SpartyOn Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 My weenie statement. I would rather be sitting on the low side of tonight's runs than on the high side with 48 hours to go. I can sleep good cause i aint got **** too lose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 My weenie statement. I would rather be sitting on the low side of tonight's runs than on the high side with 48 hours to go. I can sleep good cause i aint got **** too loose. :clap: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yo , Chicago, What about RFD? RFD: THU 18Z 12-JAN -3.4 -6.7 1000 74 98 0.06 531 531 FRI 00Z 13-JAN -5.6 -10.5 1001 74 100 0.16 527 526 FRI 06Z 13-JAN -7.4 -10.7 1003 78 100 0.15 527 525 FRI 12Z 13-JAN -8.2 -13.4 1007 81 99 0.14 529 524 FRI 18Z 13-JAN -6.6 -13.9 1011 70 97 0.06 534 525 It will also be added to the list from now on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 shes a beaut though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Thanks Man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Take this fwiw but since 12/26/09 is an infamous deep DGZ event, I went back and quickly checked some data from back then and the winds for this event don't look much worse. That one had an even deeper DGZ though. I think peak DGZ depth was thursday evening herelooking at the fcst soundings IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 My weenie statement. I would rather be sitting on the low side of tonight's runs than on the high side with 48 hours to go. I can sleep good cause i aint got **** too lose! You guys do atleast have the seasonal trend on your side i do believe which is for the models to end up settling on a track a bit further se when we get inside of 48 hrs. Good luck out that way. Hopefully for your sake we can get that trend to kick in and get that surface low to track just east of the state to Huron and not into MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Still thinking 2-3" for the QCA, but may have to hedge a bit higher if the 12z runs continue to look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I think peak DGZ depth was thursday evening here IIRC. Sorta hard to call for super high ratios until we see it happening but using 15:1 with model consensus qpf would put you guys near or into warning criteria. Only thing is that it's fairly drawn out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 0z 4km WRF going pretty crazy in spots with high amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 0z 4km WRF going pretty crazy in spots with high amounts 3+ for I-70 from Ill. to Ohio. I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Interesting 6z nam wetter at hour 24..sadly all rain for S/E Mi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 6z NAM already coming in wetter than the 0z run by thursday evening and snow still going strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 6z NAM already coming in wetter than the 0z run by thursday evening and snow still going strong. and no dry slot for S/E Mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 6z Nam Much better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 So close to getting in on the higher QPF here. Atleast the models all show a good 24hr period of light qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 6z Nam Much better! That secondary came out of nowhere tho..and it's even deeper then the low in Michigan... Although the 6z nam looks good.. I'm still not buying it.. it just does not look right..I'm not sure what up with that secondary development and it tanks down to the lo 80s...if that secondary stays further west, and deepens then the l/p in Michigan will not be as strong, so that secondary could be dominant, basically taking all the energy from the Mi low.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 nam total 78.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Only through 0z Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 LOT excellent discussion by Gino BIGGER STORY WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE THE SNOWFALL. AS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO MT/ND EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES DIGGING SOUTHEAST MODELS ALL AGREE ON CLOSING OFF A DEEP CIRCULATION. AS CIRCULATION CLOSES OFF...WINDS TO THE NORTH OF IT WILL BACK RESULTING IN TIGHTENING TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALONG INVERT TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS NORTH FROM THE UPPER LOW. THIS BAND WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION INTO A MORE CLASSIC DEFORMATION ZONE AS UPPER LOW PIVOTS NORTHEAST AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...HOWEVER IT WAS NOT AN EASY DECISION HAVING TO WEIGH A MULTITUDE OF FACTORS BOTH FOR AND AGAINST. SLOW EVOLUTION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN A LONG DURATION EVENT...FOR WHICH THE 8 INCH WARNING CRITERIA MAY BE DIFFICULT TO BE MET. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST TO OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING DEVELOPING BY THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. VERY POSSIBLE ALL OR PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH MAY END UP EVENTUALLY GOING TO AN ADVISORY VS A WARNING. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SNOWFALL TOTALS IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CERTAINLY SUGGEST THAT THE PRIME DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WILL GROW TO BECOME VERY DEEP LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER FORECAST OMEGA IS NEVER REALLY OVERLY STRONG. BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS THAT WE ARE LOOKING AT A LONG DURATION LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS GENERALLY ENDING UP IN THE UPPER END OF THE ADVISORY RANGE. HOWEVER...AS LOW TO MID LEVELS COOL/DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DEEPENS WOULD ANTICIPATE SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS TO REALLY RAMP UP THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD COINCIDE WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS RESULTING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS. STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO START PINNING DOWN SNOWFALL TOTALS...PARTICULARLY IN LIGHT OF THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING SNOW:LIQUID RATIO...HOWEVER A SOLID 4-8" LOOKS PLAUSIBLE FOR NE IL AND NW INDIANA...WITH TOTALS PROBABLY MORE IN THE 2-6" RANGE ELSEWHERE. NO DOUBT THESE NUMBERS WILL REQUIRE SOME REFINEMENT IN LATER FORECASTS AND WILL KEEP AMOUNTS MORE GENERALIZED IN THE WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Was nice to see the 0z EURO hint at a more robust secondary development, but both the NAM and the already lackluster GFS have backed off at 6z. I'll have to see 12z before I'm more confident in saying the 0z runs were aberrations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Wilmington is obviously bullish (pure sarcasm): "DO NOT SEE THE DOOM AND GLOOM WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE UNDER AN INCH." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Trends continues to improve, stronger, wetter, south, longer. Of particular note is the duration which is key to realizing heavy amounts without a real moisture connection. When you combine the dynamics of a rapidly developing low, deep DGZ, duration and increasing model consensus on .5+ QPF (omg at the 0z gfs mean)......my initial call was too low. Revised IMBY call for 8.5". 99% chance that magnificent Illini win is influencing my call...still smiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Trends continues to improve, stronger, wetter, south, longer. Of particular note is the duration which is key to realizing heavy amounts without a real moisture connection. When you combine the dynamics of a rapidly developing low, deep DGZ, duration and increasing model consensus on .5+ QPF (omg at the 0z gfs mean)......my initial call was too low. Revised IMBY call for 8.5". 99% chance that magnificent Illini win is influencing my call...still smiling. Illini sucks! (not really) I just want 7in so can go snowmobiling but I would take more snow than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Just a quick map I put together with my thoughts. High snow ratios and the deep dendritic growth zone should be quite efficient in snow production across Eastern Iowa, Wisconsin, Northern Illinois, Northern Indiana and Western Michigan. My 5-9" range could be a little underdone in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Gonna be riding the back edge hard back here in Southeast Minnesota. Any shift either direction will have a huge impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 That Hi res WRF posted earlier really has the snow shield west into Iowa and MN compared to other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 nam total 78.. Don't forget that a good chunk of that precip from SE Mich and points east is all rain from tonight. That run would only be ~0.15" of liquid equivalent available for snow at DTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Some credence to a rather obvious perspective for us snow weenies in Chi-metro: Using NWS LOT's preliminary monthly climate data tables, ORD has had only three 1"+ cumulative snow events since GHD blizzard. 5.8" fell 2/6-7/11 1.3" fell 2/26/11 1.2" fell 12/17/11 Think local drivers will be a little rusty? Car pooling into western burbs this morning, IDOT already had a couple plows out on 90. Probably just refreshing or checking for obstructions along their routes but good to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 99% chance that magnificent Illini win is influencing my call...still smiling. Paul FTW. Holy 3 pointers. Anyway, I am taking a stab and going 7 IMBY. I am stuck in Connecticut, and my forecast is Snow to Sleet to Freezing Rain to Really Cold Rain ALL DAY to Sleet to back-end snow. So post plenty of photos of this event so I can share in what I am missing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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