scoob40 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Isn't 5-10° below normal notable? Heck, I see daily posts about "torch" weather when it's 5-10° above normal so I would think that in a sea of above normal that a swing 20° the other way would be notable. I'm looking forward to the stretch...I wish it would last longer, but I always enjoy a good cold out break! 26 on Tuesday and 23 on Wednesday ? Notable perhaps but certainly nothing out of the ordinary for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I am dead serious when I say we may not see any more accumulating snow..I won't rule out a dusting here and there or something If I recall correctly, in 79/80 we had a horrible year but had one good storm in February or March that brought us up to the 16"+ that we had for the season. We've had plenty of storms through April, so you never know what might pop up. 26 on Tuesday and 23 on Wednesday ? Notable perhaps but certainly nothing out of the ordinary for January. Isn't below or above normal by definition out of the ordinary? If ordinary is normal that anything outside of that would be out of the the ordinary, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2012 Author Share Posted January 1, 2012 Posted this in the wrong thread...on many different levels... didn't see this one... I think Mike, Mitch, and Pete will be pleasantly surprised out of this. Classic long-streamer bands off the Lakes will push into the Greens/Berks/Taconics and I bet you all see a few fluffy inches. One of those set-ups where the band or squall moves in, drops 3" in 2 hours, then skies go clear again. BTV WRF has a bullseye just north of you in the Bennington/Windham County upslope area, but if the lake band heads down the Mohawk Valley of NY then upslopes east of Albany, all three of you have a shot of several inches of fluff. Its not going to take much QPF with this low/mid level cold air right smack in the good dendrite growth zone for upslope, so you Berkshires guys may be nicely surprised. Forecast for here... WRF has 1-1.5" QPF over 48 hours. Fantastic post AMOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 If I recall correctly, in 79/80 we had a horrible year but had one good storm in February or March that brought us up to the 16"+ that we had for the season. We've had plenty of storms through April, so you never know what might pop up. Isn't below or above normal by definition out of the ordinary? If ordinary is normal that anything outside of that would be out of the the ordinary, no? If you consider high's in the mid 20's in January out of the ordinary carry on. Compared to the temps we've had lately it is notable but nothing to write home about by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Posted this in the wrong thread...on many different levels... didn't see this one... I think Mike, Mitch, and Pete will be pleasantly surprised out of this. Classic long-streamer bands off the Lakes will push into the Greens/Berks/Taconics and I bet you all see a few fluffy inches. One of those set-ups where the band or squall moves in, drops 3" in 2 hours, then skies go clear again. BTV WRF has a bullseye just north of you in the Bennington/Windham County upslope area, but if the lake band heads down the Mohawk Valley of NY then upslopes east of Albany, all three of you have a shot of several inches of fluff. Its not going to take much QPF with this low/mid level cold air right smack in the good dendrite growth zone for upslope, so you Berkshires guys may be nicely surprised. Forecast for here... WRF has 1-1.5" QPF over 48 hours. Interesting...it looks like the BTV WRF is trying to bring a Lake Erie band all the way east into S VT and SW NH! Pretty rare to see that happen, especially east of the Green Mountain spine. WNW flow is best for the Berkshires as this will sometimes bring a Lake Ontario streamer down the Mohawk and into the upslope region here. We had this occur last December and it was extremely persistent, producing 9-10" of fluff here while a couple towns away had a dusting. This is the most I've every seen from such an event; typically they are much more transient. I think our best chance at seeing some good upslope snow shower activity is Monday evening as the arctic boundary comes through. The arctic air coming over the unusually warm lakes should make for some robust streamers. I have moderate to high confidence that someone in S VT and the Berkshires/Taconics sees a few inches out of this. We may actually see some upslope tonight with a SW flow because there will be ample low-level moisture around after the first front goes through. It's rather rare for us to upslope with SW winds, but we may very well do it tonight. Unfortunately, the LLs are torched, so much of it may actually fall as rain, at least early on. The higher spots near 2K may cash in a little though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 If you consider high's in the mid 20's in January out of the ordinary carry on. Compared to the temps we've had lately it is notable but nothing to write home about by any means. Well actually daily high/low will not exactly represent Tuesday afternoon... as we'll reach our high in the morning. Many of us will be in the teens in the afternoon. So, yeah, it's cold. Any time you have 850s near or below -20C that's something to take note of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Interesting...it looks like the BTV WRF is trying to bring a Lake Erie band all the way east into S VT and SW NH! Pretty rare to see that happen, especially east of the Green Mountain spine. WNW flow is best for the Berkshires as this will sometimes bring a Lake Ontario streamer down the Mohawk and into the upslope region here. We had this occur last December and it was extremely persistent, producing 9-10" of fluff here while a couple towns away had a dusting. This is the most I've every seen from such an event; typically they are much more transient. I think our best chance at seeing some good upslope snow shower activity is Monday evening as the arctic boundary comes through. The arctic air coming over the unusually warm lakes should make for some robust streamers. I have moderate to high confidence that someone in S VT and the Berkshires/Taconics sees a few inches out of this. We may actually see some upslope tonight with a SW flow because there will be ample low-level moisture around after the first front goes through. It's rather rare for us to upslope with SW winds, but we may very well do it tonight. Unfortunately, the LLs are torched, so much of it may actually fall as rain, at least early on. The higher spots near 2K may cash in a little though. Yeah I think this will be a relatively impressive upslope event from the Northern Berks straight on up through Jay Peak. Aided by remnant lake effect streamers I think we'll see some good stuff. Someone in VT should get a foot. Would be nice for some of the S VT places to get something decent but it may be tough for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Pretty sad state of affairs for winter when you have to hang your hat on a FROPA to get some snow, At least its going to be cold up here for a few days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Here is a question for the experts; Shouldn't we expect a period of dry weather after the wet year we just experienced?? Ryan, the previous wettest year on record in Ct (prior to 2011), what did that winter and following Spring look like precip wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2012 Author Share Posted January 1, 2012 Yeah I think this will be a relatively impressive upslope event from the Northern Berks straight on up through Jay Peak. Aided by remnant lake effect streamers I think we'll see some good stuff. Someone in VT should get a foot. Would be nice for some of the S VT places to get something decent but it may be tough for them. Especially since someone will be at Stratton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 LEKing had pointed out in an Upstate thread yesterday that the classic ESE Mohawk Valley band that gets me and then hits the Taconics and Berkshires ultimately --- also traverses Oneida Lake and gets some extra umph. Also in the best case scenarios, that band may have a multi-lake connection, beginning at Superior, traversing Georgian Bay and then Ontario and then Oneida! I haven't seen the models doing much of that this week, but hope for the best! Interesting...it looks like the BTV WRF is trying to bring a Lake Erie band all the way east into S VT and SW NH! Pretty rare to see that happen, especially east of the Green Mountain spine. WNW flow is best for the Berkshires as this will sometimes bring a Lake Ontario streamer down the Mohawk and into the upslope region here. We had this occur last December and it was extremely persistent, producing 9-10" of fluff here while a couple towns away had a dusting. This is the most I've every seen from such an event; typically they are much more transient. I think our best chance at seeing some good upslope snow shower activity is Monday evening as the arctic boundary comes through. The arctic air coming over the unusually warm lakes should make for some robust streamers. I have moderate to high confidence that someone in S VT and the Berkshires/Taconics sees a few inches out of this. We may actually see some upslope tonight with a SW flow because there will be ample low-level moisture around after the first front goes through. It's rather rare for us to upslope with SW winds, but we may very well do it tonight. Unfortunately, the LLs are torched, so much of it may actually fall as rain, at least early on. The higher spots near 2K may cash in a little though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Especially since someone will be at Stratton. Lol no weenie goggles for me... Will be gone by 4pm Monday. Think any snow they get is after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Here is a question for the experts; Shouldn't we expect a period of dry weather after the wet year we just experienced?? Ryan, the previous wettest year on record in Ct (prior to 2011), what did that winter and following Spring look like precip wise? I'm not an expert but looking back at 2009 on the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service maps which followed what was previously our wettest year on record, we did have a string of generally below normal precipitation from January through May, with March being exceptionally below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Lol no weenie goggles for me... Will be gone by 4pm Monday. Think any snow they get is after. You may very well get some snow tonight... up there, especially above 2K feet. I like wxmanmitch's idea of the rare SW flow upslope after the Fropa... plenty of low level moisture and lingering fog, etc that'll get wrung out. Only issue is that snow growth temps will be pretty darn poor until that H85 -10C isotherm moves through. That's usually when we go to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 You may very well get some snow tonight... up there, especially above 2K feet. I like wxmanmitch's idea of the rare SW flow upslope after the Fropa... plenty of low level moisture and lingering fog, etc that'll get wrung out. Only issue is that snow growth temps will be pretty darn poor until that H85 -10C isotherm moves through. That's usually when we go to town. How's your BTV WRF look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 How's your BTV WRF look? For what, where and when? Ryan at Stratton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 For what, where and when? Ryan at Stratton? For everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 For everyone? Not much changed on the 12z run from the 00z run. Still looks like accumulating snow showers are possible up and down the Greens, Taconics, and Berkshires. Still showing a band into northern Berks/Southern VT tomorrow night that could blitz someone in that area if it happens. Then other bands up this way towards Jay Peak. FWIW BTV does not seem all that interested, and this could all just fall flat on its face with only 1-3" or so. My zone has 2-4" total accumulation in it (below advisory level) and that's the thing with these events is you really never know whats going to happen. Honestly anywhere from 1-10" could work as a forecast right now. I just like seeing how these meso-scale events pan out. Another area that doesn't get much publicity but could do really well is the northern slope of the Presidentials in NH. Isn't there a poster "Boston-FranconiaWx" or something like that who lives up in that area or has a house there? Bretton Woods and that whole north slope of the Whites could do very well. It still has the Mt Tolland measurable snow late Monday night... 40:1 arctic cold ratios: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 At one point tomorrow a Georgian Bay band cuts across St. Lawrence and Clinton Counties aiming for northern VT and then the Ontario band kind of merges in aiming for there.... They are carrying great distances as per the model. It has a Lake Erie band over me with 25 dbz's...which makes it to the Berks if you believe that. Later tomorrow night/early Tuesday the Ontario bands sweep down through here, but their main focus is the Dacks into VT (for many hours). Scraps for here, but sometimes if the band holds together you get a 30 to 60 minute thrill of +SN as it drops south to its eventual demise. ... Not much changed on the 12z run from the 00z run. Still looks like accumulating snow showers are possible up and down the Greens, Taconics, and Berkshires. Still showing a band into northern Berks/Southern VT tomorrow night that could blitz someone in that area if it happens. Then other bands up this way towards Jay Peak. FWIW BTV does not seem all that interested, and this could all just fall flat on its face with only 1-3" or so. My zone has 2-4" total accumulation in it (below advisory level) and that's the thing with these events is you really never know whats going to happen. Honestly anywhere from 1-10" could work as a forecast right now. I just like seeing how these meso-scale events pan out. Another area that doesn't get much publicity but could do really well is the northern slope of the Presidentials in NH. Isn't there a poster "Boston-FranconiaWx" or something like that who lives up in that area or has a house there? Bretton Woods and that whole north slope of the Whites could do very well. It still has the Mt Tolland measurable snow late Monday night... 40:1 arctic cold ratios: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Not much changed on the 12z run from the 00z run. Still looks like accumulating snow showers are possible up and down the Greens, Taconics, and Berkshires. Still showing a band into northern Berks/Southern VT tomorrow night that could blitz someone in that area if it happens. Then other bands up this way towards Jay Peak. FWIW BTV does not seem all that interested, and this could all just fall flat on its face with only 1-3" or so. My zone has 2-4" total accumulation in it (below advisory level) and that's the thing with these events is you really never know whats going to happen. Honestly anywhere from 1-10" could work as a forecast right now. I just like seeing how these meso-scale events pan out. Another area that doesn't get much publicity but could do really well is the northern slope of the Presidentials in NH. Isn't there a poster "Boston-FranconiaWx" or something like that who lives up in that area or has a house there? Bretton Woods and that whole north slope of the Whites could do very well. It still has the Mt Tolland measurable snow late Monday night... 40:1 arctic cold ratios: LOL...It's funny how it has that snow right over MT Tolland. Kind of odd esp since ORH has none Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 LOL...It's funny how it has that snow right over MT Tolland. Kind of odd esp since ORH has none It did that at 00z... in all seriousness if that location "upslopes" it is on a WSW flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 1, 2012 Author Share Posted January 1, 2012 Thunder tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 should sneak some OES into the lower cape tues pm / wed am. i'll take any flakes i can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 You can see the boundary of the arctic air in the arrowhead of MN moving into MI on this map. Note the temps in the low to mid teens in places like Grand Marais yet it's still in the upper 20 and low 30s in the SW part of the map. The numbers in red are wind gusts. You can use this link to get to the map and then use your mouse to scroll it eastward to follow the progression. The map will auto update the data values. http://www.wrh.noaa....42285&density=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Bust so far. Half inch above 3,000ft last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 Bust so far. Half inch above 3,000ft last night. Patience Grasshopper patience. LOL at BUF AFD Tidbit A RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ABOVEFREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE TUG HILL WHICH WILL BY BURIED IN SNOW BYTHEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Just got back for 2k in Gods country........great trip but activities limited in the Berkshires. No skating, no snow on the ground whatsoever, temps were extremely mild, 30 this morning with very light snow flurries. Spoke to many locals, they are hurting up there big time, what really caught my eye was the fact I did not even see a single snow pile, just amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Another area that doesn't get much publicity but could do really well is the northern slope of the Presidentials in NH. Isn't there a poster "Boston-FranconiaWx" or something like that who lives up in that area or has a house there? Bretton Woods and that whole north slope of the Whites could do very well. Yes, I'm here. Starting to cloud up and cool off now after a sunny start. I don't think we'll see much besides deep cold (finally) and some wind gusts...but guess I'm open to being surprised, it's been awhile since that has happened.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 Couple of folks might be surprised before all is said and done. Might be one of those SW CT LES surprises they are so famous for, also MPM, PETE, and the VT boys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 And Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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