OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 NOTE that the changes are clear very early in the run. Hence my first post when it was only out 48 hours. Both the first northern s/w and the lobe off the vortex are more amplified to the southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 lack of downstream blocking really foists this thing out before a purer phase can take place. The subsume takes place, but the native progressive nature to the flow does nothing to stop this from trundling seaward. Nevertheless, even a partial subsume shows what amazing power can be unleashed when pure southern stream and pure northern stream drink too much and catch the same cab - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 holy s**** talk about PD III / worthwhile reason to bail on the futility record correct me if i'm wrong... we have never seen this inside of Day 5 on GFS this winter Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 NOTE that the changes are clear very early in the run. Hence my first post when it was only out 48 hours. Both the first northern s/w and the lobe off the vortex are more amplified to the southwest You and I have been all over this subsume potential; personally I stopped short of making this call and have no regrets! The Euro run from 00z and then the 12z run were flags however. I always get peevish about things when I see pearled SPV fragments dangling precipitously through southern Canada while a southern stream is activating... That's ..eh, touchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 lack of downstream blocking really foists this thing out before a purer phase can take place. The subsume takes place, but the native progressive nature to the flow does nothing to stop this from trundling seaward. Nevertheless, even a partial subsume shows what amazing power can be unleashed when pure southern stream and pure northern stream drink too much and catch the same cab - Yeah and the upstream kicker doesn't help. Not quite in classic historic form, but the GFS certainly displays the result of combining these two forces that we've been describing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah, ... subsuming underway... A few of us have been interested in this potential... wxwatcher91? I never wrote this one off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah and the upstream kicker doesn't help. Not quite in classic historic form, but the GFS certainly displays the result of combining these two forces that we've been describing Yes... folks should also stop shy of calling that a monster. That's a powerful nor'easter; let's leave it at that guys and gals. Monsters well too much up in terms of vestment and you're setting your selves up - Personally I will go on record as saying this is the most promising entity I've seen all year. Well... October was a bit more certain to me -- I'm speaking in terms of DJF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I never wrote this one off. I don't doubt it, Ray. It could still blow up, and not here, too. Just watchers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I don't know if I should shield my eyes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I don't doubt it, Ray. It could still blow up, and not here, too. Just watchers... You and Sam were def. all over this....I feel the same as I did earlier.....prob won't happen, but the threat is for real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yes... folks should also stop shy of calling that a monster. That's a powerful nor'easter; let's leave it at that guys and gals. Monsters well too much up in terms of vestment and you're setting your selves up - Personally I will go on record as saying this is the most promising entity I've seen all year. Well... October was a bit more certain to me -- I'm speaking in terms of DJF I personally hope something of this magnitude happens. Everyone from NYC to Boston to Ottawa to Toronto would get pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 You and I have been all over this subsume potential; personally I stopped short of making this call and have no regrets! The Euro run from 00z and then the 12z run were flags however. I always get peevish about things when I see pearled SPV fragments dangling precipitously through southern Canada while a southern stream is activating... That's ..eh, touchy. The Euro has been performing better (I say now at least) with handling the southern stream, which for whatever reason the GFS had been overdamping IMO. Otherwise the Euro hasn't quite shared the same propensity toward an amplified and perturbed northern stream vortex as the rest of the guidance has shown. Consequently the Euro has suggested some southern stream beasts that are amplified enough to attack the M/A, but otherwise has had little northern stream involvement from the vortex (not including the first s/w which phases on the east side of the Rockies which is a crucial component to amplifying the wave and the prospects of subsuming the PV lobe). Putting the two together, we get the 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 That would be well worth seeing futility falter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 That would be well worth seeing futility falter. How long did you have to think that one over? "Futility record, or MECS ... man, that's tough" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Must be the GFS control run.. Im Not Joking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Yeah and the upstream kicker doesn't help. Not quite in classic historic form, but the GFS certainly displays the result of combining these two forces that we've been describing There is a possibility however fleeting that the upstream impulse is assimilated too strongly ...therefore, conserved in the flow too robustly. It's over the water so there that whole cliche, but it matters - yes it does. I was just looking at Feb 1978 and guess what... there wasn't much NAO blocking when that cut-off and lingered for an extra day such that it did. It can happen if "kickers" lack and the n stream and s stream to a more perfect union. This is not a 1978 analog. The purpose of the reference is to show that systems can stall without substantive blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 biggest snowstorm solution within D5 since October... on the GFS... where is CTBlizz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 972/1028 in a short distance with 2.75 QPF, yea that qualifies as a monster blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 the closing off at 500mb really prolongs the precipitation over SNE after the surface low has moved northeast, you can actually see a little blob of QPF linger hours 126-132 as the upper low swings through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 it's already 12, I guess I'm up to see the biggest ECM of our lifefimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 The Euro has been performing better (I say now at least) with handling the southern stream, which for whatever reason the GFS had been overdamping IMO. Otherwise the Euro hasn't quite shared the same propensity toward an amplified and perturbed northern stream vortex as the rest of the guidance has shown. Consequently the Euro has suggested some southern stream beasts that are amplified enough to attack the M/A, but otherwise has had little northern stream involvement from the vortex (not including the first s/w which phases on the east side of the Rockies which is a crucial component to amplifying the wave and the prospects of subsuming the PV lobe). Putting the two together, we get the 00z GFS That's more my point - yes. It's not whether the 12z Euro was subsuming so much as it is that its southern stream impulse appears continuous across its cycles. That left/leaves room open for entanglement as a correction. Tonight run - yeah, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 I'm here but not biting. Someone wake up Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 972/1028 in a short distance with 2.75 QPF, yea that qualifies as a monster blizzard. It depends whether those happen in tandem, actually. It appears to be a big QPF then wind response later as it exits. Of course...this is as is on this run - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Must be the GFS control run.. Im Not Joking! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 There is a possibility however fleeting that the upstream impulse is assimilated too strongly ...therefore, conserved in the flow too robustly. It's over the water so there that whole cliche, but it matters - yes it does. I was just looking at Feb 1978 and guess what... there wasn't much NAO blocking when that cut-off and lingered for an extra day such that it did. It can happen in "kickers" lack and the n stream and s stream to a more perfect union. This is not a 1978 analog. The purpose of the reference is to show that systems can stall without substantive blocking. What about the prospect of the kicker being assimilated too weak, and thus it's moving through the flow too fast? A deeper s/w approaching the west coast might break cyclonically earlier / further west, thus preserving and actually amplifying western NA ridging ...? Viable or not? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 It depends whether those happen in tandem, actually. It appears to be a big QPF then wind response later as it exits. Of course...this is as is on this run - Tippy Tulip Trouncer. Tulips on the organ are better than roses on the piano, happy V day big guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 15, 2012 Author Share Posted February 15, 2012 it's already 12, I guess I'm up to see the biggest ECM of our lifefimes. 00z Christmas Day 2010 ... never will there be a bigger Euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 Tippy Tulip Trouncer. Tulips on the organ are better than roses on the piano, happy V day big guy. F U ...ahhahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 00z Christmas Day 2010 ... never will there be a bigger Euro run Huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2012 Share Posted February 15, 2012 What about the prospect of the kicker being assimilated too weak, and thus it's moving through the flow too fast? A deeper s/w approaching the west coast might break cyclonically earlier / further west, thus preserving and actually amplifying western NA ridging ...? Viable or not? lol It's a give and take... Here's a weak kicker scenario: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/dwm/1978/19780206-19780212.djvu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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