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Seasonal trend would imply or hedge that way.

it's probably splitting hairs but I agree with BI's post from a couple weeks noting that the trend this year is not to have deep, phased systems. There's been a real lack of strong systems of any shape or form across the lower 48 this season. We've had some lows trend warmer in the last 48 hours...but I thought that was more due to SE ridge being under-modeled as opposed to systems verifying stronger.

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it's probably splitting hairs but I agree with BI's post from a couple weeks noting that the trend this year is not to have deep, phased systems. There's been a real lack of strong systems of any shape or form across the lower 48 this season. We've had some lows trend warmer in the last 48 hours...but I thought that was more due to SE ridge being under-modeled as opposed to systems verifying stronger.

violently agree

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This is looking pretty legit in my opinion folks despite still being 9-15 days out...winter about to make a big come back for the U.S in late January. ... East coast may not be ground zero for snow and cold in this setup, but this is refreshing to see.

post-402-0-83217000-1325614522.gif

post-402-0-62883300-1325614528.gif

Yes but....vortex over Greenland, raging Alaska vortex. If those aren't shifting then this is another temporary cold shot, no? Just like the one we are having right now?

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how Tip-like of you.

I've only known you as sneaky up to this point.

I'm looking forward to your praising meridional expression.

That only happens when he's watching weather-porn...

RE the Euro, that is a blue snow thump for much of the interior ...possibly even to I-95. The mid levels are colder than previous systems, such that produces a tighter gradient in the 850mb thermal layout. When the DPVA rides over that - if it did so as the Euro solution has it - than rapid cyclogenesis is an easy assumption due to very upright isentropic lift tapping into evac aloft. The run looks fine within it self in handling those events... "Weather" it verifies or not - heh, we'll see. The Euro has blow a 5 day outlook this year already... Anyway, feedback from rapid cylogen processes would drill the freezing level to the surface with ease in that kind of solution.

For those of you thinking this is rain in this Euro solution, you are either forcing that interpretation to be a dh, or you don't know how to interpret synoptic charts.

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That only happens when he's watching weather-porn...

RE the Euro, that is a blue snow thump for much of the interior ...possibly even to I-95. The mid levels are colder than previous systems, such that produces a tighter gradient in the 850mb thermal layout. When the DPVA rides over that - if it did so as the Euro solution has it - than rapid cyclogenesis is an easy assumption due to very upright isentropic lift tapping into evac aloft. The run looks fine within it self in handling those events... "Weather" it verifies or not - heh, we'll see. The Euro has blow a 5 day outlook this year already... Anyway, feedback from rapid cylogen processes would drill the freezing level to the surface with ease in that kind of solution.

For those of you thinking this is rain in this Euro solution, you are either forcing that interpretation to be a dh, or you don't know how to interpret synoptic charts.

That was a tight thermal packing reminiscent of last year.

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yep. just like so many other times thus far...it's either going to have to be a perfect needle thread or be weak and suppressed seaward...otherwise rain i'm afraid.

so far out though...still time for the overall look to shift i guess.

Is what it is, it's nice that it's about seasonal out there today. It's just astounding to fly over the entire country and see no snow anywhere. Roads clear and no sand piles.

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