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April 14th, 2012 Plains High Risk


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Seems to be very little ongoing convection atm within the risk area outside of the complex now pushing E of Tulsa. Anything else expected to fire prior to main initiation later this afternoon? I know the NAM shows some stuff in N OK around 15z but we are getting into nowcast range at the point.

Been noticing the clouds developing/cooling a bit in W OK this morning. Not sure if whatever is causing that will push up some showers/t-storms or not though. Might be what the NAM was seeing.

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Ah, site I had looked at had the wrong start time - 1PM isn't quite as bad, I guess.

However the Oklahoma Spring Game is in fact at 2PM.

Oklahoma State Spring game is fortunately not today.

Not that I assume they attract nearly as many people anyway, I assume, but fortunately the K-State, Kansas and Tulsa Spring games are not today.

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I wrote this scale while I was at school yesterday. Some is be different than my original.

TORrisk Scale

CAPE

1. 1000 j/kg to 2000 j/kg

2. 2000 j/kg to 3000 j/kg

3. 3000+ j/kg

EHI

1. 2-4

2. 4-7

3. 7+

SCP

1. 12 to 20

2. 20 to 28

3. 28+

STP

1. 2-6

2. 6-8

3. 8+

To use, you use the current parameters to find the numbers. For example, let's say the current paramters for Location X are

1475 j/kg CAPE

4 EHI

20 SCP

4 STP

That would translate to 1,2,2,1.

(Note, always round up if you have a parameter that is right on the border of two numbers, such as 20 SCP)

Since thier are equal numbers of 2 and 1, the final TORrisk number is 1.5

If thier were 3 1s, the TORrisk would be 1. If thier were 3 2s, it would be 2.

NOTE: If you have numbers that are all 3s, the TORrisk number is 4, the highest possible TORrisk number.

Any questions?

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anybody know if this is the largest expansion of High Risk in history ? Has to be the most in years. no ?

I guess we can't say they screwed up this go around... unless this outbreak severely underplays.

I don't think so, there have been many high risk days extending from NE into OK in the past. This event I think will work out as expected for KS and NE, OK I am not so sure....especially once south of an Enid-Stillwater line. North of there I think one or 2 cells will fire.

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