JoMo Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 12z GEM is a bit farther north with the snow... Looks like the 850 MB front doesn't make it as far south on the GEM. Ice will be south of the snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 12z Euro.. Watching football so haven't dug a lot into it but it still has the same storm as the GEM and GFS above....... This run has the heaviest frozen precip over N Arkansas and S Missouri and extreme E OK. The least amount is over SE KS and the NW parts of NE OK. Everyone gets frozen precip though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Wish I had access to the euro. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 We are still about 24-48 hours away from watches. Should be interesting to read the afternoon forecast discussions. Glad to see a slight shift back north this morning and everyone still in the crosshairs. Wonder how forecasters predicted the weather before I-44 was built? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 12z Euro also has another burst of precip in primarily Arkansas and S MO at 174-180 (next Sunday) that would be frozen as well....... Positive tilt trough still in the west is going to shear out, maybe some more precip in AR as it does so but the temps warm on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Don't quote the image since it's linked.... but a couple of the GFS Ensemble members are really pushing the precip. North of the 540 line is typically where you'd get snow, however these maps don't mark the freezing line. My guess would be a couple of these show a huge ice storm. (P001, P003) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 So here is a question... sorry if it is stupid. It seems like systems usually slow down as the event gets closer, but in this instance it seems to be speeding up the arrival of the cold air as well as the precip. Is there any signal the models are rushing it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 So here is a question... sorry if it is stupid. It seems like systems usually slow down as the event gets closer, but in this instance it seems to be speeding up the arrival of the cold air as well as the precip. Is there any signal the models are rushing it? I'm not sure but I don't think so. They all have similar timing, and we're in a very fast non-blocky kind of flow, and this is mainly positively tilted overrunning precip instead of a well wound up storm, which tends to come out slower than modeled. The main questions are going to be where the front is, where the 850 MB front is, (the second burst of precip looks to occur very near or north of it) and how much precip is generated north of both the fronts. Not going to know the answer to those questions until right before the event. I'm just happy all three models agree on some type of frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 The good ole NAM will be in range by tomorrow so we'll see what it shows. As crazy as it is I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 get of snow on the map somewhere. Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 The good ole NAM will be in range by tomorrow so we'll see what it shows. As crazy as it is I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 get of snow on the map somewhere. Lol! yeah, the NAM sucks. lol It'll probably be a more amped up solution resulting in rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 My NWS forecast has "Snow Likely" on Thursday and Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 I'm anxious to see how this plays out. With it still being so far out I'm not leaning strongly one way or the other. I just do NOT want ice. I do not want ice at all...I'm going to be in western KS working this week so I'm really hoping that we get to leave a day early which would be Wednesday and beat this thing home. I've seen systems like this fizzle out so many times that it wouldn't surprise me if we got no snow...but a few years ago I remember we just got dumped on. Right now it definitely looks like a few inches of snow will fall here in the Tulsa metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 There are starting to be some pretty decent hints as well of the pattern continuing through mid December. I like this a lot. Of course every storm is different but its nice to see it continue. Definitely hoping the coldest air stays on this side of the north pole this year through February at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 There are starting to be some pretty decent hints as well of the pattern continuing through mid December. I like this a lot. Of course every storm is different but its nice to see it continue. Definitely hoping the coldest air stays on this side of the north pole this year through February at least. Eh, Not liking that trough in the Gulf of Alaska showing up in the long range... not liking that at all.. but I don't think it's going to stay there and 'torch' us the rest of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Tulsa is bumping up totals in case anyone is interested:) Predicting 4-5 inches here in Tulsa and .06 inch of ice. Hmmmm... We have been burned with everything looking good 3-4 days out and have it blow up in our face. Trying to remain mildly optimistic...want enough snow/ice so I don't have to drive from Tulsa to OKC for a conference on Friday morning.That's not asking too much, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Eh, Not liking that trough in the Gulf of Alaska showing up in the long range... not liking that at all.. but I don't think it's going to stay there and 'torch' us the rest of the winter. I'm just thinking a little more east based cold intrusions if anything. Only problem is that it tends to favor a lot more overrunning of storms when the mid levels are saturated. Thinking January 2009 type situations. I know that's a doom and gloomy prognosis but everything I have seen thus far has led me to believe that someone in our area will get a massive ice event this year. If the cold shifts slightly to the eastern half of the country its almost a certainty. Thoughts on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Tulsa is bumping up totals in case anyone is interested:) Predicting 4-5 inches here in Tulsa and .06 inch of ice. Hmmmm... We have been burned with everything looking good 3-4 days out and have it blow up in our face. Trying to remain mildly optimistic...want enough snow/ice so I don't have to drive from Tulsa to OKC for a conference on Friday morning.That's not asking too much, right? I'm giving it another day or two but I would be lying if I said I'm not a little excited. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I'm just thinking a little more east based cold intrusions if anything. Only problem is that it tends to favor a lot more overrunning of storms when the mid levels are saturated. Thinking January 2009 type situations. I know that's a doom and gloomy prognosis but everything I have seen thus far has led me to believe that someone in our area will get a massive ice event this year. If the cold shifts slightly to the eastern half of the country its almost a certainty. Thoughts on that? If the AO and NAO remain positive and the PNA negative, east based shots of cold will be hard to come by. I think the trough that sets up in the Gulf of Alaska will be transient and it'll dig southeast in time, at least I hope so, otherwise it'll flood the US with mild pacific air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Tulsa is bumping up totals in case anyone is interested:) Predicting 4-5 inches here in Tulsa and .06 inch of ice. Hmmmm... We have been burned with everything looking good 3-4 days out and have it blow up in our face. Trying to remain mildly optimistic...want enough snow/ice so I don't have to drive from Tulsa to OKC for a conference on Friday morning.That's not asking too much, right? Just noticed that. Nice. I think someone in our area will get something frozen, just not sure where and how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Time for the 00z GFS to start. The 00z NAM has precip blossoming in OK at hour 84 around the 850 MB front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Time for the 00z GFS to start. The 00z NAM has precip blossoming in OK at hour 84 around the 850 MB front. JoMo does this look like we get our heinie handed to us with ice on this one here in Joplin area ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 JoMo does this look like we get our heinie handed to us with ice on this one here in Joplin area ??? It's a bit foggy tonight isn't it? Smells like wood smoke as well. Great night! As for the ice/snow solution, that's going to depend on how deep and how far south the arctic air makes it, also going to depend on how far north the precip makes it into the cold air. It'll take another day or two to get it all sorted out. As it looks now, we will probably see more sleet and snow vs freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 It's a bit foggy tonight isn't it? Smells like wood smoke as well. Great night! As for the ice/snow solution, that's going to depend on how deep and how far south the arctic air makes it, also going to depend on how far north the precip makes it into the cold air. It'll take another day or two to get it all sorted out. As it looks now, we will probably see more sleet and snow vs freezing rain. Yes it is foggy and the wood smoke is wonderful make me want to fire up the wood stove but going to wait until I actually need it, instead of staring at the fire or roasting some smores or hotdogs in it hahaha. but it is a great night with the fog and smoke in the air .. smell like fall in Joplin right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Round 1, Thurs morning into Thursday afternoon. Round 2... Late Thursday Night and Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 So the snow (may have ice/sleet mixed in) looks like: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Still, 6-8 inches of snow and frigid air for a few days sounds awesome to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Still, 6-8 inches of snow and frigid air for a few days sounds awesome to me. Thats backed off quite a bit since the last run though if I remember correctly. It was 10-12 inches if I'm not mistaken...I don't mind a little snow and the cold weather (cold is good for the business I'm in) but I dont want to be snowed in for a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Thats backed off quite a bit since the last run though if I remember correctly. It was 10-12 inches if I'm not mistaken...I don't mind a little snow and the cold weather (cold is good for the business I'm in) but I dont want to be snowed in for a week I hear ya man. I don't care much for the weather disrupting lives but I'd like to see snow long enough to be a little tired of it for a season. I haven't seen a good snow lay on the ground for several days in a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Wait wait wait.. there's another system that moves through on Saturday... So total from both the systems looks like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 JACKPOT!!! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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