Mr Torchey Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Even 55-60 this time of year with the strength of the sun is just awesome, cant believe how much sun I have gotten so early in the year its just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2012 Author Share Posted March 21, 2012 This month? I'm not sure we beat 1945...the cooldown will probably keep this under that and maybe 1946 too, but we shall see as we get closer. I dunno... by this time Friday night we'll be up around +13 for the month, considering we are closer +10 at ORH already and we got to lob a couple of hefty 25 to 30+ers on top of that.. Then, we're banking on a "cool down" - something that has underperformed for 10 straight months and counting? As is ...sure, but it won't shock me if this persistence to not be cold for any plausible reason continues, it wouldn't shock me if it doesn't materialize that great. Hard to knock consistency. I'm actually more hopeful for the first week of April - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 I dunno... by this time Friday night we'll be up around +13 for the month, considering we are closer +10 at ORH and we got to lob a couple of hefty 25 to 30+ on top of that.. Then, we're banking on a "cool down" - something that has underperformed for 10 straight months and counting? As is ...sure, but it won't shock me if this persistence to not be cold for reason continues, it wouldn't shock me if it doesn't materialize that great. Hard to knock consistency. I'm actually more hopeful for the first week of April - Well we need to finish at +10.7F for the month to break 1945. ORH is about +9.5 right now...we will be around +11.7 by this time Thursday I think. We would then need the final 9 days to average around +8 to finish at +10.7F which might be an issue...because even if we are still above average during the "cooldown", a string of +3s and +5s will knock us back. +9.9 would break the 1946 record for 2nd place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Fail on their PR teams part. Embrace the torch. Show people having a good time in Ts and sunglasses. Don't pretend it's midwinter lol. Yeah. 51.9 here and getting foggy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 This is from HM, apparently he thinks the mild winter was caused by tsunami deris http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/heavy-thunderstorms-why-so-warm/62999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Well we need to finish at +10.7F for the month to break 1945. ORH is about +9.5 right now...we will be around +11.7 by this time Thursday I think. We would then need the final 9 days to average around +8 to finish at +10.7F which might be an issue...because even if we are still above average during the "cooldown", a string of +3s and +5s will knock us back. +9.9 would break the 1946 record for 2nd place. What's incredible is the first 5 days were below normal, 6-8" of snow, followed by a cool winter day, 1-2" more of snow, a few more cool days...then TORCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 This is from HM, apparently he thinks the mild winter was caused by tsunami deris http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/heavy-thunderstorms-why-so-warm/62999 We don't refer to Margusity as HM. Our HM is an elite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 We don't refer to Margusity as HM. Our HM is an elite. so we call margusity thsi village idiot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 We don't refer to Margusity as HM. Our HM is an elite. First line I may be nuts but I been trying to figure out why this winter was so warm and why the spring is now just amazingly warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 First line I may be nuts but I been trying to figure out why this winter was so warm and why the spring is now just amazingly warm. What the f**k was he smoking/snorting/licking/sniffing when he thought of this theory????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 This is from HM, apparently he thinks the mild winter was caused by tsunami deris http://www.accuweath...y-so-warm/62999 This was talked about awhile back. There's definitely a correlation between debris and SST's. http://www.epa.gov/region9/marine-debris/pdf/MarineDebris-NPacFinalAprvd.pdf More importantly, we should probably take a look at where it's likely heading in the years ahead. How important of a factor will be something the historians can review, but the truth be told I doubt we're at the point where we can understand what effect this has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 So the tsunami melted all my snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2012 Author Share Posted March 21, 2012 Well we need to finish at +10.7F for the month to break 1945. ORH is about +9.5 right now...we will be around +11.7 by this time Thursday I think. We would then need the final 9 days to average around +8 to finish at +10.7F which might be an issue...because even if we are still above average during the "cooldown", a string of +3s and +5s will knock us back. +9.9 would break the 1946 record for 2nd place. I think we are underestimating the scale of positive departures over the next two days. 62/53 with a breeze in ORH - if this were July, that would be 82/73 craziness... haha. Anyway, if their low stays in the mid 50s and they get to 79 tomorrow, that's going to be +35 day; repeats the next day. If that happens ...eh... Look, I agree - odds are it fails to be the record with 10 days to go. Just sayin'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 What the f**k was he smoking/snorting/licking/sniffing when he thought of this theory????? When NOAA and others have studied debris fields they found a significant correlation between them and SSTs. That was before Japan was partially wiped off the map. It's probably not a coincidence the warm water coincides with the debris field. Whether it added .5C or 5c, who knows. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025326X07001397 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 This is from HM, apparently he thinks the mild winter was caused by tsunami deris http://www.accuweath...y-so-warm/62999 Apparently he doesn't like to proofread....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 When NOAA and others have studied debris fields they found a significant correlation between them and SSTs. That was before Japan was partially wiped off the map. It's probably not a coincidence the warm water coincides with the debris field. Whether it added .5C or 5c, who knows. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025326X07001397 I still am rather skeptical of this theory thatt he has presented. It may be due to the fact that it is Henry M and he has the "crazy" factor that goes along with him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 I think we are underestimating the scale of positive departures over the next two days. 62/53 with a breeze in ORH - if this were July, that would be 82/73 craziness... haha. Anyway, if their low stays in the mid 50s and they get to 79 tomorrow, that's going to be +35 day; repeats the next day. If that happens ...eh... Look, I agree - odds are it fails to be the record with 10 days to go. Just sayin'... We can't get a +35 day unless its like 80/60...I gave us a pair of +24s though perhaps we get more like +27 or something. But even then its hard to hold above +10 for the month when you even get some days near normal...if the cooldown is brief enough and under performs, I think we can break the record, but right now I think it will be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2012 Author Share Posted March 21, 2012 We can't get a +35 day unless its like 80/60...I gave us a pair of +24s though perhaps we get more like +27 or something. But even then its hard to hold above +10 for the month when you even get some days near normal...if the cooldown is brief enough and under performs, I think we can break the record, but right now I think it will be tough. I don't think that's right... The 19th at ORH (KTAN) had 78/50, and they got +28 out of that. Thus, a hypothetical 79/55 would thus have to be +34 ...although, maybe +33 or +32 because we are gaining climatologically. A hypothetical 80/60 is thus +40 ..which (lol) that may ironically be the next day. Edit: ...I added wrong. Hypothetical (79+55)/2 = 67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 I don't think that's right... The 19th at ORH (KTAN) had 78/50, and they got +28 out of that. This, a hypothetical 79/55 would thus have to be +34 ...although, maybe +33 or +32 because we are gaining climatologically. A hypothetical 80/60 is thus +40 ..which (lol) that may ironically be the next day. I may be off here...but in late March ORH averages like 28/46 I believe, they definitely don't average 20/40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Even if something sounds far-fetched you should never really discount any theory, unless you have a great deal of evidence to say otherwise. I've talked with a few people who believe that the massive earthquake that occurred in Japan could have possibly had a major effect on the weather, some reports suggest that the earth's axis was shifted by like 10'' or something which really isn't as small as it seems. There is just so much we don't understand that's foolish to really discount anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 I may be off here...but in late March ORH averages like 28/46 I believe, they definitely don't average 20/40. The math is wrong. A +1 max and +5 min is a +3 mean..not a +6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 The math is wrong. A +1 max and +5 min is a +3 mean..not a +6. Yep...didn't catch that. That's why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 I don't think that's right... The 19th at ORH (KTAN) had 78/50, and they got +28 out of that. This, a hypothetical 79/55 would thus have to be +34 ...although, maybe +33 or +32 because we are gaining climatologically. A hypothetical 80/60 is thus +40 ..which (lol) that may ironically be the next day. 79/55 would be +34 on the max and +27 on the min which would be about a +30 on the mean. I think our low temp will be lower than that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2012 Author Share Posted March 21, 2012 The math is wrong. A +1 max and +5 min is a +3 mean..not a +6. Right I corrected that... I believe the day night average is 38 ...so it would be 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2012 Author Share Posted March 21, 2012 79/55 would be +34 on the max and +27 on the min which would be about a +30 on the mean. I think our low temp will be lower than that though. Right, I edited that correction in... The wind is up... not seeing much decouple tonight - eh could be wrong, sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2012 Author Share Posted March 21, 2012 I tell you... the sting of this warm event is really much more impressive relative to norms, in the north country. That's the wow zone in all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Hey does anyone no were i can find an update on the NAO,PNA,and AO? NOAA has not updated in quit some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 I tell you... the sting of this warm event is really much more impressive relative to norms, in the north country. That's the wow zone in all this. Yeah NNE is getting staggering departures as impressive as the ones down here already are. I mean places like Freyburg ME going 80/40 is sick compared to their climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2012 Author Share Posted March 21, 2012 Yeah NNE is getting staggering departures as impressive as the ones down here already are. I mean places like Freyburg ME going 80/40 is sick compared to their climo. And I'm floored at BTV, too - jesus. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21, 2012 Author Share Posted March 21, 2012 Looks like about 30C in the 2-meter on the 00z NAM for Thurs ..circa 4pm at BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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