SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 If the RGEM and HRRR are onto something there may be a big surprise awaiting OK tomorrow...both the 00Z RGEM and the last 2 hourly panels of the latest HRRR show the same signal of an outbreak of overrunning precip across OK in WRN AR starting 15Z and going til 00Z tomorrow...the NAM shows a similar idea but well east into SRN MO and AR not over CNTRL or WRN OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 If the RGEM and HRRR are onto something there may be a big surprise awaiting OK tomorrow...both the 00Z RGEM and the last 2 hourly panels of the latest HRRR show the same signal of an outbreak of overrunning precip across OK in WRN AR starting 15Z and going til 00Z tomorrow...the NAM shows a similar idea but well east into SRN MO and AR not over CNTRL or WRN OK. You talking about icing tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Here is the RGEM's 3 hourly precip 15-18Z tomorrow....FYI its mainly snow NW OK, PL/ZR mix I40 and ZR south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 That's amazing. Makes the first round as or more potent than the second. The air here is completely saturated as of right now and I don't forsee that changing. Also not very often you see a south wind after a cold front. Crazy stuff coming..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I've also been seeing some pretty crazy expectancies for snow/water equivalents. 13:1 to 17:1. It would be amazing to see the higher end of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 00z NAM did track a bit farther north... Doug is probably going to readjust and put Joplin in the 2-5" range. The RAP is farther NW with the precip.... but I'm not in a trusting mood for the RAP.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Anybody see the RUC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Anybody see the RUC? RAP is the RUC now..... Err the RAP replaced the RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 RAP is the RUC now..... Err the RAP replaced the RUC. Ahh. I see. Should've known. SMH. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 00z NAM did track a bit farther north... Doug is probably going to readjust and put Joplin in the 2-5" range. The RAP is farther NW with the precip.... but I'm not in a trusting mood for the RAP.. lol Doug did just that. You are now right in the middle of the 2-5" range. He has the 5-8" band touching Monett just to mess with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 If the RGEM and HRRR are onto something there may be a big surprise awaiting OK tomorrow...both the 00Z RGEM and the last 2 hourly panels of the latest HRRR show the same signal of an outbreak of overrunning precip across OK in WRN AR starting 15Z and going til 00Z tomorrow...the NAM shows a similar idea but well east into SRN MO and AR not over CNTRL or WRN OK. We better hope so around OKC, because it looks like Friday's "main event" prospects may be disintegrating before our eyes, as happens here 80% of the time in the final 36 hours. Unfortunately, anything tomorrow will clearly be PL in the metro, as you pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 We better hope so around OKC, because it looks like Friday's "main event" prospects may be disintegrating before our eyes, as happens here 80% of the time in the final 36 hours. Unfortunately, anything tomorrow will clearly be PL in the metro, as you pointed out. Just because the NAM said so doesn't mean its true. Besides, Norman is 20ish miles south of OKC and I live in Noble. EDIT: 0Z GFS hasn't changed much. I don't trust the NAM much considering it's been fluctuating so much. Let see what the ECMWF shows later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Winter Storm Cleon?!?! WTH?!?? I can't stop laughing!!! Sooo stupid!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 HRRR with the first area of precip rollin' through. I have no idea how the HRRR does with winter precip... Nailed the tornado outbreak in IL/IN though last month. Sure makes a pretty cool looking map though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 HRRR with the first area of precip rollin' through. I have no idea how the HRRR does with winter precip... Nailed the tornado outbreak in IL/IN though last month. Sure makes a pretty cool looking map though. It absolutely nailed the event last week for OK/TX, I was all but ready to give up on the snow chances at OKC the night before with all the models seemingly showing nothing but kept it in my forecast because the HRRR showed about a 4-5 hour period where they would see snow and it ended up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z Euro "Snow" numbers... (went south) Chanute, KS: 0.6" Bartlesville, OK: 2.3" OKC: Around 6" Tulsa: 5.1-6.2" Joplin: 3.7" Monett: 5.2" Springfield: 4.2" NW Arkansas area: 6-6.3" Ft. Smith: Looks like 6.6" but might be 8.6" Little Rock: 5.4-6.x" 00z Euro "Snow" numbers: Chanute, KS: 2.1" Bartlesville, OK: 4.4" OKC: 6.5-7.1" or so Tulsa: 7.8-8.3" Joplin: 6.2" Monett: 8.0" Springfield: 7.3" NW Arkansas area: 7.x-9.3 (north to south) Ft. Smith: 9.7" Little Rock: 4.4-4.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 0Z ECMWF liquid accumulations and snow accumulations (10:1 ratio) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Jomo, how far does that Euro run go out to? I'm curious to see what this Sunday/Monday event is wanting to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Jomo, how far does that Euro run go out to? I'm curious to see what this Sunday/Monday event is wanting to do. That's just the first event. The second event has less QPF, but we'll probably have to watch ratios with that with all the cold air sitting around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 David, you have a lot of patience with the "public" on your Facebook. Some of those people are just.... yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 David, you have a lot of patience with the "public" on your Facebook. Some of those people are just.... yeah. With 285,000 folks you're bound to have a few asshats in the mix. After the rather big bust less than two weeks ago it certainly is understandable. Heck, I'm still nervous it will bust myself down in Texas even though the chance of that happening is becoming less and less. Luckily, I live up in Norman now so I should be able to continue coverage since we'll mainly have snow up here. Or at the least we won't have a huge ice storm like parts of SE OK and N TX will receive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 This could get interesting.... But I guess I have to sleep sometime? Last one for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 OUN just upgraded southern Oklahoma and Clay County in Texas to an Ice Storm Warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The HRRR paints that ol' I-44 special... that's some heavy precip tomorrow. This may indeed be an interesting storm. Talk about a nightmare home commute. A nightmare in the best sense, for a weenie such as myself. How do I sleep tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 The HRRR paints that ol' I-44 special... that's some heavy precip tomorrow. This may indeed be an interesting storm. Talk about a nightmare home commute. A nightmare in the best sense, for a weenie such as myself. How do I sleep tonight? The RAP has been very consistent in placing a swath of snow near I-44 in NE OK/SW MO as well with the initial round. I'm going to try to get some sleep. Had to look at the 06z NAM before bed though. It jumped farther north in pure NAM 'last minute adjustment' fashion. Springfield, MO threw this up at 2:22 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hallelujah. I'm going to go ahead and officially allow myself to be excited. We're going to have a nice storm. 1. I'm interested in what the ratios turn out to be; particualrly overnight tomorrow and Friday morning 2. It's interesting that it seems earlier guidance is often closer to what appears to be verifying here and in recent events than guidance 24-48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Well, well, well... RAP and HRRR are going to make this interesting. SGF is planning to expand Winter Storm Warning a row of counties northward this morning via the latest forecast discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Hallelujah. I'm going to go ahead and officially allow myself to be excited. We're going to have a nice storm. 1. I'm interested in what the ratios turn out to be; particualrly overnight tomorrow and Friday morning 2. It's interesting that it seems earlier guidance is often closer to what appears to be verifying here and in recent events than guidance 24-48 hours out. Can you send us some of your upper level cold- we need something to save us from the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Radar has filled in extremely fast over the last hour. LET'S GET READY TO RUMBLE!!!! Good luck to everyone!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Radar has filled in extremely fast over the last hour. LET'S GET READY TO RUMBLE!!!! Good luck to everyone!!! I was getting a wee bit nervous much earlier this morning because the radar was looking a bit... um... sparse, not just nearby but even far to the southwest. Thankfully, it is looking MUCH better. I am now fairly confident that we are in for some fun, and that fun might just start a bit earlier than I thought. I am still not so sure exactly how much fun we will have down here or what type of fun it will be, but it is definitely going to start getting interesting around here probably by early afternoon today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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