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Would ridging in the AO area tend to want to dislodge that vortex a bit, perhaps towards Hudson's Bay?

It can do two things, split that massive elongated vortex and also move it towards Hudson Bay or even Quebec. I like seeing higher heights anomalies from the Aleutians and towards the North Pole. That's sort of step 1. Step 2 would be to weaken the vortex in the Davis Straits, but that will be harder to do. That will probably come from more top down related processes (like a possible stratospheric warming) or something like teleconnections where ridging in AK leads to trough in Canada and then ridging into Davis straits area. Sometimes it's impossible to know when that happens. It could just disappear in guidance in a time period of several days, or take weeks.

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A split in the PV and displacement is key, signs of such need to be more consistent I agree. Euro ENS are very encouraging in the 11-15 day range regarding that.

Not for nothing but we've seen this stuff before a month ago with much fanfare.

I hope this is the real deal but I remain very skeptical until it's inside 6 or 7 days.

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By the way Sam, I meant major as in very warm temp anomalies, not by Holton's definition. Just saw your post from last evening.

Oh I wasn't responding to anyone. I was just throwing it out as an fyi. The only post I saw with "major SSW" was Kev's lol

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GEFS bascially have a wave developing on the front pretty much over our heads, and then just to our east as it moves away. So a semblance of it, just a little too late. It might be enough to throw back a little moisture over ern areas. Nothing terribly exciting.

Well let's lock that in, I have had enough rain. :popcorn:

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GEFS bascially have a wave developing on the front pretty much over our heads, and then just to our east as it moves away. So a semblance of it, just a little too late. It might be enough to throw back a little moisture over ern areas. Nothing terribly exciting.

hmm...well the euro and the euro ensembles looks better. Cold air still looks very limited so another "thread the needle" type event.

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The antecedent air mass looks terrible like our other several teasers this year. I'd like to see some semblance of a decent Canadian HP. 1020 isn't getting it done apparently.

At least we have a trough sliding through Labrador with some confluence over southern Quebec. If only a -NAO was in place, that trough wouldn't break northward, and we'd have a solid high sitting to our north

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main forum HM says JMA and latest Euro showing a brief dip into Phase 8.

Baby steps....

I know phase 8 is God and phase 4 sucks, but can someone quickly describe what each entails? I know its MJO, but what is each phase and how many phases are there? Is there a chart?

Thank you and I hope you all enjoy below normal temps, tracking snow events, and NFL playoff football..

Its a new year new month and it feels like we have turned a corner from that musty stench of a 2m atmosphere that has been kicking us in the nuts, causing friends to argue, and arguably winning Kevin WOTY..

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