JoMo Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 No change in thinking from the above post on the next system. The areas that may see the best chance of a mix should be over far southern areas. There's a lot of dry air farther north that will probably eat up most of the precip... still could see a few flurries or some light stuff farther north though. 00z GFS would have the next interesting system around Dec 2-4th but that could change in future runs. Looks like continued cold in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Snow and sleet moving into southern portions of NE OK this morning. No change in thinking, far south areas of NE OK and NW AR will have the best chance of seeing light amounts of snow/sleet. 12z GFS still showing the next system around Dec 2nd-4th. A lot of different things can happen with this system or a system behind it. Lots of time between now and then though. 00z Euro Ensembles were still cold with no overall change to the setup in the long range. (Day 11-15) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Very light snow and sleet mix here, 30 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 24, 2013 Share Posted November 24, 2013 Nice, it was just cold and dry here today. Kind of disappointed in the Chiefs, which isn't new, but they should have won today! I looked at the 18z GFS and got kind of cheered up though. Cold air lurking around with an active storm track could mean a lot of fun the first week or two of December. It depends on how far south and east the cold air sinks but it's looking pretty good at this time...... I probably just jinxed it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Nice, it was just cold and dry here today. Kind of disappointed in the Chiefs, which isn't new, but they should have won today! I looked at the 18z GFS and got kind of cheered up though. Cold air lurking around with an active storm track could mean a lot of fun the first week or two of December. It depends on how far south and east the cold air sinks but it's looking pretty good at this time...... I probably just jinxed it though. Cant be no worst then me jinxing stuff most times lol! I really do think we have a good shot at a decent winter this season jomo....and no I didn't eat too many beans haha!!! Its just off and on very light sleet pellets now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Ummm... what is the 00z GFS doing??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 LMBO!! Just saw the Oz GFS!! Talk about being out for lunch!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Talking about this? Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 Best chance of snow or a mix today will be across NW Arkansas and extreme E OK, possibly moving into Southern MO but it shouldn't amount to much. Thanksgiving still looks cool with temps in the 40's. Then it looks somewhat boring for awhile. The models are shifting to more of a -PNA type look in the medium range (Day 7-10), which means a trough in the west with the coldest air dropping down into the west. Hopefully it will be far enough east that we end up on the cold side of the trough. Still a lot of time for these things to be sorted out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 25, 2013 Share Posted November 25, 2013 The next interesting bit of weather (meaning snow or ice chances) will probably come around Dec 5th (around 10 days) when the western trough moves in. We look to be on the far SE side of the trough, which is usually a good position for precip at some point. The cold frontal timing will change but all of the models have it roughly moving through the area by the morning of Dec 5th..... The 12z Euro has it past the area and in central Arkansas to SE MO with the freezing line roughly along I-44 and points NW. The 12z Euro Ensembles in the Day 11-15 range starts to shift the blocking up near Alaska to the NW a bit, which is going to want to cause the SE ridge to have more influence and push a bit back to the NW as well. We'll see what happens. Doug Heady is doing his winter forecast tonight during the 10 PM newscast. I'll post what he says, or link to the forecast when he posts it online later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Doug Heady says: Below Average Temps... Average Precip A couple of ice storms 15-20" of snow (average is 17" here) (if we don't get the ice storms, snow will be higher) About 15 events....... 5 bigger storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Doug Heady says: Below Average Temps... Average Precip A couple of ice storms 15-20" of snow (average is 17" here) (if we don't get the ice storms, snow will be higher) About 15 events....... 5 bigger storms... Great sounding forecast hope he's close. Tks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Doug Heady says: Below Average Temps... Average Precip A couple of ice storms 15-20" of snow (average is 17" here) (if we don't get the ice storms, snow will be higher) About 15 events....... 5 bigger storms... Matches what I told everybody for NE OK and NWA this year. I hope it works out. Will be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Here's a link to Doug's blog about the winter pattern and his forecast. http://weather.koamtv.com/2013/11/26/updated-blog-tuesday-am-holiday-weather-and-winter-forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Thanks JoMo! I wasn't able to catch his forecast last night. I hope the ice is minimal, but it seems to have that sort of set-up. If the storm system yesterday had been further north we would have had problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Thanks JoMo! I wasn't able to catch his forecast last night. I hope the ice is minimal, but it seems to have that sort of set-up. If the storm system yesterday had been further north we would have had problems. I'll take ice or snow. Just not a lot of ice if it has to be ice. The 00z Euro caused quite a scare as it went warmer in the extended, but the 12z Euro put everything back on track as far as an Arctic cold front coming in around Dec 5th or so. All that energy dropping into the west is going to be a headache for the models to sort out. Depending on how far south the front makes it, and depending on what happens after that, it could be a rainy/icy/snowy setup for us after the frontal passage. People have been mentioning 2007, which had a few big ice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Ron Hearst from KY3 was really hammering the potential for a bitterly cold period from Dec. 4-10 time frame on the news @ 9 last night. That would seem about right with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 Whoops! ...NO SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING IN THE JOPLIN AREA...WHILE CONDUCTING A ROUTINE WEEKLY TEST OF THE NOAA WEATHER RADIOTRANSMITTER IN JOPLIN...THE TEST SIGNAL WAS INADVERTENTLY SENTAS A TORNADO WARNING. THIS SIGNAL MAY HAVE ALSO BEEN PICKED UP ANDDISSEMINATED BY RADIO OR TELEVISION STATIONS. WE WANT TO EMPHASIZETHAT THERE IS NO SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRING ANYWHERE ACROSSSOUTHEASTERN KANSAS OR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. WE APOLOGIZE FOR THEERROR. And yes, the cold air is coming, regardless of the model you look at. The models are still having issues with the timing though and precip is up in the air as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 00z/12z Euro seems to be flip-flopping a bit from one run to the next. The cold is definitely on its way though. It would be nice to have some snow to go along with it. The models will probably play catch-up to just how cold this airmass is, so as we get closer, they will probably get colder and colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted November 27, 2013 Share Posted November 27, 2013 It's brilliantly sunny and only the upper 30's here. This kind of weather makes me feel alive. This recent cold snap has been great. Real-deal Arctic air is getting involved early this year. A local meteorologist whom I respect (Mike Collier) said a couple of days ago that we will need to wait and see, but the upcoming pattern could produce a December similar to 2000 in these parts. Who knows, but there are positive signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Happy Thanksgiving to all, and try not to get trampled if you are going shopping on Black Friday! Our next system that will need watched for southward progress with the Arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 That system at 168-192 on the GFS definitely looks like ice storm material for someone, if the generalities verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 28, 2013 Share Posted November 28, 2013 Happy Turkey Day all. David Koeller from the FOX affiliate in Springfield put out his winter forecast and is calling for below average temps and above average precip, including above average snow. He said that he believes it could be average to slightly below average snow IF we get more ice than expected (which he seemed to indicate was possible). Seems like everyone is basically thinking about the same thing for the winter. We shall see if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Both the 12z Euro and the 18z GFS went with more of a big storm system tracking to our west before the cold gets here. Not much consistency from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Both the 12z Euro and the 18z GFS went with more of a big storm system tracking to our west before the cold gets here. Not much consistency from run to run. 0z GFS looking much better for end of next week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 0z GFS looking much better for end of next week now. Yeah, big ice storm for OK, sleet to snow storm for us up here in MO. It's still so far out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 00z Euro was a run that was somewhat similar to the 00z GFS. It does some different stuff up north near the Canadian border but the entire region gets frozen precip at roughly the same time as the 00z GFS has it. This is a positive step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Yeah, big ice storm for OK, sleet to snow storm for us up here in MO. It's still so far out though. Yeah, a lot can change between now and then but some mets think the cold air may be well in place closer to the start of precipitation for our area. This could be a good one. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 Here is a snippet from the morning Tulsa discussion. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MEMORY BY LATE NEXTWEEK AS THIS ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE SRN PLAINS/OZARKS.ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIP IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY AS THISARCTIC AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ANYWINTRY PRECIP APPEARS TO OCCUR JUST OUTSIDE OF THIS FORECASTPERIOD SO HAVE CARRIED ALL LIQUID BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT ANDCONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. And so the model watching begins every run... ha ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted November 29, 2013 Share Posted November 29, 2013 And the 12z GFS continues to show the classic overrunning type setup for late next week - along the line's of Tulsa's thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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