OK / AR / KS / MO Winter 2013-2014

[JoMo]

Here is a snippet from the morning Tulsa discussion.

 

And so the model watching begins every run... ha ha!

 

I've been doing that for a month now.

[JoMo]

The 12z Euro is a lot of fun..... It has sped the front up when compared to last night. Areas along and north of the front (mainly NE OK and SW MO) may get some brief frozen stuff next Thursday.  A trough is left over the west and it looks like impulses may eject out of that. The next one next Friday and the model targets E OK and NW Arkansas on Friday with some frozen precip. Upper level energy gets sheared out through the area so the next one on Saturday targets pretty much everyone with frozen precip. Big upper level low forms over southern California and the Baja. Sunday features the next bit of energy but it isn't as strong and doesn't look like that big of a deal..... Monday the next piece of energy comes out, and more frozen precip for the area. That's the end of the run, with an upper level low looking cutoff over the Baja and Southern California. No big storm systems wrapping up but precip overrunning the cold air. The area around Ft. Smith, AR and points southeast will probably have a harder time with frozen precip chances though due to warmer temps, given this model run.

 

The GEM (which loves to wrap storm systems up) has even backed off the idea of a strong storm cutting west of us, so it falls in line with the rest of the 12z model thinking. 

[wildweatherman179]

I always fall in the questionable zone on a thing like that. Will just wait until 2 or 3 days out to think about it. Gets my hopes up for nothing. I can guarantee its going to be cold though. Lol.

[Wx 24/7]

SGF already going with rain and snow likely on Friday. This should be a fun one to watch. I bet a get a headache. Anyway want the over or under on when the models drastically shift the storm track north or south? LOL

[brettjrob]

This upcoming pattern centered on next weekend looks so promising, with multiple waves/opportunities for precip and cold air locked in -- would really be a shame if any of us get completely left out of the fun. I suspect few if any of us will, and that someone will make out pretty well. Just crossing my fingers for either SN or ZR and not another pile of useless sleet.

[JoMo]

This upcoming pattern centered on next weekend looks so promising, with multiple waves/opportunities for precip and cold air locked in -- would really be a shame if any of us get completely left out of the fun. I suspect few if any of us will, and that someone will make out pretty well. Just crossing my fingers for either SN or ZR and not another pile of useless sleet.

 

Watch it be too cold and dry, and the southeast ends up with a mix.. heh

[brettjrob]

Watch it be too cold and dry, and the southeast ends up with a mix.. heh

 

After eight years here, absolutely no mode of failure would surprise me. It's one of the most exciting winter patterns I personally recall seeing since 2010-11, though. Could just be that I don't pay as close attention during the severe off-season, though; you all would know better.

[JoMo]

And of course the 00z GFS is cold and mostly dry through hour 192. 

[JoMo]

I'm a little tired tonight so the timing on this all may be off, but it'll change anyway.........

 

00z Euro is a little bit quicker and colder with the cold overall. Frozen precip looks like a good bet for all of us and it looks like the trough ejects out this run which leads to higher precip totals. The heaviest 'frozen' precip being from NW Arkansas on to the northeast..... The least amount of frozen precip over SE KS through next Saturday. New system digging into the west next Sunday.... with energy diving in behind that... which causes it to eject out... and  BOOM! suddenly there's a ton of precip over Arkansas with temps below 32. Huge ice/snow storm for much of Arkansas and SE OK.

 

Definitely an exciting run.... Those in NW Arkansas would want to lock it in. 

[NwWhiteOut]

I'm a little tired tonight so the timing on this all may be off, but it'll change anyway.........

 

00z Euro is a little bit quicker and colder with the cold overall. Frozen precip looks like a good bet for all of us and it looks like the trough ejects out this run which leads to higher precip totals. The heaviest 'frozen' precip being from NW Arkansas on to the northeast..... The least amount of frozen precip over SE KS through next Saturday. New system digging into the west next Sunday.... with energy diving in behind that... which causes it to eject out... and  BOOM! suddenly there's a ton of precip over Arkansas with temps below 32. Huge ice/snow storm for much of Arkansas and SE OK.

 

Definitely an exciting run.... Those in NW Arkansas would want to lock it in. 

You dont think its a bit early to say "lock it in" lol? I really do not like ice storms man!!!! But the good thing here where we live now is most powerlines and utilities are all underground. Lots of trees and woods here but the electric company has allready been out and around trimming like mad men. IDK call me a sissy i guess, I have just had some really awfull and scary situations in ice storms, the worst being in 2001 when we lived in kc.....that was the worst!

[ouamber]

Ugh...Bedlam game in Stillwater on Saturday 7th sounds like it could be a snowy ice bowl!!!

[wildweatherman179]

You dont think its a bit early to say "lock it in" lol? I really do not like ice storms man!!!! But the good thing here where we live now is most powerlines and utilities are all underground. Lots of trees and woods here but the electric company has allready been out and around trimming like mad men. IDK call me a sissy i guess, I have just had some really awfull and scary situations in ice storms, the worst being in 2001 when we lived in kc.....that was the worst!

I had to endure a huge part of the 2009 storm and it was no joke. But I have a chainsaw and a wood stove so bring it on. Lol. I've been ready and expecting one since September.

[wildweatherman179]

Friday the 13th looks pretty awesome for me as well but it's still very far out.

[JoMo]

12z GFS doing the I-44ish ice thing on Dec 5th.

 

[Wx 24/7]

The signals look more and more like they are pointing toward an icing event. I am not liking that at all.

[JoMo]

12z Euro is a bit slower with the cold front this run when compared to 00z last night. System #1 is pretty wet so it gives a good thumping of frozen precip (might have just rain issues around Ft. Smith early on but they look to change over to frozen), the focus of more precip is a bit farther north. 

 

The Euro outer periods (Day 7+) continue to change quite a lot from run to run. This run features a large trough in the west pushing east. By next Sunday there is a lot of precip breaking out across OK/AR which would be of the frozen variety... however the Euro is warming surface temps out ahead of this as well so this run would change it over to rain. The end of the run features some light snow probably as a much much colder airmass pushes in. (single digits in Tulsa and Joplin, brrr)

[Wx 24/7]

While the details are obviously somewhat different between the major models, the consistency in the main players is pretty impressive so far out. Just for fun... since it is still so far out... here are some of Tulsa's maps to enjoy.

 

 

[JoMo]

Looks like Springfield and Tulsa NWS offices are tossing the GFS and going with the Euro.

 

Springfield:

 

"Collaboration with the Weather Prediction Center this afternoon,

led to a forecast heavily leaned with the ECMWF. As a matter of
fact, the model diagnostics specialist is completely throwing out
the GFS solution, regarding the structure of the upper trough late
in the week.

Essentially the upper low, currently over northwest Canada, will
sag into the western United States as the week progresses. It is
expected that this feature will dig deeper, and hold back over the
Mountain West for a longer period of time, prior to ejecting it`s
main upper speed max over the Ozarks...after...the cold Arctic air
surges through southern Missouri.

This solution will greatly increase the chances for accumulating
wintry precipitation over the entire extreme southeast Kansas and
Missouri Ozarks Region Thursday night into Friday."

[JoMo]

00z GFS has primarily sleet or snow. Decent amounts as well. 

 

[wildweatherman179]

Well, unlike last round this one keeps getting better and better every run. Heavy sleet/snow sounds great.

[JoMo]

00z Euro...  Much faster with the front when compared to the 12z run. Frozen precip at hour 120 (same as GFS above) with most of it being over N AR, E OK, and SW MO. Secondary area develops in central OK and pushes in... Everyone gets in on the action and it would be frozen. Overall not that different from the 12z run, just a little lighter on precip totals but colder. 

 

Next system diving into the west... This system is farther south due to the colder air being farther south and the Euro isn't warming it up like it was earlier on the 12z. The area around Ft. Smith and points southeast would have the best chance of frozen precip with this system. 

[ouamber]

The 2nd wave looks to have more of a punch and the Euro wants to dump a lot more further SE of our area. The Canadian is jumping on that idea as well..taking the 2nd wave further southeast. Hopefully, that trend doesn't continue.

[wildweatherman179]

Made mention in another group that this pattern we are in resembles some of the coldest winters we have seen around here. A few had decent snow in all winter months. Any thoughts in this being a pattern to lock in for Dec-Feb? While in the woods I saw mosquitoes flying at 35 degrees yesterday morning!! We need a week or 2 of lasting snow cover this year to kill them off. I didn't know they could function at that temperature but there they were. It was crazy!

[ouamber]

I am STILL fighting fleas in my yard and on my dogs..just started them on hopefully their last treatment of the year. Dealing with the rounds of weather, we need somewhat of a SE ridge for storms to really ramp up and give us the best chance of snow, but suppression could be a real issue with the Dec 9-12 storm. The Dec 4-6 storm doesn't seem to have the suppression as an issue, just hope and pray the cold air is firmly in place..I don't want freezing rain. Power outages are not fun. 2007 I didn't have power for 2 weeks!

[wildweatherman179]

I am STILL fighting fleas in my yard and on my dogs..just started them on hopefully their last treatment of the year. Dealing with the rounds of weather, we need somewhat of a SE ridge for storms to really ramp up and give us the best chance of snow, but suppression could be a real issue with the Dec 9-12 storm. The Dec 4-6 storm doesn't seem to have the suppression as an issue, just hope and pray the cold air is firmly in place..I don't want freezing rain. Power outages are not fun. 2007 I didn't have power for 2 weeks!

Yeah, 2009 looked like the apocalypse or something around here afterwards. So I'll pass on the ice. I'm ready for it now though.

[Wx 24/7]

The EURO trended south with the precip. I would prefer it back a little further north. I don't want to eventually miss thing by 100 miles south of me.

[JoMo]

12z GFS, bit farther south... Bit more freezing rain on the map as well.

 

 

 

It now looks like the GFS wants to bring a second round through, which has more snow:

 

[JoMo]

That leads to a snowfall map that looks like this (some of this may be sleet/ice):

 

[wildweatherman179]

That leads to a snowfall map that looks like this (some of this may be sleet/ice):

Not getting my hopes up yet but that looks amazing for me. I'm dead square in the middle of that and its the second time its showed the exact same track and everything.

[wildweatherman179]

New GFS still putting down decent amounts of snow down (6 in +) for pretty much my county in eastern OK through northwest Arkansas. I'd likely shave off an inch or 2 for sleet/frzra but it looks great. Consistency of any kind looks great also. Can't wait for it to get in a little closer range but I love what I see so far!