Snow_Miser Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 The Hi-Res models initialized at 12z today which is 7 am this morning. That means to accurately compare the radars on the Hi Res Models to the actual radar, you would need to compare hour 14 of the Hi-Res models to the radar. Take a look. They seem slower with the precipitation than what is occuring right now. They don't have the precipitation into eastern IL. Compare: http://radar.weather...entgrtlakes.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Just a quick question, when do the NMM/ARW come out? I'm most interested to see those, since those are most helpful in this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Just a quick question, when do the NMM/ARW come out? I'm most interested to see those, since those are most helpful in this timeframe. 12ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 12ish Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 FWIW the 23z HRRR was VERY VERY warm for this storm, with the 0C 850 mb temperatures being a good 10-20 miles NE of NYC when precipitation hasn't even started yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 FWIW the 23z HRRR was VERY VERY warm for this storm, with the 0C 850 mb temperatures being a good 10-20 miles NE of NYC when precipitation hasn't even started yet. wow. Montauk colder in a winter storm than western LI? strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 wow. Montauk colder in a winter storm than western LI? strange. Yeah, it will definitely look weird with the SW to NE progression of the isothermic contours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Yeah, it will definitely look weird with the SW to NE progression of the isothermic contours. Actually, Montauk will be colder than White plans, and Binghamton even.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Actually, Montauk will be colder than White plans, and Binghamton even.... And the Poconos. If the HRRR verifies, the WWAs in NE PA and NW NJ would look ridiculous, because even they have a brief icy mix to all rain on the HRRR it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 And the Poconos. If the HRRR verifies, the WWAs in NE PA and NW NJ would look ridiculous, because even they have a brief icy mix to all rain on the HRRR it seems. This is WAY outside the HRRR range right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 This is WAY outside the HRRR range right now. Not way out of the range, but I'm basing that on the fact that 1) The P Type is already starting in the Poconos in the coldest locations as a brief icy mix. (ZR). 2) With a SE/E wind progged to occur, that would quickly eliminate all low level cold in a matter of a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 what mt holly said about the models on fb Lots of up and downs in the model verification over the upper midwest, the wrf looks better at 850mb where its warmer, the gfs looks better at 925mb where in general its colder than forecast. gfs precipitation field looks best with its 6 hr qpf verification. Both model crude snowfall estimates for the last 6 hrs around Minneapolis were too southeast. The wrf-nmm is the coldest of the six models. no denying they all are suggesting a front end heavy start, or in general a 3 to 6 hour precip burst event, but even the wrf-nmm has warm air arriving at 6-7K about an hour or two after precipitation is suppose to start there. Its also saturated at that level before the precipitation starts, so dynamic cooling has to compensate for the warm air advection (60 knots of wind at that level). Even raising the Morristown bufkit sounding to 1000 feet, only gives us 1.1" of snow as a Morris County estimate, if anything that sounding configuration would support more sleet than snow. We can see how the snowfall orientation with this one may verify more nw to se than the traditional sw to ne because of the position of the high in Quebec. We'll have tonight's model run to see if any adjustments have to be made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Looks like a really solid event for I-90 from ALB to BOS. Could be a foot or more along much of this corridor. In Boston it'll be tougher but if these spokes of energy and coastal low can spawn some good enough banding, they could do very well too. The upper Catskills through the Adirondacks will also get slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 43 here now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 It is 34 degrees here in Central Morris County, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 FWIW the 23z HRRR was VERY VERY warm for this storm, with the 0C 850 mb temperatures being a good 10-20 miles NE of NYC when precipitation hasn't even started yet. It's the HRRR at hour 15 - even 6-10 hours out it still couldn't figure out where the axis of heavier accumulation would be with the last storm. While a warmer outcome than modeled is perhaps possible, with the 0z NAM also warmer than its previous run, but I'd rather wait until the HRRR gets closer to the actual time frame before taking it more seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 With clear to partly cloudy skies, calm winds and 20 degree dps, what did you expect? 100 meters over your head the temp is probably around 37F and that won't fall as quickly regardless of how well the surface radiates. Edit...this for those who are noting surface temps near freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 With clear to partly cloudy skies, calm winds and 20 degree dps, what did you expect? 100 meters over your head the temp is probably around 37F and that won't fall as quickly regardless of how well the surface radiates. Edit...this for those who are noting surface temps near freezing. Cooling nicely over here in northport 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 With clear to partly cloudy skies, calm winds and 20 degree dps, what did you expect? 100 meters over your head the temp is probably around 37F and that won't fall as quickly regardless of how well the surface radiates. Edit...this for those who are noting surface temps near freezing. It's the classic weenie comment, "surface temps are colder than progged, OMG!!". Just ignore the strong primary cutting through the Lakes, torching the mid levels, and everything else that blows about this synoptic pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 It's the classic weenie comment, "surface temps are colder than progged, OMG!!". Just ignore the strong primary cutting through the Lakes, torching the mid levels, and everything else that blows about this synoptic pattern. Or the SE winds that will develop in the AM.... - OT-nice moon set in the Western sky right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 It's 68 in my bedroom. Huge bust coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Down to 36 degrees here in sleepy hollow, was at 41 three hours ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Down to 36 degrees here in sleepy hollow, was at 41 three hours ago.... you probably have a clear sky and light winds=net radiational cooling . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 you probably have a clear sky and light winds=net radiational cooling . Could this have any implications for the storm? Also dewpoint is 21 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Could this have any implications for the storm? Also dewpoint is 21 degrees no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 As of 3z everyone north of Trenton is below 0c @ 850mb.. http://www.spc.noaa.....php?sector=16# But temps right now most likely will have zero impact on the events for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 KLGA RUC BUFKIT forecast sounding at 20Z Tuesday. Hard to snow with this profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 00Z Tuesday RGEM Total Snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 KLGA RUC BUFKIT forecast sounding at 20Z Tuesday. Hard to snow with this profile. Probably some kind of rain/snow mix. Not looking good for any accums near the city from this. Quick transition to rain. Up by White Plains might be better for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Still expecting a short period of snow and sleet following the trend. The last few time this wnter I was forecasted to have plain rain by NWS we scored some frozen on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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