ChrisM Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Are we going to have a huge trop season with these high ssts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Models usually underestimate warming in front of the fropa..and we'll see them warm again as we get closer..I would say there's a 70% chance of some spots hitting 89-90 Maybe a place like ASH could sneak in an 88-90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 As we perhaps move into a nino I would imagine we will start to get some precip heading into later spring and summer, and while ssts are one factor in tropical storms, the upper air environment is much more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Models usually underestimate warming in front of the fropa..and we'll see them warm again as we get closer..I would say there's a 70% chance of some spots hitting 89-90 I don't see how 90 is possible unless models are grossly underforecasting 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I made it to 78.3 today, not as warm as yesterday but still a torch (obviously). The biggest difference should be a much warmer night tonight....NWS has upper 40s whereas I made it down to 49.7 last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Coming off a very mild winter, we have been lulled into a false sense of reality, if this potential historical torch had followed a normal winter it would have more special. My neighbors and clients are actually walking around as if this is may, and we are done with cool weather and that this is the new normal. Its starting to annoy me, bring on cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I don't see how 90 is possible unless models are grossly underforecasting 850 temps. 12/KM Mt Tolland lapse rate. Temps aloft too cool I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 12/KM Mt Tolland lapse rate. Temps aloft too cool I think. Thursday has the hallmarks of a all-time record type of day except 850s are just too cool. Need to do better than +12... really +14 or a bit more to get to 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Thursday has the hallmarks of a all-time record type of day except 850s are just too cool. Need to do better than +12... really +14 or a bit more to get to 90. This will probably do better than it normally would given all the parameters in place, but you literally are pushing the equations that govern that atmosphere, to get 90..lol. Only way is if models bust too cool at 850 and I'm not sure about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 BTW I did see forsythia in full bloom today. Haven't been looking but they popped out to me today. Also seeing buds on a lot of trees here in the Valley. I know metherb and ctblizz are all excited about such things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 This will probably do better than it normally would given all the parameters in place, but you literally are pushing the equations that govern that atmosphere, to get 90..lol. Only way is if models bust too cool at 850 and I'm not sure about that. Yeah the snow melt up north on Thursday is going to go insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 BTW I did see forsythia in full bloom today. Haven't been looking but they popped out to me today. Also seeing buds on a lot of trees here in the Valley. I know metherb and ctblizz are all excited about such things. I've seen the typical weenie scrub trees that normally have leaves come out in mid April, show up. Really freaking early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I've seen the typical weenie scrub trees that normally have leaves come out in mid April, show up. Really freaking early. Damaging freeze possible? Especially given the weekend cooldown doesn't look all that cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 It's really weird out. I was just grilling outside with a beer and it feels like how it should 2 months from now. I keep looking around and saying to myself that I need to clean stuff up, and then I remind myself it's March 20. It feels great, but boy are people in for a surprise if they think Spring is here for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Damaging freeze possible? Especially given the weekend cooldown doesn't look all that cool. Mon night could be a good freeze if the Euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Thursday has the hallmarks of a all-time record type of day except 850s are just too cool. Need to do better than +12... really +14 or a bit more to get to 90. To me..it's a day where you go above all guidance.. I would throw an 88 on the board and mention 90 is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 To me..it's a day where you go above all guidance.. I would throw an 88 on the board and mention 90 is possible But it's not possible with what the models have right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Azaela's have some flowers opening in my yard,,and the lilacs leaves are all partially out and as I said earlier forsythia's look like tomorrow is the day they pop yellow flowers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Logan still with an onshore wind, although they are variable now. What a stubborn place to bust into the warmer air this time of year. I'm not far at all from them and live near the water, but that peninsula is just enough to screw them out of warmer air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 But it's not possible with what the models have right now. Just my gut feeling..and how dry it is ..and with strong west flow,,and no snowcover upstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Azaela's have some flowers opening in my yard,,and the lilacs leaves are all partially out and as I said earlier forsythia's look like tomorrow is the day they pop yellow flowers.. I have that and have not seen anything close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I have that and have not seen anything close. I was just out with kids and we were walking around the yard, as my oldest daughter's teacher asked her to look around their yard and see what is blooming so we walked around..I'm 100% serious. Honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I was just out with kids and we were walking around the yard, as my oldest daughter's teacher asked her to look around their yard and see what is blooming so we walked around..I'm 100% serious. Honestly I'm not doubting you..just haven't seen it yet. I have seen some trees start to flower, including magnolias which is just beyond insane. Maybe it's that mutated fertilizer you use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I'm not doubting you..just haven't seen it yet. I have seen some trees start to flower, including magnolias which is just beyond insane. Maybe it's that mutated fertilizer you use. The lilac bushes all have tiny green leaves already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 The lilac bushes all have tiny green leaves already I could see that. I have these stupid hedges that have little green leaves as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I have that and have not seen anything close. There must be something weird in the water here in jp cause literally about half of the trees here put some leaves out today. Closer to bmc had much fewer leaves. I'll take some pics tomorrow or thurs cause it's crazy. All size trees, big and small. I noticed especially that a lot of maples had little leaves out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Coming off a very mild winter, we have been lulled into a false sense of reality, if this potential historical torch had followed a normal winter it would have more special. My neighbors and clients are actually walking around as if this is may, and we are done with cool weather and that this is the new normal. Its starting to annoy me, bring on cold. LolWho da fook are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 There must be something weird in the water here in jp cause literally about half of the trees here put some leaves out today. Closer to bmc had much fewer leaves. I'll take some pics tomorrow or thurs cause it's crazy. All size trees, big and small. I noticed especially that a lot of maples had little leaves out today. Must be an underground hot spring because I have not seen one maple tree or birch..etc sprout a leave from Andover to Boston..lol. The normal earlier fruit trees do have some little green leaves, but they always weenie out in the warm weather and leaf out early...just not this dam early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I have that and have not seen anything close. Obviously I sit some 500+ west of u guys, but yes the azaleas are blooming. No shocker they are blooming out east too. I think the warm winter combine with the warmth aided in rapid blooms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 The trees near my building in Leominster have a bit of that hazy green sheen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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