mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Yeah it's interesting. I made a comment yesterday about how the GEFS and euro have changed places. The GEFS just rots the thing, while the euro tickles phases 8. how Tip-like of you. I've only known you as sneaky up to this point. I'm looking forward to your praising meridional expression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Or just form as a wave along the front and not really be anything. there's a decent enough thermal gradient and the mean flow is SW... similar to the past events that came west/warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Seasonal trend would imply or hedge that way. it's probably splitting hairs but I agree with BI's post from a couple weeks noting that the trend this year is not to have deep, phased systems. There's been a real lack of strong systems of any shape or form across the lower 48 this season. We've had some lows trend warmer in the last 48 hours...but I thought that was more due to SE ridge being under-modeled as opposed to systems verifying stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 there's a decent enough thermal gradient and the mean flow is SW... similar to the past events that came west/warm It's a little different that it's more nrn stream, but yeah I suppose it could go north. Who really knows...it may not be much of anything regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 it's probably splitting hairs but I agree with BI's post from a couple weeks noting that the trend this year is not to have deep, phased systems. There's been a real lack of strong systems of any shape or form across the lower 48 this season. We've had some lows trend warmer in the last 48 hours...but I thought that was more due to SE ridge being under-modeled as opposed to systems verifying stronger. violently agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 This is looking pretty legit in my opinion folks despite still being 9-15 days out...winter about to make a big come back for the U.S in late January. ... East coast may not be ground zero for snow and cold in this setup, but this is refreshing to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 also, there's been many lows where the cold air has been late to arrive on the "cold" side of lows...which actually a symptom of under-phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 there's a decent enough thermal gradient and the mean flow is SW... similar to the past events that came west/warm how far west n warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 12z Euro @Hr 132, Low right over the cape 1000mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Congrats NNE on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Euro looks iffy for SNE on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Euro looks iffy for SNE on Sunday. iffy? lol. that's a nice way to put it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Congrats NNE on the euro. the first step toward 1-2" of rain for almost everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 This is looking pretty legit in my opinion folks despite still being 9-15 days out...winter about to make a big come back for the U.S in late January. ... East coast may not be ground zero for snow and cold in this setup, but this is refreshing to see. Yes but....vortex over Greenland, raging Alaska vortex. If those aren't shifting then this is another temporary cold shot, no? Just like the one we are having right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 12z Euro @Hr 132, Low right over the cape 1000mb Let the north trend not begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Congrats NNE on the euro. Thats a bad sign this far out, It will end up in buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 iffy? lol. that's a nice way to put it. I want to let these weenies down easy. Too much of a bad thing is an awful thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 my money is on that event trending more amplified and warmer It's been doing that all year - why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Congrats NNE on the euro. Plenty of time for this to drive up into Quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I want to let these weenies down easy. Too much of a bad thing is an awful thing. LOL, well that's their fault for getting worked up. I hope nobody did, being 5-6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Plenty of time for this to drive up into Quebec If that northern stream s/w comes in a bit faster, we could have this thing over BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Too bad there was no blocking, because that was a tight nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Since it won't happen, might as well bask in the beauty of the model output while it's there. Verbatim is significant snow storm for W MA into VT and NH. Nice swath of 6-12", with lollies to 16" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Too bad there was no blocking, because that was a tight nuke. yep. just like so many other times thus far...it's either going to have to be a perfect needle thread or be weak and suppressed seaward...otherwise rain i'm afraid. so far out though...still time for the overall look to shift i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 how Tip-like of you. I've only known you as sneaky up to this point. I'm looking forward to your praising meridional expression. That only happens when he's watching weather-porn... RE the Euro, that is a blue snow thump for much of the interior ...possibly even to I-95. The mid levels are colder than previous systems, such that produces a tighter gradient in the 850mb thermal layout. When the DPVA rides over that - if it did so as the Euro solution has it - than rapid cyclogenesis is an easy assumption due to very upright isentropic lift tapping into evac aloft. The run looks fine within it self in handling those events... "Weather" it verifies or not - heh, we'll see. The Euro has blow a 5 day outlook this year already... Anyway, feedback from rapid cylogen processes would drill the freezing level to the surface with ease in that kind of solution. For those of you thinking this is rain in this Euro solution, you are either forcing that interpretation to be a dh, or you don't know how to interpret synoptic charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 That only happens when he's watching weather-porn... RE the Euro, that is a blue snow thump for much of the interior ...possibly even to I-95. The mid levels are colder than previous systems, such that produces a tighter gradient in the 850mb thermal layout. When the DPVA rides over that - if it did so as the Euro solution has it - than rapid cyclogenesis is an easy assumption due to very upright isentropic lift tapping into evac aloft. The run looks fine within it self in handling those events... "Weather" it verifies or not - heh, we'll see. The Euro has blow a 5 day outlook this year already... Anyway, feedback from rapid cylogen processes would drill the freezing level to the surface with ease in that kind of solution. For those of you thinking this is rain in this Euro solution, you are either forcing that interpretation to be a dh, or you don't know how to interpret synoptic charts. That was a tight thermal packing reminiscent of last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 So when is DT going to make snowfall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I look forward to my dusting with the inevitable nw trend occurs with a lack of a cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 yep. just like so many other times thus far...it's either going to have to be a perfect needle thread or be weak and suppressed seaward...otherwise rain i'm afraid. so far out though...still time for the overall look to shift i guess. Is what it is, it's nice that it's about seasonal out there today. It's just astounding to fly over the entire country and see no snow anywhere. Roads clear and no sand piles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Ryan about to post something about all rain for SNE..but looks great for NNE ski resorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.