sauss06 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Is everyone watching the monthly departure from normal at MDT? Through the 17th the departure was +8.4 degrees. Today's departure was 17 degrees above normal which means that 0.9 degrees of additional positive departure is added onto the 8.4 placing MDT at +9.3 degrees through the 18th. From the looks of the upcoming week's forecast the departure should have grown to between 12 and 13 degrees above by next weekend when we "cool down" to the low 60's for highs. Can someone please look up the top 5 or 10 warmest Marches for MDT? It seems like we may destroy the previous number one slot by the end of the month. I have no idea what year the warmest MDT March would have been. I don't think I can remember ever having such a prolonged and extreme departure from normal on the warm side during a cold month ever...and I'm 52! Just wait and see....we will probably turn around on April first and have a huge snowstorm during the first week of April. Who here is old enough to remember April 6-7, 1982? NYC NWS issued a blizzard warning for a snowstorm that dumped 9" of snow and set two record low temps for both days at 21 degrees. The high temperature on the 7th with full sun after the storm had departed only reached 32 degrees. So, stranger things have indeed happened before in the past. We'll see what later this month into next brings our way. Meanwhile, I will keep updating the MDT departure each day until this insanity ends. I'm old enough, but i don't remember that? and i wasn't keeping notes then either...however, i do have in my notes, April 7, 2003 we had 4" below is from Pennlive, Harrisburgs patriot News online: The highest average temperature for March is 49.6 degrees, set in 1921. So far, the average temperature this month is 47.8, which would rank as the third-highest of all time if the month ended Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Is everyone watching the monthly departure from normal at MDT? Through the 17th the departure was +8.4 degrees. Today's departure was 17 degrees above normal which means that 0.9 degrees of additional positive departure is added onto the 8.4 placing MDT at +9.3 degrees through the 18th. From the looks of the upcoming week's forecast the departure should have grown to between 12 and 13 degrees above by next weekend when we "cool down" to the low 60's for highs. Can someone please look up the top 5 or 10 warmest Marches for MDT? It seems like we may destroy the previous number one slot by the end of the month. I have no idea what year the warmest MDT March would have been. I don't think I can remember ever having such a prolonged and extreme departure from normal on the warm side during a cold month ever...and I'm 52! Just wait and see....we will probably turn around on April first and have a huge snowstorm during the first week of April. Who here is old enough to remember April 6-7, 1982? NYC NWS issued a blizzard warning for a snowstorm that dumped 9" of snow and set two record low temps for both days at 21 degrees. The high temperature on the 7th with full sun after the storm had departed only reached 32 degrees. So, stranger things have indeed happened before in the past. We'll see what later this month into next brings our way. Meanwhile, I will keep updating the MDT departure each day until this insanity ends. I'm old enough, but i don't remember that? and i wasn't keeping notes then either...however, i do have in my notes, April 7, 2003 we had 4" below is from Pennlive, Harrisburgs patriot News online: The highest average temperature for March is 49.6 degrees, set in 1921. So far, the average temperature this month is 47.8, which would rank as the third-highest of all time if the month ended Sunday The April 1982 snow was memorable. Harrisburg set the single day record for 4/6 with 6.3", I think the total was about 7-8 at Harrisburg. Since is was so close to Easter, I remember the neighbor kids built a snowbunny. I was a freshman in high school, our high school baseball team played a game the day before, and I remember no one believed it would snow. There were snow-outs for several major league games, and I remember actually reading in Sports Illustrated rumblings that it was proof that the season started too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 The April 1982 snow was memorable. Harrisburg set the single day record for 4/6 with 6.3", I think the total was about 7-8 at Harrisburg. Since is was so close to Easter, I remember the neighbor kids built a snowbunny. I was a freshman in high school, our high school baseball team played a game the day before, and I remember no one believed it would snow. There were snow-outs for several major league games, and I remember actually reading in Sports Illustrated rumblings that it was proof that the season started too early. Now see i remember a big stink about BB starting early, but i don't remember the snow. I'm going to have to go home and look back through my notes to see if something jars my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Now see i remember a big stink about BB starting early, but i don't remember the snow. I'm going to have to go home and look back through my notes to see if something jars my memory. Here's a thread about it, mainly about the NYC part of it but it shows a national map. It was a huge storm: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/16342-april-1982-blizzard/ The other thing I vaguely recall was people being angry the day before because they didn't believe the forecast, though given how incorrect our memories are that might not be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Not to wave the AVP flag again but as of yesterday we have an even more astounding MTD temp departure of +11.6°F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Not to wave the AVP flag again but as of yesterday we have an even more astounding MTD temp departure of +11.6°F. 11.7 here. Six consecutive +20 or greater departures. Nuts. It really is. I can't recall anything like this, weather-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Best site for PA climatology and weather archives: http://climate.met.psu.edu/www_prod/data/city_information/index.php?city=unv&page=dwa&type=city Just think, if average temps are mid 40s this time of year. What if we were seeing departures of -20 to -25 instead of the positive side...we'd be looking at temps consistently in the low-mid 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Best site for PA climatology and weather archives: http://climate.met.p...e=dwa&type=city Just think, if average temps are mid 40s this time of year. What if we were seeing departures of -20 to -25 instead of the positive side...we'd be looking at temps consistently in the low-mid 20s I've always wondered why it seems like it is so much easier to have these extremes on the plus side of normal and so much tougher/rarer on the negative side. <no one need chime in who's a gw proponent. I'm not a member of that camp.> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Best site for PA climatology and weather archives: http://climate.met.p...e=dwa&type=city Just think, if average temps are mid 40s this time of year. What if we were seeing departures of -20 to -25 instead of the positive side...we'd be looking at temps consistently in the low-mid 20s Thanks, J. Will check the link out! Also, thanks earlier to Saussy for the #1 March temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 anyone else having problems with the State college radar loading? We have a scrimmage at 4 and i'm trying to keep an eye out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 68.2/55...feels like May out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 anyone else having problems with the State college radar loading? We have a scrimmage at 4 and i'm trying to keep an eye out Down for maintenance / upgrades. IIRC it'll be down a week or so. It's really muggy out - had to turn on ceiling fans today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Down for maintenance / upgrades. IIRC it'll be down a week or so. It's really muggy out - had to turn on ceiling fans today. thank you sir..... Did you ever find a range? My wifes Nephew just joined Hunters its off of Nyes Road in Lower paxton twp, said the place is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Never have, I really don't wanna pay for a private club - we aren't gun people but just need a place for practice really. I wish I owned 40 acres where I could shoot at trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Best site for PA climatology and weather archives: http://climate.met.p...e=dwa&type=city Just think, if average temps are mid 40s this time of year. What if we were seeing departures of -20 to -25 instead of the positive side...we'd be looking at temps consistently in the low-mid 20s Thanks, J. Will check the link out! Also, thanks earlier to Saussy for the #1 March temp. For MDT climo you are better off using NCDC (http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html)... PA Climo site is missing data for a number of years for Harrisburg since reporting site has changed a number of times over the years ( In looking through the annual LCD reports the top 5 warmest average March temps for Harrisburg are: 49.6 - 1921 48.8 - 1946 47.5 - 2010, 2000 47.4 - 1903 46.8 - 1898 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 anyone else having problems with the State college radar loading? We have a scrimmage at 4 and i'm trying to keep an eye out Down for maintenance / upgrades. IIRC it'll be down a week or so. It's really muggy out - had to turn on ceiling fans today. State College radar started the dual-pol upgrade today so it will be down all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 getting a good thunder storm in wilkes-barre right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 I've always wondered why it seems like it is so much easier to have these extremes on the plus side of normal and so much tougher/rarer on the negative side. <no one need chime in who's a gw proponent. I'm not a member of that camp.> Care to explain why you don't believe in GW? I understand the turnoff because of the political aspect of what AGW has turned into, but from the scientific side of the climate, we have indeed warmed by a considerable amount. How anyone can deny the warming that has been backed by an ample amount of data and a scientific consensus is beyond me. Your first part of your question is one of the sole definitions of GW as 3 STD events on the warming side will become more likely than -3 STD events. As long as the polar source of cold air continues to erode along with the northern snowpack, the cold outbreaks will continue to lose their punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 19, 2012 Share Posted March 19, 2012 Care to explain why you don't believe in GW? I understand the turnoff because of the political aspect of what AGW has turned into, but from the scientific side of the climate, we have indeed warmed by a considerable amount. How anyone can deny the warming that has been backed by an ample amount of data and a scientific consensus is beyond me. Your first part of your question is one of the sole definitions of GW as 3 STD events on the warming side will become more likely than -3 STD events. As long as the polar source of cold air continues to erode along with the northern snowpack, the cold outbreaks will continue to lose their punch. LOL! I knew that comment would elicit a response from you. I don't want to create a stir. I am definitely not an expert on climate and climate change. I won't even argue with you that some warming may have or may be taking place. My own view is that anyone who tries to encapsulate these events within the context of a climate history of just a few centuries isn't looking at the bigger picture.....say the climate variations over many millenia. Not to be overly simplistic, but I know others have questioned the reasons we ever had an ice age, and what happened back then to warm us back up and take us out of that period? There wasn't industry pumping CO2 into the atmosphere back then, yet the warming occurred. How do we know that there will not be another period of cooling in the future long after we're all gone? I'm not saying any of this to pick on you, Potter. I can appreciate the science behind these observations. I just think that 50 or 100 or even 200 years is absolutely nothing more than a blip in time, and to focus in (not you or your views in particular) on what is going on during the past several decades and make conclusions that it can not ever reverse in the future is, in my opinion, farcicle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 LOL! I knew that comment would elicit a response from you. I don't want to create a stir. I am definitely not an expert on climate and climate change. I won't even argue with you that some warming may have or may be taking place. My own view is that anyone who tries to encapsulate these events within the context of a climate history of just a few centuries isn't looking at the bigger picture.....say the climate variations over many millenia. Not to be overly simplistic, but I know others have questioned the reasons we ever had an ice age, and what happened back then to warm us back up and take us out of that period? There wasn't industry pumping CO2 into the atmosphere back then, yet the warming occurred. How do we know that there will not be another period of cooling in the future long after we're all gone? I'm not saying any of this to pick on you, Potter. I can appreciate the science behind these observations. I just think that 50 or 100 or even 200 years is absolutely nothing more than a blip in time, and to focus in (not you or your views in particular) on what is going on during the past several decades and make conclusions that it can not ever reverse in the future is, in my opinion, farcicle. I'm not picking on you either, just wanted your insight on why your beliefs are the way they are. Thats the thing, the globe has been warmer in the past and much cooler, but that isn't why AGW is projected as a threat. I'm sure you have heard such a thing as rate of change. The warming we are currently experiencing is much faster than what has occured in the past millenia, that is the arguement of AGW, not necessarily because of the current global temperatures, but rather the change. Species have adapted and evolved in the past with many a climate regimes, but those climate regimes changed at a much much much slower rate of change giving species a much larger time frame for adaptation. Climatologist know what the past paleoclimate was like millions of years ago without the contributions of humankind. I'm not saying global temperatures in the future will never reach another ice age, but at the present rate of warming could hamper the effects of ever approaching one and could harm many species. Think about it this way, the Earth is Millions to Billions of years old right, most of the warming and cooling have taken place over stretches of tens to hundreds of thousands of years, but humankind has measured at least a 1C/ per century of warming, that is a huge rate of change compared to past measurements. Just think if humans continued at that current rate, by the year 3000 the globe would have warmed 10C, do you really want that for future generations? We know humans are responsible for the warming because of the increase in CO2 concentrations which are near 400ppm. Granite, again CO2 concentrations where much larger in the past, but it is the rate of change in CO2 that is the worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 I'm not picking on you either, just wanted your insight on why your beliefs are the way they are. Thats the thing, the globe has been warmer in the past and much cooler, but that isn't why AGW is projected as a threat. I'm sure you have heard such a thing as rate of change. The warming we are currently experiencing is much faster than what has occured in the past millenia, that is the arguement of AGW, not necessarily because of the current global temperatures, but rather the change. Species have adapted and evolved in the past with many a climate regimes, but those climate regimes changed at a much much much slower rate of change giving species a much larger time frame for adaptation. Climatologist know what the past paleoclimate was like millions of years ago without the contributions of humankind. I'm not saying global temperatures in the future will never reach another ice age, but at the present rate of warming could hamper the effects of ever approaching one and could harm many species. Think about it this way, the Earth is Millions to Billions of years old right, most of the warming and cooling have taken place over streches of tens of thousands of years, but humankind has measured at least a 1C/ per century of warming, that is a huge rate of change compared to past measurements. Just think if humans continued at that current rate, by the year 3000 the globe would have warmed 10C, do you really want that for future generations? We know humans are responsible for the warming because of the increase in CO2 concentrations which are near 400ppm. Granite, again CO2 concentrations where much larger in the past, but it is the rate of change in CO2 that is the worry. Thanks for your explanation. What was your major in college? Sounds like something in environmental sciences with the things you learned. Also, where did u go to college? ---Stephen PS>>>We have another thing in common, btw. I hate hot weather, especially hot humid weather. It is digusting outside right now...60.4 degrees with 89% humidity....YUCK!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Here is the daily MDT departure update for 3/19... Today's departure from normal was a positive 16 degrees. That produced an additional 0.8 degrees of positive departure, added to +8.4 degrees through yesterday gives us 9.2 degrees of positive departure and puts MDT's average temperature-to-date at 49.2 degrees. That's 0.4 degrees below the warmest March on record and currently in the #2 position. We are assured of surpassing #1 by Wednesday. The question will be, will we hold on through the end of the month???? Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Thanks for your explanation. What was your major in college? Sounds like something in environmental sciences with the things you learned. Also, where did u go to college? ---Stephen PS>>>We have another thing in common, btw. I hate hot weather, especially hot humid weather. It is digusting outside right now...60.4 degrees with 89% humidity....YUCK!!!!! No problem, and I don't mean to be a smarty pants, I'm just really concerned about this, and the potential hazards it could cause. I'm not a doomsday artist and you will hardly hear me talk paranoid, I definitely think the problem could be reversed rather quickly if everyone cooperated. Lol my education is a rather mishmash of knowledge. I started out in Meteorology down at Penn State for two years, then switched to Earth and Mineral Sciences for one year. Decided that there wasn't many job opportunities in either field, then eventually switched to two years at the University of Pittsburgh. I was concerned with the advances that climatology has made in the field and I wanted to help make the switch over to renewable resources. So I went to Pittsburgh and I have an Associates in Geology/Petroleum Technology, eventually going for my Energy degree. I want to be apart of the gradual switch from oil to natural gas, then eventually all renewable resources. Natural gas is the future because it is a reliable heating fuel, could be used for transportation and is a lot cleaner than coal and oil and emits alot less CO2 when burned. The thing is, most of the "green" movement wants to directly move to renewable sources, but that isn't realistic at all. I want to be apart of the bridging effect of the worlds energy needs. I will eventually want my Bachelors in Energy, and once I'm older I will go back to my passion in Meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted March 20, 2012 Share Posted March 20, 2012 Snakes are back to doin their snake-stuff already. Anybody remember an earlier date for snakes being back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Today was day 8 of 20°+ departures...averaging around 23-24° above normal. Should add 3 more +22-28 days this week. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Snakes are back to doin their snake-stuff already. Anybody remember an earlier date for snakes being back? Wow, that tops the weird thing I saw today. I saw a LIVING wooly bear caterpillar, almost all tan of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Ants were streaming past the front door this evening. The cherry trees are the prettiest I have seen since moving here. Just gorgeous. Bugs are going to be a significant issue this spring/summer. Significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 We were at +12.3°F MTD headed to today. Today's mean departure was +26°F. Geezus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 Ants were streaming past the front door this evening. The cherry trees are the prettiest I have seen since moving here. Just gorgeous. Bugs are going to be a significant issue this spring/summer. Significant. Lots of rabbits, too. Warm springs = high rabbit survival rate. Already live trapped two and move them far from my garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 21, 2012 Share Posted March 21, 2012 And btw, we had dense fog this am, and it was a festival of idiotic driving-in-fog decisions around here. One example: guy in a GREY car without lights on, at dawn, in dense fog. Seriously, wtf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.