LocoAko Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The 00Z NAM, as Brett has been playing up, shows a total sleet fest, at least here in the OKC/OUN metro. Seems to show upwards of 0.8-0.9" of liquid falling as sleet before finally changing over to snow by 12Z Friday morning. While IP isn't quite as bad as ZR, it is still a royal pain and snow would be much preferred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 This is looking pretty impressive from a frozen precip standpoint, hopefully more snow. The friday round looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 This is looking pretty impressive from a frozen precip standpoint, hopefully more snow. The friday round looking better. I agree. Am hoping the colder column/surface temps translate to even higher than expected snowfall totals. I can hope right. Lol. All other parameters still looking strong as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Even the GGEM has a little more juice this run. Now to see what the Euro says in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Ron Hearst on KY3 seemed to be concerned with the potential hooking into the old "Pineapple Express" during his forecast tonight. Was interesting to hear coming from him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I'm still thinking just a little more west-east than SW-NE with the main band of heavy accumulations than what the models are showing all other parts look fantastic. I think the main threat for ice or a sleet crapfest stays around I-40 and points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 00z Euro Total Snowfall: Bartlesville... 4.5" Tulsa,... 5.1" Joplin... 5.5" Monett... 6.6" Springfield... 6.7" NW Arkansas (Bentonville, Fayetteville)... 7.2" Ft. Smith 8.2" Big winner is around Harrison, AR with 9.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Holy moly!! The Euro is wanting to create a LOT of snow across the central and southern plains!!! Practically snow in every state..WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I feel I need to remind folks that the European snow graphics are simply derived from precipitation falling with surface temperatures below 32°F. In fact, the higher snow totals across Southeast Oklahoma and Arkansas wuold likely fall as freezing rain/sleet, greatly reducing snow amounts while causing a significant and potentially crippling ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Am I missing something? SGF only going with 2-4"? I figured it might be a bit more bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 As of early this morning, NWS Norman, Tulsa and Little Rock have all put up Winter Storm Watches for Thursday and Friday. Amarillo (because they are looking at mostly just light snow at this point), Dallas (waiting for more definitive details) and Springfield (the timeline for frozen precip is further out for their CWA) are each going with Special Weather Statements at this point. For obvious reasons, none of them are going too far out on a limb yet with firm details on potential accumulations or snow/sleet/freezing rain lines, but we can at least feel confident that we've all got some weather coming. Now comes the hard part: Watching and waiting and hoping the details, as they crystallize, work out in each of our backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Am I missing something? SGF only going with 2-4"? I figured it might be a bit more bullish. Nah, there's going to be a large area of sleet. The area where the snow falls the longest is going to be on the fringes of the light precip. Especially with that 850 MB front not wanting to budge much until round 2 of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 OKC guys are saying the models are trending further east with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 KY3 forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 OKC guys are saying the models are trending further east with this storm. Further east of where? OKC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The Thursday event may not happen at all for OKC...that's what one met on another site was saying. I don't believe that. However, the GFS and NAM both did move the main amounts of precip further east for Thursday. I think it's delaying it till Friday according to what I can see. Here's what the met said. I will leave him nameless. " don't think it was the change itself that was crazy, it appears the magnitude of the shift is what's thrown a wrench into things. From what I'm reading/inferring, the sure-fire 100% event that's been on tap for OKC on Thursday may not happen at all if the models are right and the storm pushes off farther east" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 He goes on to elaborate: "Latest GFS has snow band basically only SE of OKC area and only dumping measurable amounts in SC OK. Latest NAM has snow band up in KS and MO.So basically the GFS is trending slightly further east and the NAM is trending way northeast (it thinks the low will not track this far south and thus won't get going with sufficient moisture until reaching MO.This afternoon and tonight's runs will help clear some things up. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Unless the Euro pulls a significant move today I certainly wouldn't knee jerk any one solution right now. Steady the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 The Thursday event may not happen at all for OKC...that's what one met on another site was saying. I don't believe that. However, the GFS and NAM both did move the main amounts of precip further east for Thursday. I think it's delaying it till Friday according to what I can see. Here's what the met said. I will leave him nameless. " don't think it was the change itself that was crazy, it appears the magnitude of the shift is what's thrown a wrench into things. From what I'm reading/inferring, the sure-fire 100% event that's been on tap for OKC on Thursday may not happen at all if the models are right and the storm pushes off farther east" For whatever it is worth, Thursday (daytime) was not really considered the "main event" here in OKC... at least not based on what I was seeing (and I am definitely not an expert so take it with a grain of salt). As I understood it, the thinking was that Thursday's "event" was going to be a bit of fairly light freezing rain and sleet in OKC. Then, Thursday night into Friday there would be a second heavier period of precipitation with the potential for several inches of sleet and/or snow. Regardless, this plays right into my concerns. My fear all along (for Central OK) has been that the Arctic push ends up stronger than what the models are predicting (which is a pretty standard model error) and it pushes the front and the precipitation further to the south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Unless the Euro pulls a significant move today I certainly wouldn't knee jerk any one solution right now. Steady the course. Yeah, only a 30 minute wait, heh... the 12z GFS did move a bit south today, but north or south movements can be expected from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 He goes on to elaborate: "Latest GFS has snow band basically only SE of OKC area and only dumping measurable amounts in SC OK. Latest NAM has snow band up in KS and MO. So basically the GFS is trending slightly further east and the NAM is trending way northeast (it thinks the low will not track this far south and thus won't get going with sufficient moisture until reaching MO. This afternoon and tonight's runs will help clear some things up. " We are still a bit far out for the NAM, and, if we are being brutally honest, even inside of 24 hours, the NAM isn't exactly a prize pig. Still, it definitely bears watching, especially for us folks down here in Central OK. It doesn't sound quite so disconerting up toward Tulsa and points north and east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Yeah, only a 30 minute wait, heh... the 12z GFS did move a bit south today, but north or south movements can be expected from run to run. Certainly. I still think the main show is late Thur into early Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 NJ_Ken: I agree completely. The NAM is well...The NAM. On a different subject...has anyone noticed how flipping COLD it's going to be next week?? At first I looked at the GFS, thinking the map was in Celcius...ugh NO! For December 11, it has OKC in the -10s...yes, that is in F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Certainly. I still think the main show is late Thur into early Friday. yeah, that's when the stronger of the waves comes out and more of the area should see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 12z Euro "Snowfall" numbers... The first round is still kind of meh, so most of this comes during the second round. Chanute, KS: 2.1" Bartlesville, OK: 4.0" Tulsa: 6.0" OKC area: 5.5-6.0" Joplin: 5.6" Monett: 7.8" Springfield: 7.4" NW Arkansas conglomeration: 6.5-7.1" Ft. Smith: 8.6" Harrison, AR has around 10.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Geez, I feel like a crack addict... Why do we love this so much??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Geez, I feel like a crack addict... Why do we love this so much??? I don't know. I like tracking the storms and then watching the snow fall. I'm not someone that needs to see it on the ground for an extended period of time... not that we get a lot of that happening here anyway.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 12z Euro "Snowfall" numbers... The first round is still kind of meh, so most of this comes during the second round. Chanute, KS: 2.1" Bartlesville, OK: 4.0" Tulsa: 6.0" OKC area: 5.5-6.0" Joplin: 5.6" Monett: 7.8" Springfield: 7.4" NW Arkansas conglomeration: 6.5-7.1" Ft. Smith: 8.6" Harrison, AR has around 10.2" Thanks man I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Thanks man I'll take it. Yeah that's probably a mix of snow and sleet so it won't be that much probably... but you can get precip amounts from that. Actually looking at QPF from the GFS/Euro/NAM through hour 84..... The NAM has the most QPF... .. Throwing back 0.9" QPF over Joplin..... The Euro has 0.6" QPF.... The GFS comes in at 0.4-0.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 NWS Tulsa seems to be going with the US 412 area from Eastern Oklahoma into NWA as the major "dump zone" for snow and beefed up totals a little. This is in pretty decent agreement with what I was thinking last night. More of a west to east motion with the second piece of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.