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One Year Later: Remembering the KU Boxing Day Blizzard HECS


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What is amazing is how well brooklyn did, never seen a storm where brooklyn recorded 10 inches more than LGA and the highest amounts on LI proper

The snow depth was insane. Never saw that in my life. I couldn't get into my backyard because the snow was blocking my door.

January 2011 was the best month for all of us...

What a month it was....

60 inches by Feb 1. I really thought we were going to beat 95-96.

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Well, the problem for me is that I cannot be sure because I didn't survey those areas. My instinct, which could be wrong, is that very few areas in Nassau actually touched 20". For Suffolk, I consider this a 12" - 15" type of storm from the county line to Riverhead. For the western half of NYC it was a 20" storm or more.

To really have accurately measured snowfall for a storm with that kind of wind, would probably require a gridded collection of measurements averaged from a large area, perhaps on a town-wide scale. Averaging 10 measurements from all over your front and back yard might not do the trick...the entire block could be effectively under a drift (or in the lee of one). So we are not going to resolve this scientifically; we just don't all have the same instincts about it.

Agreed...with a storm like this that had intense wind with a dry powdery snow, its almost impossible to measure. It won't pass the "eyeball test" either because of what you said...the eyeball test can deceive you on entire streets or blocks where drifting was intense while a few streets over it might be the opposite. Its just impossible to do it perfectly in a storm like that unless you have a huge sample of measurements over an equal distribution of drifting conditions. I "measured" about 12" from the storm but I honestly have zero clue if I got 9" or 14"...either would be acceptable with the way the storm was blowing the snow around.

It is my personal belief that it is a lot easier to over measure than under measure in a storm like that.

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Definitely not true. Im in Western/Central Nassau and measured 18-20, very hard obviously, but this was not in drifts either, the drifts were 40+ all over.

Take a look at the radar loop..nassau v suffolk was a huge difference...Western nassau was on the eastern edge of the mega band, suffolk got dryslotted on and off and had some p-type issues as well. I remember watching the eastern end of the band cut off mid-nassau county, and if you look at the totals, they really drop off east of farmingdale, which is spot on to the radar reflection that occurred.

I think the Fresh meadows observer is usually off, because i am 8-9 miles east of there and always have 3-4 inches more, so i think some of those eastern queens amounts are suspect.

I'd say we had at least 18 inches here, maybe 20. Not more than 20 though. I think some of the reports of 22-24" or more out of Nassau are suspect also. We're near the Queens border and we had some of the heaviest snow on Long Island. There were times from about 7-9pm where the snow lightened up a lot because of the dryslot coming rather close. But after that the snow intensified again and we had a good backlash throughout the night. We had about 14 inches or so before the backlash came through, and we had snow for a good number of hours after. But the wind did make it really hard to measure. I, Doug in RVC, and Alex in Woodmere all reported around the same range: 18-20" or so. For this area, that seems about right.

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I think a lot of the measuring problems were potentially due to cities and their landscape. With so many houses packed in tightly and strong winds, there was blow off from more roofs per area than in more suburban/rural areas, hence the potential for greater overmeasuring in dense urban environments. I measured (as best I could) 25" on the ground, but even if that was a perfect measurement (unlikely), it might have been inaccurate because the houses are so tightly packed here that practically 1/4th of the landscape is roofs that were completely lacking snow afterwards.... it had to go somewhere.

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12/25/2010:

590x443_12251420_severe1.png

Glenn Schwartz's forecast map:

Predicted_Snowfall_4p_10_20.jpg

Joe Bastardi tweet:

"UPDATING THIS MORNINGS POST.. SEVERE STORM TO SHUT NORTHEAST CORRIDOR PHL NORTHEAST FOR 12-24 HOURS. STORM FORCE GUSTS DELMARVA TO LONG ISLAND WITH 12-24 INCH AMOUNTS LEADING TO MASSIVE DRIFTS. AS BAD OR WORSE THAN ANY OF THE STORMS LAST YEAR FOR MANY PHL TO BOSTON, SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST. ROGUE CHARACTERISTICS WITH PRESSURE NEAR 28. 70 AT MOUTH OF DEL BAY TOMORROW NIGHT AND NEAR 28.55 BEFORE REACHING NEW ENGLAND."

DT's forecast map:

167212_155900501123883_129478830432717_278393_6343271_n.jpg

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

520 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

VALID 00Z SUN DEC 26 2010 - 00Z WED DEC 29 2010

DAYS 1-3...

...SOUTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A CYCLONE TRACK FOR A LOW FORECAST TO

DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT AND RAPIDLY INTENSITY

SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/LONG ISLAND/NEW ENGLAND

COAST. EVERY OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTION RESULTS IN A HEAVY SNOW

FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...WITH

PROBABILITIES INCREASING FOR AN AXIS OF 1-2 FEET OF SNOW TO OCCUR.

THE METRO AREAS FROM NEW YORK TO BOSTON AND PORTLAND MAINE HAVE

THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY SNOW/HEAVIEST FORECAST

ACCUMULATIONS...AND THE HIGHEST RESULTANT IMPACT. WASHINGTON DC

AND PHILADELPHIA INTO INTERIOR NY/VT/NH ARE IN A TIGHT QPF

GRADIENT WHERE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS IN THE CYCLONE TRACK AND

RESULTANT PLACEMENT OF THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WILL HAVE

A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE ACCUMULATIONS.

A WELL DEFINED AXIS OF 850-500 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND DEFORMATION

AXIS SUPPORTS THE SNOW RAPIDLY INCREASING WITHIN A BAND WITHIN AN

AREA OF STRONG 700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE

OF THE LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY INTO NEW

YORK/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING UP INTO

MAINE SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE PERIOD OF MOST RAPID DEEPENING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING

FAVORS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF INTENSE 1-2 INCH PER HOUR

SNOWFALL RATES IN NY/LONG ISLAND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH

PEAK FRONTOGENESIS SHOWN IN THE 18Z NAM/GFS ACROSS LONG ISLAND TO

SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS PERIOD. THE MODEL CONSENSUS

SHOWS A CHANGE OVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN OVER CAPE COD MA AND THE

ISLANDS...KEEPING POTENTIALS NOW AMOUNTS LOWER THERE. THIS IS

ALSO THE CASE FOR EASTERN NC...WITH THE 850 MB LOW TRACK ONSHORE

OVERNIGHT TO 12Z SUN SUGGESTING THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW OCCURS ONCE

THE LOW PASSES IN FAR EASTERN NC/COASTAL SOUNDS...WITH SUSTAINED

SNOW FURTHER NORTH IN CENTRAL NC AND SOUTHEAST VA ABOUT A DEGREE

TO THE LEFT OF THE 850 MB LOW TRACK.

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Most awesome storm, will never forget its prestorm model fiasco. I measure a avg of 27" but went with 25" official since most of the snow on the house roofs was blown off leaving 4" cornices on many. Impossibe to guess how much these roofs may have inflated the snow dept. i figured shaving off 2" from the total was a good estimate, however, the overall depth could have just as well been closer to 30". Some roofs had continuous drifts rising from the drive ways up to the roofs. I measured a 55" drift on my property with no bare spots but down by the sidewalk the dept was just 22" in many areas while a large portion of the back yard was over 30". Was very tough to get an accurate measurement.

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Today we get to a snow eating storm with no snow to eat away. The darn forsynthia and bradford pears are very close to breaking bud at this point. We are in the toity of winter patterns this year and the toity seat feels over our heads right now. Let's give a Mr. Hankey "howdy ho" to December 2011.

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I believe NYC recorded .29" in a one hour period at one point during the deformation banding. May have been .27", not totally sure, but either way pretty crazy during a snowstorm.

No way trials and algreek had thunder together in queens on 1-27......but the rest of the tri state slept through it.

Hands down the best storm of my life....just crippled the area.....I will never forget it and it was historic in every sense of the word

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The boxing day storm was the most impressive snowstorm I have ver witnessed, nudging out 1996. Both were about equal in snow amounts but the intensity and winds were much more impressive in the boxing day storm

Also ushered in the best 30+ day period of winter weather I have ever seen. Constant snow cover for 55+ days anothe Ku with 15 inches, many light to moderate snows, and cold.

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The boxing day storm was the most impressive snowstorm I have ver witnessed, nudging out 1996. Both were about equal in snow amounts but the intensity and winds were much more impressive in the boxing day storm

Also ushered in the best 30+ day period of winter weather I have ever seen. Constant snow cover for 55+ days anothe Ku with 15 inches, many light to moderate snows, and cold.

Exactly, 30 days, not a full winter like 95-96

blizzard of 96 was the best of a lot of great storms in 96, starting in early December and not stopping until middle of April

boxing day was in and out in less than a day, Blizzard 96 started at 6am Sunday and didn't end until 1pm on Monday.

A real storm in all respects.

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96 and PDII will always sit above Boxing Day because of the massive area that was affected. Boxing Day had some of the most intense banding and strongest winds I have every seen in my life, over a relaively isolated area. 96 crippled the whole I-95 corridor.

finally we agree on something.

and a lot of the 96 totals from the city north and east are vastly under-reported as has been mentioned here a lot by people with credibility.

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It's true, but for those that were in the heart of Boxing Day it was more intense than anybody really got in 96 from a wind and snowfall rate perspective. Some in the midatlantic would argue that 2/5/10 was better than 96, for them, even though many of us up this way saw nothing. So it really depends if we are talking about are own perspective or that of the overall area.

96 and PDII will always sit above Boxing Day because of the massive area that was affected. Boxing Day had some of the most intense banding and strongest winds I have every seen in my life, over a relaively isolated area. 96 crippled the whole I-95 corridor.

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