Ian Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 That Matt's job lol I don't like the cases where we have to wait for rain to change to snow. a perfect topper to this would be all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Ensemble mean good for DCA, show about .7 in qpf., havent looked at individuals yet. 0.5" contour all the way to Philly...this is just the mean but it is much warmer and likes the 2-part idea....mixy/messy until Sunday morning when the mid levels crash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 2-part high QPF event > 1 part 0.15" of -SN at 35 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 0.5" contour all the way to Philly...this is just the mean but it is much warmer and likes the 2-part idea....mixy/messy until Sunday morning when the mid levels crash I am guessing by hr 51ish we should be switching over in the 2 part idea on the ensemble mean... 54hrs will be nice to see where the 850 line is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I've been pretty much silent about this event but today's runs are inlign with alot of speculation earlier this week. It's not like anyone ever expected a miracle or anything but yes, it does look like snow will be on the ground on Sunday and this could easily be the best event of the season (lol- like that is saying something). So far this year, most vorts passing to the S have trended juicier and further north with the precip in the 48 hour to ground zero timeframe. This looks to do the same thing. Probably has something to do with a complete absence of a -nao but that's just a guess. It's easy to envision whats about to happen (if it happens of course). Marginal above freezing temps at onset but it will be easy to snow. Suface may (or probably) never get below freezing for dc metro south. Probably will in the typical spots like mt. airy, westminster, mr vortmax, etc. Column above looks fine though (especially during the heavier precip). So, stating the obvious here but my guess is a low ratio slushy event with decent qpf. Even if we get .5 all snow, i can't imagine anything more than 2-3" tops in dc metro. It's not going to be good sledding snow because ground will be wet and muddy but in the end we'll all be pretty happy. Just a shame we can't get a 1028+ hp in upstate ny or something. This time of year is really easy to get surface temps below freezing with this kinda storm. Oh well, just that kind of year I guess but I'm not complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I am guessing by hr 51ish we should be switching over in the 2 part idea on the ensemble mean... 54hrs will be nice to see where the 850 line is yes...sounds about right, but it is a mean....switch over around hour 50 and then a nice burst of snow for 2-3 hours and then -SN for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 I've been pretty much silent about this event but today's runs are inlign with alot of speculation earlier this week. It's not like anyone ever expected a miracle or anything but yes, it does look like snow will be on the ground on Sunday and this could easily be the best event of the season (lol- like that is saying something). So far this year, most vorts passing to the S have trended juicier and further north with the precip in the 48 hour to ground zero timeframe. This looks to do the same thing. Probably has something to do with a complete absence of a -nao but that's just a guess. It's easy to envision whats about to happen (if it happens of course). Marginal above freezing temps at onset but it will be easy to snow. Suface may (or probably) never get below freezing for dc metro south. Probably will in the typical spots like mt. airy, westminster, mr vortmax, etc. Column above looks fine though (especially during the heavier precip). So, stating the obvious here but my guess is a low ratio slushy event with decent qpf. Even if we get .5 all snow, i can't imagine anything more than 2-3" tops in dc metro. It's not going to be good sledding snow because ground will be wet and muddy but in the end we'll all be pretty happy. Just a shame we can't get a 1028+ hp in upstate ny or something. This time of year is really easy to get surface temps below freezing with this kinda storm. Oh well, just that kind of year I guess but I'm not complaining. the surface is going to trend colder....we want QPF...temps are a problem we can deal with when there is no warm layer up high....This is a much better problem to have than the 850 0 line moving 250 miles north in a 6 hr window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 yes...sounds about right, but it is a mean....switch over around hour 50 and then a nice burst of snow for 2-3 hours and then -SN for a while a kitten dies everytime a weenie uses the ensemble mean to forecast p-type... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 a kitten dies everytime a weenie uses the ensemble mean to forecast p-type... which is why I added the language, "but it is a mean" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 which is why I added the language, "but it is a mean" sorry wasn't meant to be directed at you...i was being lazy...on that note, a majority of the individual members look good for Sunday...better phase...more precip with the 2nd event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 the surface is going to trend colder....we want QPF...temps are a problem we can deal with when there is no warm layer up high....This is a much better problem to have than the 850 0 line moving 250 miles north in a 6 hr window Oh yea, I totally agree with this post. No doubt in my mind the surface ends up colder than what is modeled. We've seen it many times in the past (including several times this year). And yes, that part of the equation is much better to work on than praying we get cold enough at 850. I wish we could fast forward to saturday evening and see what kind of dews and surface temps we're dealing with here and up north in pa and ny. That's the only reason why I'm a bit pessimistic about gettting below freezing imby. The light precip at the beginning will saturate the column pretty easilty and if we're @ 35 with a 31 dp before the snow then it's going to be frustrating. Figures we might be missing one simple feature to make this a pretty all snow event with the sound of plows on the street. Nowcasting is going to be fun on Saturday though. It will be time to forget the model's suface temps and go with what we know. I always enjoy the nowcasting threads for that reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 sorry wasn't meant to be directed at you...i was being lazy...on that note, a majority of the individual members look good for Sunday...better phase...more precip with the 2nd event the models are just catching on this morning.....I imagine the details are going to evolve, perhaps wildly, until late tomorrow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 now this does shock/encourage me http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep72072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Oh yea, I totally agree with this post. No doubt in my mind the surface ends up colder than what is modeled. We've seen it many times in the past (including several times this year). And yes, that part of the equation is much better to work on than praying we get cold enough at 850. I wish we could fast forward to saturday evening and see what kind of dews and surface temps we're dealing with here and up north in pa and ny. That's the only reason why I'm a bit pessimistic about gettting below freezing imby. The light precip at the beginning will saturate the column pretty easilty and if we're @ 35 with a 31 dp before the snow then it's going to be frustrating. Figures we'd be missing one simple feature to make this a pretty all snow event with the sound of plows on the street. Nowcasting is going to be fun on Saturday though. It will be time to forget the model's suface temps and go with what we know. I always enjoy the nowcasting threads for that reason. that's like well over half of our accumulating snow events.....DC is probably the worst place on earth to get a robust, juicy all snow event with the entire column safely below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Ensemble mean good for DCA, show about .7 in qpf., havent looked at individuals yet. 0.5" contour all the way to Philly...this is just the mean but it is much warmer and likes the 2-part idea....mixy/messy until Sunday morning when the mid levels crash now this does shock/encourage me http://raleighwx.ame...emblep72072.gif thanks for the update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 that's like well over half of our accumulating snow events.....DC is probably the worst place on earth to get a robust, juicy all snow event with the entire column safely below freezing Yep, 09-10 is such a stunning anomaly in these parts. That season blew my mind (and everbody elses of course). Couldn't line things up any better. Statistically, that year was like hitting the powerball. So awesome on so many levels. But now we deal with the norm and it is what it is. Still fun though. Just gotta keep everything in perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 thanks for the update! you know, making money is important too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Yep, 09-10 is such a stunning anomaly in these parts. That season blew my mind (and everbody elses of course). Couldn't line things up any better. Statistically, that year was like hitting the powerball. So awesome on so many levels. But now we deal with the norm and it is what it is. Still fun though. Just gotta keep everything in perspective. and I remember being a little pi$$ed at the 2/10 event turning to ip/zr right before midnight even Chuck and Marcus were stunned by it in their back yards I recall but Ma' Nature redeemed herself after about 4AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 http://www.washingto...LE5mQ_blog.html very nice write-up...good thing we have a board though...I prefer to look at potential winter events through a lens other than whether it will affect travel, shut schools, stick to main arteries or cancel Johnny's piano recital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 now this does shock/encourage me http://raleighwx.ame...emblep72072.gif You gotta wonder Mitch. Do we end up with a relatively high qpf event? Like a widespread .75+/-? We've been here many times before. Ok track upstairs and most everything is trending wetter inside of 48. I honestly don't think that qpf is going to start backing off. Sweet spot will move around but overall, I think the wetter solutions are more likely to be right. Just a guess but at least a semi-educated one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 the models are just catching on this morning.....I imagine the details are going to evolve, perhaps wildly, until late tomorrow.... very true, even though the ensemble generally show a better phase...the uncertainty of that phase is really high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Euro is out to 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 very true, even though the ensemble generally show a better phase...the uncertainty of that phase is really high... does that represent the uncertainty "of a phase" or "where it phases"? it seems at least a light snow event is in the cards, the question is now becoming can it become a moderate one with a more "perfect" phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2012 Author Share Posted February 3, 2012 would be awesome if the euro just came in with 1.65 qpf all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Euro is out to 30 before we even see the solution either way* , I don't trust the euro much in this setup...It is probably going to hold the southern branch energy back and phase it in too late.... *If it shows a wet/snowy solution, ignore my caveat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 would be awesome if the euro just came in with 1.65 qpf all snow or just .65 and half snow...desperation is a sad state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Snow/rain hits DC metro 5-7 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Euro will forever be Dr. No when we need it. It's always the hold out. It's like the Wes Junker of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2012 Share Posted February 3, 2012 Euro will forever be Dr. No when we need it. It's always the hold out. It's like the Wes Junker of models. yes...It's usually right anyway through 48...further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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