OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

[The Waterboy]

Can anyone tell if the cold front is on schedule, ahead, or behind what the models are showing? I saw earlier this morning it was pushing throw southern Neb and about to enter KS.

Edit: NWS Tulsa says the cold front should push through Tulsa by 18z (noon) tomorrow. This is well in advance of precip Thurs morning.

[MoWeatherguy]

Anybody have any totals from the GGEM?  I read somewhere it was similar to the Euro.

[ouamber]

Here is the Canadian through 120hr...

[NJ_Ken]

^{For what it's worth, OUN has added some details for their forecast.  Their thinking is that Central Oklahoma still gets light freezing rain during the day on Thursday.  Nothing overly heavy, but enough to cause some problems on the roads if one is doing something stupid (like driving too fast on an overpass).  Then, the main event with mostly snow and sleet for Central OK gets geared up Thursday night into Friday.  Their first estimate is for a band of 2" to 4" snow/sleet totals to fall to the north of I-44.  The southern boundary of that area is literally just a few miles north of OKC and roughly parallels I-44 toward Tulsa.  The northern/western boundary of that area is on a line running roughly from Clinton to Enid, OK.  There is also a small area of 4"+ in their forecast that is very roughly north of the Stillwater and east of I-35, and that area looks to continue to the east and north.  If you continued their forecast to the north and east, it would appear that Tulsa is in the 2" to 4" area and Joplin is in the 4"+ area.  Probably 20 miles or so south of I-44 (again on a line pretty much paralleling I-44), they are predicting mostly just ice for places like Lawton, Ada and Ardmore.}     

 

^{For those keeping score (and these are rough estimates based on interpolation of OUN's initial rough forecast so keep that in mind), it would look like something like an inch or so in Norman, Altus and Woodward; 2" in Clinton and (especially just north of) OKC; 3" in Enid; and maybe as much as 4" in (or near) Ponca City and Stillwater.}   

[MoWeatherguy]

OK tks Amber

[MoWeatherguy]

Afternoon disco from SGF regarding totals:

 

By the time precipitation ends Friday afternoon, snowfall amounts at
this time look to be in the 2-5 inch range, with a few localized
areas perhaps touching 6 inches.  Some sleet will also be mixed in,
especially along and just south of the I-44 corridor.  A glaze to a
tenth of an inch of freezing rain will be possible on Thursday
across southern Missouri, with 3-5 inches of snow accumulating once
precipitation transitions to all snow Thursday night and especially
on Friday. Total accumulations, especially snow amounts, will be
highly dependent on the exact ratio of mixed precipitation.  A
longer duration of sleet will cut down significantly on snow
amounts, while less or no sleet will result in higher than currently
forecast snowfall.  Given the fact that these differences will be
dependent on a degree or two difference in temperature over a few
tens of miles, accumulation amounts are most certainly subject to
change.

 

Saturday looks to be a calm but very cold day for the region, with
temperatures remaining in the low to mid 20s.  An additional round
of precipitation, most likely in the form of snow, is expected to
overspread the region late Saturday night and early Sunday, with a
few additional inches of snow possible by Sunday night.

 

[ouamber]

GOOD GRIEF!!! 

[MoWeatherguy]

I can say that is certainly fun to look at.

[JoMo]

Yeah the NAM is a blast, lol

 

I mowed for the final time today. Good chance I'm going to be blowing snow 2-3 days from now, haha

 

The 18z GFS isn't stopping the precip between the 'rounds'. Looks like it has again sunk a little farther south though.

 

Sharp cutoff on the north side..... Again, most of the stuff across Arkansas and SE Oklahoma will probably be sleet, so disregard the totals.

 

[Spot]

The NAM is overflowing with moisture and lift. Ice/Sleet storm here... Some areas still could end up with a pretty big Ice event south east OK and AR. SW MO still looks to be mostly snow. Still 36 hrs away though

[JoMo]

Tulsa had a really long discussion:

 

 

 

NOW TO THE MEAT OF THIS FORECAST. A VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN
IS EVOLVING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AS I TYPE...WITH A RIDGE NOSING
WELL UP INTO ALASKA...AND A DEEP POSITIVE TILT DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS HAS CREATED A CROSS-POLAR
FLOW CLEAR FROM SIBERIA DOWN INTO NORTH AMERICA. WORSE YET...THIS
PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR ABOUT A WEEK...SENDING SHOT AFTER
SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR DOWN INTO THE CONUS AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE
AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX OVER CENTRAL CANADA. THE INITIAL SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW...AND WILL UNDERCUT A STRONG BELT
OF SW FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH. THE FIRST
ROUND OF PRECIP WILL BE FORCED MAINLY BY LOW TO MID LVL
FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH WILL KICK IN BY EARLY THURSDAY. THE MODELS
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A RATHER IMPRESSIVE BAND OF PRECIP
FROM SE OK UP INTO NRN AR ON THURSDAY. NE OK WILL BE ON THE FRINGE
OF THE BEST FN FORCING...AND WILL SEE LIGHTER PRECIP AMOUNTS AS A
RESULT. IN FACT...PORTIONS OF OSAGE COUNTY MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING
WITH THIS FIRST ROUND. NAM/GFS TEMP PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A BAND
OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS POSSIBLE FROM SE OK UP INTO W CNTRL AR AND
PORTIONS OF NW AR. SOME PLACES HERE MAY PICK UP A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF ICE ACCUMULATION...WHICH COULD CAUSE POWER OUTAGES AND
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL ISSUES. A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT SLEET
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE JUST NORTH OF WHERE THE ZR/IP LINE SETS
UP...MOST LIKELY FROM E CNTRL AND EVENTUALLY PORTIONS OF SE OK
INTO W CNTRL AND NW AR AS THE COLDER AIR GETS DEEPER WITH TIME
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL ISSUES AS
WELL. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER. THE FN FORCING SHIFTS SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY EVENING AND
WEAKENS OVER OUR AREA...ENDING THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP.

ROUND TWO BEGINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTS EAST FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. THE
INCREASING QG FORCING WILL BE MORE BROAD AND WILL COVER MORE OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS GO AROUND. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A NICE WSW-
ENE ORIENTED DEFORMATION ZONE WILL SET UP FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR. LAYER TEMP PROFILES FORECAST BY THE
GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST SNOW OR SNOW/SLEET FOR NE OK AND NW AR...WITH
MORE SLEET ACROSS MUCH OF SE OK AND W CNTRL AR. BASED ON QPF...THIS
COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION.
HOWEVER...THE WARM NOSE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR MORE ZR AND THUS
ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS FAR SE OK INTO W CNTRL AR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ROUND TWO GETS GOING. BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE WARM LAYER
IS ERODED ENOUGH FROM THE NORTH TO SHIFT THE BEST ICE POTENTIAL
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST
THAT THE QG FORCING WILL SHUT OFF RAPIDLY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY AS THE
WAVE SHEARS OUT AND LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE PLAINS. ROUND TWO
WILL LIKELY BRING MORE TRAVEL HEADACHES ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. POWER INTERRUPTIONS EITHER MAY DEVELOP OR
CONTINUE OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST ICE ACCUMULATION
FROM THESE FIRST TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIP.

[bubba hotep]

Yeah the NAM is a blast, lol

 

I mowed for the final time today. Good chance I'm going to be blowing snow 2-3 days from now, haha

 

The 18z GFS isn't stopping the precip between the 'rounds'. Looks like it has again sunk a little farther south though.

 

Sharp cutoff on the north side..... Again, most of the stuff across Arkansas and SE Oklahoma will probably be sleet, so disregard the totals.

 

 

I like how that extends a finger down into N. Texas for MBY lol

[JoMo]

00z NAM is going to be faster with the front. Not so good for me, but probably better for those SE of me. 

 

Doug's newest updated amounts:

 

[MoWeatherguy]

Yah looks like a slight jog SE

[MoWeatherguy]

Stick with the consistent Euro.

[wildweatherman179]

00z NAM is going to be faster with the front. Not so good for me, but probably better for those SE of me.

Doug's newest updated amounts:

Yeah. I'm hoping they have it nailed right where its at though. If things are even close to right at this moment, I'm getting a great snow with little sleet or ice.

[Wx 24/7]

I think the GFS and EURO runs will be the most telling. The NAM just seems to be "correcting" itself so to speak.

[wildweatherman179]

I think the GFS and EURO runs will be the most telling. The NAM just seems to be "correcting" itself so to speak.

Yeah, NAM is being pretty ridiculous. The GFS has been running incredibly consistent over the last 2 days. I'm pretty impressed.

[MoWeatherguy]

I think the GFS and EURO runs will be the most telling. The NAM just seems to be "correcting" itself so to speak.

Yes I agree Gary. We were basically waiting on this.

[JoMo]

Yes I agree Gary. We were basically waiting on this.

 

Remember the years of the NW trend? Bad times, bad times... lol

[Wx 24/7]

NAM and GFS 00z snowfall outputs are pretty similar at first glance...

[JoMo]

00z GFS frozen stuff map. Compared to the 18z map... amounts increased in NW Arkansas the most.... The axis of heaviest frozen stuff (6"+) did not move very much at all. The lighter stuff, increased to the NW.

 

 

[MoWeatherguy]

NW AR looking like a good spot.

[brettjrob]

It's at least nice to see that the GFS and NAM have trended toward each other (NW and SE, respectively) from 12z to 00z today. Doubtful that it's indicative of a permanent convergence of solutions, but we can pretend for now.

[OUGrad05]

seems the trend is for this to push more and more to the south and east, by a few miles every run....

[Spot]

seems the trend is for this to push more and more to the south and east, by a few miles every run....

I hope it keeps trending colder and maybe the ICE will move south of me!

[JoMo]

I hope it keeps trending colder and maybe the ICE will move south of me!

 

That's a plus for you all down there. 

 

Check the NAM extracted data for your area and see what the temps look like at each level. I would probably be all snow this run (slight chance of sleet at the start) as the column is below zero.  Only 0.23" of precip though after it gets cold enough. 

 

http://wxcaster.com/models_text.htm

[OUGrad05]

I hope it keeps trending colder and maybe the ICE will move south of me!

 

Colder is fine!  Less ice = better!

I was speeaking of the precip in general.  Seems now the Tulsa metro is on the borderline with maybe 2 or 3 inches up north and 4 or 5 down south.

[ouamber]

This is pretty typical of the models thought. Go North one run, go south on the next run. Something tells me by 6z time it will have moved back north again.

[ouamber]

The snow totals around Tulsa for as long as I can remember have always been higher the further north and east you go. My gut is telling me that's what's gonna happen. I live on the south side of Tulsa..seen too many times where Owasso is in a Blizzard and it's just sleeting in Jenks where I am.