Jmister Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm starting to eye the precip that comes late Sunday pretty closely. This would be rather unexpected since the upcoming snow is getting all the attention. Looks like a good chunk of the state could see Advisory level ice out of it before changing to rain early Monday morning. 12z NAM - most of this is ice, especially in true central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm starting to eye the precip that comes late Sunday pretty closely. This would be rather unexpected since the upcoming snow is getting all the attention. Looks like a good chunk of the state could see Advisory level ice out of it before changing to rain early Monday morning. 12z NAM - most of this is ice, especially in true central PA. Been watching that too. Been getting more cold and more qpf each run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm starting to eye the precip that comes late Sunday pretty closely. This would be rather unexpected since the upcoming snow is getting all the attention. Looks like a good chunk of the state could see Advisory level ice out of it before changing to rain early Monday morning. 12z NAM - most of this is ice, especially in true central PA. wow, that could be ugly for Monday commute. .25 on nam. GFS show it being to warm at mdt and .429" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I'm starting to eye the precip that comes late Sunday pretty closely. This would be rather unexpected since the upcoming snow is getting all the attention. Looks like a good chunk of the state could see Advisory level ice out of it before changing to rain early Monday morning. 12z NAM - most of this is ice, especially in true central PA. I was starting to wonder about Sunday too... with a good fresh snow pack and high pressure to the north/northeast temperatures could remain cold enough long enough for ice accumulations for at least central PA... 850mb temps will be too warm for snow but a cold snowy surface would quickly turn the rain to significant ice ahead of the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Bombing in South Central Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 anyone still in for our orginal snow prediction pool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 :snowing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 anyone still in for our orginal snow prediction pool? Nope. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS goes massively warm at the mid levels for the SE portion of the state. Definite FZRA sig with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS goes massively warm at the mid levels for the SE portion of the state. Definite FZRA sig with this run. Not before a moderate amount of snow first. then maybe .1-.2" ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Through 24hrs all snow at ship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks like all precip fall into a below freezing column as temps just edge above 32 in the uppers at the end of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS makes sense, brings in more moisture which warms the column. Could be a significant problem for the eastern part of PA. And especially NJ. But it might be overshooting temps here in SC PA, as it did in that last CAD event (it didn't reach us, but generally speaking). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 :snowing: that looks like about .50 for us. did the qbf go up a tad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS makes sense, brings in more moisture which warms the column. Could be a significant problem for the eastern part of PA. And especially NJ. But it might be overshooting temps here in SC PA, as it did in that last CAD event (it didn't reach us, but generally speaking). i agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 anyone still in for our orginal snow prediction pool? Didn't our Williamsport friend have the latest therefore the closest? Want to call him a winner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Close to a half inch of QPF with a FZRA sig for those in Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Didn't our Williamsport friend have the latest therefore the closest? Want to call him a weinie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 that looks like about .50 for us. did the qbf go up a tad? text output of GFS is close to .6" but very boarderline upper level temps... this could very well end up something where someone stays all snow and a couple miles away has mixing issues ... NAM closer to .5" with 850mb temps also hanging around 31-32F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wow. Only 18 outside...but it actually feels nice out with the sun. Ground temps won't be a worry with this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 text output of GFS is close to .6" but very boarderline upper level temps... this could very well end up something where someone stays all snow and a couple miles away has mixing issues ... NAM closer to .5" with 850mb temps also hanging around 31-32F Thank you ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Close to a half inch of QPF with a FZRA sig for those in Lancaster. Ouch! Is that about the same for York too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thank you ! I bet you stay all snow while I have cement mixing. j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Close to a half inch of QPF with a FZRA sig for those in Lancaster. That's mostly FZRA, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wow. Only 18 outside...but it actually feels nice out with the sun. Ground temps won't be a worry with this one... Well, over in some of the other forums you might find a few who would attempt to argue ground temps are a worry here. We got down to 2.7, currently 17.3. The temp fell from 9.6 at 6:30 to 2.7 at 7:41, which was interesting to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I bet you stay all snow while I have cement mixing. j/k well, it is my turn ya know. In October you had all that snow and i hardly had enough to cover the grass! And were what, a mile apart the way the crow travels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well, over in some of the other forums you might find a few who would attempt to argue ground temps are a worry here. We got down to 2.7, currently 17.3. The temp fell from 9.6 at 6:30 to 2.7 at 7:41, which was interesting to see. Ground temps can be a factor in accum, especially on roads/concrete, but some take it pretty far. I'm surprised at how cold you get. I don't think we got below 10 here in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 That still baffles me. (for sauss) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well, over in some of the other forums you might find a few who would attempt to argue ground temps are a worry here. We got down to 2.7, currently 17.3. The temp fell from 9.6 at 6:30 to 2.7 at 7:41, which was interesting to see. wanna of your biggest Peeves.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Well, over in some of the other forums you might find a few who would attempt to argue ground temps are a worry here. We got down to 2.7, currently 17.3. The temp fell from 9.6 at 6:30 to 2.7 at 7:41, which was interesting to see. They are man. They are just too cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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