Spot Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 That's a plus for you all down there. Check the NAM extracted data for your area and see what the temps look like at each level. I would probably be all snow this run (slight chance of sleet at the start) as the column is below zero. Only 0.23" of precip though after it gets cold enough. http://wxcaster.com/models_text.htm Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spot Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 This is pretty typical of the models thought. Go North one run, go south on the next run. Something tells me by 6z time it will have moved back north again. Has this system even been sampled completely yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Now if the major snows could just shift straight west 50 miles it would be fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Has this system even been sampled completely yet? Thinking it has for the last two full runs...unless I'm mistaken... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Thinking it has for the last two full runs...unless I'm mistaken... That would possibly explain the total accumulation increases over the last 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Has this system even been sampled completely yet? I'm not sure. Might be better to ask a met. I just know Tulsa weather trends, and models do shift some..it's common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Ohhhh Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Ohhhh Canada! Hmmm, Canada eh? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Any more new totals out of the Euro or are they pretty much the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Any more new totals out of the Euro or are they pretty much the same? Just starting here in a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Just starting here in a few minutes. Cool. Just for fun does anyone want to take a guess at some water equivalents for the upcoming snow? I'm wondering if the colder air during the second round of precipitation can bring them to a high enough ratio to offset loss due to sleet/freezing rain in the first round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 00z Euro "Snow" numbers. (remember, probably not all snow) Chanute, KS: 3.0" Bartlesville, OK: 5.8" OKC: 5.3-6.5" Tulsa: 5.9-6.2" Joplin: 6.0" Monett: 7.0" Springfield: 6.7" NW Arkansas area: Anywhere from 7" in the north to 11.5" in the south Ft. Smith: 12.7" Little Rock: 3.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 00z Euro "Snow" numbers. (remember, probably not all snow) Chanute, KS: 3.0" Bartlesville, OK: 5.8" OKC: 5.3-6.5" Tulsa: 5.9-6.2" Joplin: 6.0" Monett: 7.0" Springfield: 6.7" NW Arkansas area: Anywhere from 7" in the north to 11.5" in the south Ft. Smith: 12.7" Little Rock: 3.2" Thank you. Looks pretty awesome for me at this time. On that note will give it a rest til morning. I'm so close to actually being incredibly excited about this. Lol. One more day...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Thank you. Looks pretty awesome for me at this time. On that note will give it a rest til morning. I'm so close to actually being incredibly excited about this. Lol. One more day...... Just keep in mind that sleet will drastically cut down on those totals. And that's just the Euro estimation, but it does have more QPF farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Just keep in mind that sleet will drastically cut down on those totals. And that's just the Euro estimation, but it does have more QPF farther north. Hey, even if totals are cut in half I'll still be pretty satisfied. I'm thinking the sleet is probably around a 3:1 equivalent. Still not thinking there will be much ice here. (40ish W of Fayetteville, AR.) I'll be happy with my 5-7 inch sleet/snow combo. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 After digging around a bit more, I think WxBell Euro maps use a standard 10:1 snow ratio. Looking at 850 MB temps, they are -5 for Joplin on the Euro before the heaviest precip starts and they don't rise, so the Euro is probably thinking everything we get here is snow. It drops 0.6" of QPF and has 6.0" of snowfall..... Looking upstream a bit to Chanute, KS.... It has 850 MB temps of -8 before the precip starts.... QPF of 0.3" and 3" of snowfall. If we look a bit farther south where 850 temps are above freezing when precip starts... Ft. Smith has 850 MB temps of +4..... QPF is 1.7" with 12.7" of that being snow..... If it was seeing it as all snow, it should be 17" of course. Another example is Fayetteville (or close to there) 850 MB temps are +1 when the precip starts..... QPF is 1.4" and snowfall is 11.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Jomo, what temps does the Euro have for Tulsa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildweatherman179 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 After digging around a bit more, I think WxBell Euro maps use a standard 10:1 snow ratio. Looking at 850 MB temps, they are -5 for Joplin on the Euro before the precip starts and they don't rise, so the Euro is probably thinking everything we get here is snow. It drops 0.6" of QPF and has 6.0" of snowfall..... Looking upstream a bit to Chanute, KS.... It has 850 MB temps of -8 before the precip starts.... QPF of 0.3" and 3" of snowfall. If we look a bit farther south where 850 temps are above freezing when precip starts... Ft. Smith has 850 MB temps of +4..... QPF is 1.7" with 12.7" of that being snow..... If it was seeing it as all snow, it should be 17" of course. Another example is Fayetteville (or close to there) 850 MB temps are +1 when the precip starts..... QPF is 1.4" and snowfall is 11.5" Yeah, I knew the standard was 10:1 but I know the ratio can vary wildly at times in real world examples even during a solid snow event. Just trying to use temp profiles, wind, moisture, etc to make an educated guess. Probably pointless but its interesting to try to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Jomo, what temps does the Euro have for Tulsa? It's below freezing.... pretty close though -2 (850 temps are in C)... Euro has 0.6 QPF in that area and around 6" of snow on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 6-8 sounds perfect!! Thanks Jomo. Anymore than that, and my poor little Chevy Malibu gets stuck:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 6-8 sounds perfect!! Thanks Jomo. Anymore than that, and my poor little Chevy Malibu gets stuck:) Although you may get much less, or you may get more sleet... We'll see, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowisgood Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Getting pretty excited for the first event of the season!! NAM and GFS snowmaps are painting 6-12" for Fayetteville area. I bet we see 5-8" out of this. Just hope ZR/PL are kept to a minimum as I need to get thesis work done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Getting pretty excited for the first event of the season!! NAM and GFS snowmaps are painting 6-12" for Fayetteville area. I bet we see 5-8" out of this. Just hope ZR/PL are kept to a minimum as I need to get thesis work done. Maybe I'll bring some good luck to the area lol? Not sure how much snow you guys usually get here but this seems like it could be alot for this area. Im actually getting excited too now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowisgood Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Maybe I'll bring some good luck to the area lol? Not sure how much snow you guys usually get here but this seems like it could be alot for this area. Im actually getting excited too now! I'm from outside of Philadelphia, PA so I am not too familiar with NW Arkansas' winter snow totals, but I think I read somewhere they average 8". Getting close to the average in one storm is a rather big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Winter Storm Watches up for areas along the Arkansas border in Missouri. Winter Storm Warnings hoisted for all of Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. EURO stays put. 06z NAM shifts south more. Waiting on 06z GFS. Let the games begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Oh lookie what the GFS did...it took a little walk to the North. Lol..did I call that or what??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 I feel like we should have circus music playing while these models continue moving around, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 The GFS has several more inches falling over Tulsa as we get through the weekend (mostly Sunday). Could make for a sketch start to next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 As of this moment, NWS Norman is sticking with Winter Storm Watches for Central Oklahoma, while Tulsa went over to Winter Storm Warnings this morning. I don't blame them at all. Central Oklahoma is "on the edge" on several levels. Not only is there a definite question as to exactly where the sleet/snow line will be later Thursday into Friday, but the OUN CWA is also on the western edge of where the heavier precip is likely (at least I hope it is likely) to fall. A fairly narrow band like that is difficult to pin down even as the event gets close. Personally, I won't be truly confident here until I can see that band on radar. EDIT: By the way, the front appears to have passed through OKC between 5 and 6 am. Temps and dewpoints are now dropping. Unless we get some very bright sunshine this morning, I suspect that we have already seen our high temperature for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Don't quote this.... But NAM climbed back north a little bit from it's 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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