NwWhiteOut Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Starting a bit earlier then anticipated here, freezing rain and sleet mix. Big sleet pellets too! Temp is hovering right around 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z NAM continues to play catch up bringing more precip back to the NW, chasing the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z NAM continues to play catch up bringing more precip back to the NW, chasing the Euro. That is good news, too! The NAM's persistent efforts to keep the heavier precip further south than everybody else... even as the start time was getting darn close... was making me nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z NAM snowfall. I-44 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 12z NAM snowfall. I-44 special. What's the difference in this map and another one you can run titled "Surface Snow Depth"? The later looks way more impressive than this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Good luck to you guys out that way! Hope things work out for more Snow & less damaging Ice! Will post some obs via my Mom in N Joplin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 IMBY: Currents 28 F Nw wind 8 mph Light FRZ rain with a few sleet pellets Glazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 What's the difference in this map and another one you can run titled "Surface Snow Depth"? The later looks way more impressive than this one.Not 100% sure it just seems this one is more "realistic" IMO. Maybe JoMo can elaborate on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 In Broken Arrow right now..getting some very light grapel/snow!! I just got a little giddy:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 What's the difference in this map and another one you can run titled "Surface Snow Depth"? The later looks way more impressive than this one. Not sure. I know the IWM Total Snowfall map uses Kuchera's method (same as the 'clown' maps) It looks like the Snow depth map is plotting all precipitation that has fallen with the temp below 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 953 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013 ...UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING TEMPS AT/BELOW FREEZING. PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAS BEEN REPORTED AS FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET MIXED IN. OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...A MORE OF A SLEET WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN. IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOME SNOW GRAINS MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SLEET HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WINTRY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ICE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AS THE MID LEVEL WARM LAYER IS DEEPEST AND HANGS ON LONGEST. OVER EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...PRECIP SHOULD BECOME MORE OF A SLEET WITH A MIX OF SNOW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 BECOMING ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE PRECIP...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO NEAR 25 MPH RANGE HAVE BEEN REPORTED THIS MORNING. THE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE STRONGER WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND BECOME MORE 10 TO NEAR 20 MPH INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS PRECIP TOTALS CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE...THESE WINDS COULD HELP TO START TO CREATE ISSUES WITH POWER OUTAGES THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MORNING UPDATE WILL BE TO ADJUST HOURLY WEATHER/WIND GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS. ALSO TWEAKED HIGH TEMP GRIDS AS TEMPS SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME DROPPING TEMPS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AS IS AND UPPED ICE AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. THE REST OF THE ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO BE HANDLING WELL AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 SGF mid morning update: .UPDATE...Issued at 947 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013Precipitation is quickly expanding across south central Missourithis morning as a strong upper level jet increases in strengthacross the Central Plains. In the low levels, the 12Z SGF upper airsounding sampled a strong warm layer centered at 775 MB, wheretemperatures were measured at 6C. From 850 MB to the surface, adeep, very cold layer of air was in place.That deep layer of cold air in the low levels has and will continue torapidly expand south through the remainder of the CWA by later thisafternoon (if not earlier). Without any significant warm airadvection occurring, expect to see the warm layer aloft also eroderather quickly from north to south. Light snow observed at the WFOwithin the last 30 minutes suggests that the warm nose has alreadyeroded for areas along and north of I-44.As a result, the window of opportunity for freezing rain will likelycome to an end fairly quickly today, as the low level cold airquickly becomes deep enough for refreezing of melted hydrometeors,resulting in sleet. With time, precipitation will then mix with andchange over to snow as the warm layer aloft cools to belowfreezing.Far south central Missouri will have the relative best chance atfreezing rain into the early afternoon hours, but even there, havetrimmed back ice amounts to below a tenth of an inch. Haveincreased snow accumulations by a bit (half to one inch in general)across far southern and south central Missouri as well, given theanticipation of a shorter duration of freezing rain and sleet.Further north, along the I-44 corridor, the forecast remains trickyas far as snow accumulations are concerned. North winds continue toadvect in dry air at the surface (9F dewpoint depression at SGF asof 9 AM), which will likely limit snowfall the further north thatone goes. In addition, that dry air will also result in a verysharp gradient in snowfall; the challenge is determining exactlywhere that cutoff will be.Right now, latest indications are that the gradient will be rightalong I-44 in many spots. In fact, the latest storm total snowfallforecast has a difference of about 3 inches from southeast tonorthwest across Greene County. Of note, it still appears that forareas north of U.S. 60, the majority of expected snowfall willarrive tonight with the next wave of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Both the 12z NAM/GFS made adjustments to the north and west compared to their 06z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Both the 12z NAM/GFS made adjustments to the north and west compared to their 06z runs. Are we looking to get more snow and Pl with this or ZR ???? also JoMo what is your opinion about power outage here in Joplin with this sir ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Are we looking to get more snow and Pl with this or ZR ???? also JoMo what is your opinion about power outage here in Joplin with this sir ??? Snow, and we won't have power outages here.... other than the usual daily Empire outage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Both the 12z NAM/GFS made adjustments to the north and west compared to their 06z runs. That sharp gradient along I-44 makes me a bit nervous. Who knows where it will actually set up. Morning trends are keeping most precip south of hwy 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 That sharp gradient along I-44 makes me a bit nervous. Who knows where it will actually set up. Morning trends are keeping most precip south of hwy 60. The first round was always pretty meh and was supposed to be sleet. The second stronger round tonight is where we pile the snow up. But with that being said, the dry northerly fetch has screwed us over before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 This early batch of precip is having a heck of a time overcoming the ridiculously dry air in Central OK. Dewpoints are in the single digits here and everytime it looks like some light precip is getting close, it dries right up. We've seen the occasional drop of freezing rain so far but that is about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Springfield: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Picking up a few decent showers of freezing rain with sleet mixed in here in extreme eastern OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I can't see tweets here at work but has Doug had any updates this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I can't see tweets here at work but has Doug had any updates this morning? Just that most of the sleet and snow today should be south of I-44 and snow picks up tonight and should be out of here by noon on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 IMBY: 28 F Wind 9 mph Light FRZ rain and sleet Mod Glaze on elevated surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Steady light sleet/snow now coming down in Broken Arrow, SE side of Tulsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Pretty sure round one is going to overperform all the way to round two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Pretty sure round one is going to overperform all the way to round two. Not here. lol. We've barely had a drop of anything hit the ground so far. Hopefully, "round one" will serve to saturate the atmosphere enough so "round two" doesn't dry up down here, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 There is definitely going to be a sharp cut off between those who get a decent dump of snow and those who get a dusting. You can even see it on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Not here. lol. We've barely had a drop of anything hit the ground so far. Hopefully, "round one" will serve to saturate the atmosphere enough so "round two" doesn't dry up down here, too. Saturation is getting better fairly quickly. Changeover to sleet in last 5 minutes. Things will be cranking up rather quickly from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 There is definitely going to be a sharp cut off between those who get a decent dump of snow and those who get a dusting. You can even see it on the radar. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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