Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 <p> Winds look much to light for upslope. Thanks, hope this explodes and pulses up as it approaches, always like a closed 850 south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 <p> Thanks, hope this explodes and pulses up as it approaches, always like a closed 850 south of us. This is a large product of WAA and frontogenesis in the mid levels IMO. I don't see a CCB type deal. When that happens, you are more at the mercy of banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Let's see how bad this busts. 06z NAM model extraction for TAN. 6"+ for me? Loltastic! 30 03/31 12Z 33 32 72 7 0.20 0.00 541 554 -3.6 -18.1 1016 100 SN 000OVC302 2.1 0.2 33 03/31 15Z 32 32 65 7 0.27 0.00 541 554 -4.5 -17.5 1016 100 SN 000OVC331 2.7 0.3 36 03/31 18Z 33 32 60 6 0.16 0.00 541 553 -2.9 -18.0 1015 100 -SN 000OVC286 1.6 0.3 12z NAM was a tad less but still over 5". Bust-o-rama incoming. 21 03/31 09Z 33 32 56 3 0.07 0.00 540 554 -3.8 -18.1 1017 100 SN 002OVC236 0.7 0.5 24 03/31 12Z 32 32 82 4 0.23 0.00 541 554 -4.2 -18.2 1016 100 SN 000OVC347 2.4 0.0 27 03/31 15Z 35 33 50 6 0.15 0.00 541 553 -5.1 -17.8 1016 100 -SN 000OVC340 1.5 6.1 30 03/31 18Z 38 33 59 9 0.07 0.00 540 552 -4.1 -18.4 1015 100 -SN 008OVC132 0.6 13.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 This is a large product of WAA and frontogenesis in the mid levels IMO. I don't see a CCB type deal. When that happens, you are more at the mercy of banding. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 <p> This is a large product of WAA and frontogenesis in the mid levels IMO. I don't see a CCB type deal. When that happens, you are more at the mercy of banding. Yea opens up as it approaches, the NAM has decent banding, so did the Euro in some respects. Its still easy to envision a total bust too. Should be a fun morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 <p> My bet is Will /Pete/ Mitch max out with Atlantic inflow and colder surface temps should be able to snow right to the CT/RI/MA shores i'd think. obviously 2k is a good place to be by definition but surface temps for precip type will probably just hinge on intensity. i don't see much of BL issue until later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 <p>Yea opens up as it approaches, the NAM has decent banding, so did the Euro in some respects. Its still easy to envision a total bust too. Should be a fun morning. If you look at the soundings, you can see they are kind of funky looking with areas of drier air on the profile. That may mean that it's not a big uniform blob of QPF incoming. Now if this blob maintains itself better than what the GFS shows, you'll likely see a more uniform look to the echoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 <p> should be able to snow right to the CT/RI/MA shores i'd think. obviously 2k is a good place to be by definition but surface temps for precip type will probably just hinge on intensity. i don't see much of BL issue until later in the day. If you look at the soundings, you can see they are kind of funky looking with areas of drier air on the profile. That may mean that it's not a big uniform blob of QPF incoming. Now if this blob maintains itself better than what the GFS shows, you'll likely see a more uniform look to the echoes. You guys rock, how sad is it the best period of this winter for chances is appearing now. Man I still think a bookender could pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 i hate the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 <p> i hate the NAM. MM5? there has got to be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 i hate the NAM. Pretty useless as of right now. I agree with your thoughts on temp profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 should be able to snow right to the CT/RI/MA shores i'd think. obviously 2k is a good place to be by definition but surface temps for precip type will probably just hinge on intensity. i don't see much of BL issue until later in the day. Agreed. A forecast for all rain at BDL??? Come on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 GFS came north. I suppose it's not a shock given those nowcast trends we spoke about in MI right now. Congrats Kevin, Ginx, and Bob. Weenies flopping too and fro? No...it's the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 should be able to snow right to the CT/RI/MA shores i'd think. obviously 2k is a good place to be by definition but surface temps for precip type will probably just hinge on intensity. i don't see much of BL issue until later in the day. I agree that intensity probably determines p-type in the lowlands or white rain vs. accum. snow. NWS seems to disagree with both of us, though... the biggest P&C accum I can find is 1-2 in the Cats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Agreed. A forecast for all rain at BDL??? Come on Tonight: Rain likely before 3am, then snow. Low around 37. North wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Saturday: Rain and snow before 11am, then a chance of rain. High near 44. Northeast wind between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 <p> My bet is Will /Pete/ Mitch max out with Atlantic inflow and colder surface temps I'm hoping to beat Scooter's seasonal snowfall with just this minor event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Agreed. A forecast for all rain at BDL??? Come on SHORT TERM.....BELK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 All I can say is NWS better be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Weenies flopping too and fro? No...it's the GFS I hope the euro nudges a bit north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 I'm hoping to beat Scooter's seasonal snowfall with just this minor event. What a dink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Congrats ME Sunday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Congrats ME Sunday Night. Is Sunday night off the table for SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I hope the euro nudges a bit north as well. For yours and GAYS sake I hope so..but please keep .45-.50 over KTOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Is Sunday night off the table for SNE? Tough to say, but I think the trajectory is not favorable for SNE at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Tonight: Rain likely before 3am, then snow. Low around 37. North wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Saturday: Rain and snow before 11am, then a chance of rain. High near 44. Northeast wind between 6 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. I didn't see myself was just going on what other had said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 For yours and GAYS sake I hope so..but please keep .45-.50 over KTOL Eh, I'm not even going to be home for it anyways. Besides, the best chance is south and I'll be in PYM tonight and tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 Agreed. A forecast for all rain at BDL??? Come on don't know about accumulation, but seems like that would be tough to accomplish. even on the milder models, soundings would support some snow...wbz looked like it was ~500-700' at BDL on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Well the ZFP has an inch for tonight at BDL, so they must have updated it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2012 Author Share Posted March 30, 2012 Another little tease on the GFS for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2012 Share Posted March 30, 2012 I think we are going to be to warm for any snow here on sun-mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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