.. 06/12/2012 ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Latest meso-analysis for west Texas early this afternoon is showing CAPE nearing 5,000 J/kg, very little if any CIN, and 3km Helicity nearing 300 units. The table is set for an active afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 That's a pretty big Slight Risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 That's a pretty big Slight Risk. and chance of storms for everyone. yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 12, 2012 Share Posted June 12, 2012 This could get interesting about a hour or two from now. The one thing that will more than likely limit tornado development today/tonight will be very high Liquid Condesation Levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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