snowNH Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 lol, I know exactly where you're coming from there. Get this down to 2-3 days out and I'll feel a little better. In this year?? How bout getting this down to 12-24 hours, then I'll feel good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Would ridging in the AO area tend to want to dislodge that vortex a bit, perhaps towards Hudson's Bay? It can do two things, split that massive elongated vortex and also move it towards Hudson Bay or even Quebec. I like seeing higher heights anomalies from the Aleutians and towards the North Pole. That's sort of step 1. Step 2 would be to weaken the vortex in the Davis Straits, but that will be harder to do. That will probably come from more top down related processes (like a possible stratospheric warming) or something like teleconnections where ridging in AK leads to trough in Canada and then ridging into Davis straits area. Sometimes it's impossible to know when that happens. It could just disappear in guidance in a time period of several days, or take weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 A split in the PV and displacement is key, signs of such need to be more consistent I agree. Euro ENS are very encouraging in the 11-15 day range regarding that. Not for nothing but we've seen this stuff before a month ago with much fanfare. I hope this is the real deal but I remain very skeptical until it's inside 6 or 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 That's the same one the EUro and GGEM have right? Yeah it is..a little faster though. We're talking day 5-6 so I'm not going to get excited yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 That's the same one the EUro and GGEM have right? I think they are keying in on a different s/w. Edit Scott answered you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 By the way Sam, I meant major as in very warm temp anomalies, not by Holton's definition. Just saw your post from last evening. Oh I wasn't responding to anyone. I was just throwing it out as an fyi. The only post I saw with "major SSW" was Kev's lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Looks like the GFS is developing a wave along the front at day 5. Yes, And right where we want the GFS this far out SE so when the NW trend comes most will still be on the right side for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I think they are keying in on a different s/w. Edit Scott answered you. Yeah the euro has a srn extension to that s/w over Lake Erie at hr 138 on the op run, but I think it's the same overall system. Here comes the warm up we talked about too, for next week..possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 GFS coming around to the ideas of the Euro. This is within a SW flow regime, so it's a given (IMO) that it trends north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 GFS coming around to the ideas of the Euro. This is within a SW flow regime, so it's a given (IMO) that it trends north 100% accurate and agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 GEFS bascially have a wave developing on the front pretty much over our heads, and then just to our east as it moves away. So a semblance of it, just a little too late. It might be enough to throw back a little moisture over ern areas. Nothing terribly exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 GEFS bascially have a wave developing on the front pretty much over our heads, and then just to our east as it moves away. So a semblance of it, just a little too late. It might be enough to throw back a little moisture over ern areas. Nothing terribly exciting. Well let's lock that in, I have had enough rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 GEFS bascially have a wave developing on the front pretty much over our heads, and then just to our east as it moves away. So a semblance of it, just a little too late. It might be enough to throw back a little moisture over ern areas. Nothing terribly exciting. hmm...well the euro and the euro ensembles looks better. Cold air still looks very limited so another "thread the needle" type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Well let's lock that in, I have had enough rain. No way. I wouldn't lock anything in yet, but at least it's a nrn stream system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 If we do warm up next week, it may be one of the last middle fingers sent our way by the AK vortex for a while.....hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 No way. I wouldn't lock anything in yet, but at least it's a nrn stream system. The antecedent air mass looks terrible like our other several teasers this year. I'd like to see some semblance of a decent Canadian HP. 1020 isn't getting it done apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The antecedent air mass looks terrible like our other several teasers this year. I'd like to see some semblance of a decent Canadian HP. 1020 isn't getting it done apparently. At least we have a trough sliding through Labrador with some confluence over southern Quebec. If only a -NAO was in place, that trough wouldn't break northward, and we'd have a solid high sitting to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 The antecedent air mass looks terrible like our other several teasers this year. I'd like to see some semblance of a decent Canadian HP. 1020 isn't getting it done apparently. Oh I thought you meant lock in snow. At this point, I'd be happy with an inch of slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 12z GGEM a little more "suppressed" than the GFS For Sunday "event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Might as well admit there's heavy interest in the Sunday possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Might as well admit there's heavy interest in the Sunday possibility. Time to see what the Craze Uncle and Euro say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Might as well admit I've had heavy interest in weenies for awhile and I'm sure when you all met me you knew it was a possibility. I never thought that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 main forum HM says JMA and latest Euro showing a brief dip into Phase 8. Baby steps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Might as well admit there's heavy interest in the Sunday possibility. Yes Time to see what the Craze Uncle and Euro say. Yes I never thought that. Yeah right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 main forum HM says JMA and latest Euro showing a brief dip into Phase 8. Baby steps.... I know phase 8 is God and phase 4 sucks, but can someone quickly describe what each entails? I know its MJO, but what is each phase and how many phases are there? Is there a chart? Thank you and I hope you all enjoy below normal temps, tracking snow events, and NFL playoff football.. Its a new year new month and it feels like we have turned a corner from that musty stench of a 2m atmosphere that has been kicking us in the nuts, causing friends to argue, and arguably winning Kevin WOTY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 12z GGEM a little more "suppressed" than the GFS For Sunday "event" my money is on that event trending more amplified and warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 main forum HM says JMA and latest Euro showing a brief dip into Phase 8. Baby steps.... Yeah it's interesting. I made a comment yesterday about how the GEFS and euro have changed places. The GEFS just rots the thing, while the euro tickles phases 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 my money is on that event trending more amplified and warmer Or just form as a wave along the front and not really be anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 my money is on that event trending more amplified and warmer You've had a rough winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 my money is on that event trending more amplified and warmer Seasonal trend would imply or hedge that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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