sauss06 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM agreeing with the GFS on a major ice event for Southern portions of PA. south of turnpike? Adams, York, Lancaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Jmister NICE! What we looking at for ratio's 12-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Kaboom that would be great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I see State College to as Jackpot in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 south of turnpike? Adams, York, Lancaster? I'm looking in Lancaster (Columbia) so I can't imagine York/Lancaster being much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 And then this. Freezing stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I see State College to as Jackpot in this one. Right now it's looking like the prefect storm, the way this winter has been going. Hitting at night, temps going to be in the lower 20's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 O.o ugh oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm looking in Lancaster (Columbia) so I can't imagine York/Lancaster being much different. Shouldn't be too different, Columbia is pretty much smack dab in the middle of the 2 cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 O.o ugh oh. with fresh snow pack I can def see those temps being colder than what it shows there... large amount of moisture advection with that system could make a real mess out ahead of the cold front late sunday/early monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Jmister NICE! What we looking at for ratio's 12-1 Thanks. Yeah I was talking to fellow mets around the building, including Mallow and Josh Boden, and 12:1 sounds reasonable for central PA. Closer to 10:1 south of the Turnpike in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 12:1 isn't much difference though right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 12:1 isn't much difference though right? QPF Amount X 1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Can anybody with Euro soundings confirm if the model shows signification ice along the Mason Dixon line? Little confused why warnings are not being posted for those counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Let's see how close I can get whe it's all done, others may try this too. IPT: 2.4" UNV: 3.6" MDT: 4.4" AOO:4.7" JST: 3.3" HGR: 2.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Can anybody with Euro soundings confirm if the model shows signification ice along the Mason Dixon line? Little confused why warnings are not being posted for those counties. It does for Sunday night. Too early for anything with the storm approaching tonight IMO, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Let's see how close I can get whe it's all done, others may try this too. IPT: 2.4" UNV: 3.6" MDT: 4.4" AOO:4.7" JST: 3.3" HGR: 2.1" I'm gonna say 4.8" UNV. Don't know enough to call any numbers for other areas, especially to the south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'll give it a go: IPT: 3.3" UNV: 6.2" MDT: 4.1" AOO: 5.4" JST: 2.8" HGR: 2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 No changes.. Final JST 2-3" Sig IP/ZR .15-.30" ice AOO: 4-5" ZR .05-.1" UNV: 4-6" IPT: 4-6" MDT: 3-5" .05-.1" ZR HGR 2-4" .1-.2" ZR Ship: 4-5" .05-.1" ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Normal is around 30" and with any luck this one put us at 10"-ish. February forecast issued yesterday by the CPC is not a snow lovers map. I'll vote for a top ten lowest seasonal total when the final tally is complete. http://www.cpc.ncep....dictions/30day/ Hmmmm - don't know about that. Anybody know what the 10 lowest were for Harrisburg? If you get to 10-ish after that storm, you might be out of the running right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 It is going to snow and it feels like the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm hearing early rumors the GFS is colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Colder and juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Colder and juicy. Wow. Good for you guys south of here but the continued movement of the precip shield south has me worrying a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Warning type snows this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Itunis, that is why I think we will fall in the 2 or 3 inch range. Not shabby, but bullseye will be south of us. This winter, we have to take that and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS was colder at surface but warmer aloft, if I see it correctly. NAM looks to bump the 0 line a tad north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Trend is our friend here on the border. Another bump south and we will be in warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Itunis, that is why I think we will fall in the 2 or 3 inch range. Not shabby, but bullseye will be south of us. This winter, we have to take that and run. I doubt we get less than 3...it's a matter of 4-5 vs. 5-7 or so really. I think CoastalWx said this in the NE forum-as you have the QPF decrease from the system going farther south the snow doesn't necessarily decrease directly related to the amount of QPF lost. Rather, higher ratios can somewhat offset the lesser amounts of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 If we only get 12 to 1, it won't make too much of a difference. 15 to 1 would help...but doubt we get it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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