Sundog Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 That 10 day storm would be great. Ratios would be fantastic. But it might as well be hour 1 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Don Sutherland in the main forums just said that the +AO will probably last through January ala 1989. He also says that NYC can receive less than 10" of snow for the entire winter. Mitchel Volk is also very bearish, and states that he expects NYC to pick up no more than 20" of snow for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Don Sutherland in the main forums just said that the +AO will probably last through January ala 1989. He also says that NYC can receive less than 10" of snow for the entire winter. Mitchel Volk is also very bearish, and states that he expects NYC to pick up no more than 20" of snow for the winter. Just be luck we had a nice head-start in October..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 <p><p> Just be luck we had a nice head-start in October..... I hope that the 10/29/2011 storm was not the closing storm to the wonderful 2009-2011 two-winter stretch we had; just as how the 3/1/2009 was the opening storm to that good stretch. We all know how the 2008-2009 winter was unimpressive until that March storm. Will this winter paint the same picture to this mantra? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Maybe not big storms but I had 22" of snow between 12/16 and 2/3 of that winter. Granted no storms over 4" but not bad for a 7 week stretch <p><p> I hope that the 10/29/2011 storm was not the closing storm to the wonderful 2009-2011 two-winter stretch we had; just as how the 3/1/2009 was the opening storm to that good stretch. We all know how the 2008-2009 winter was unimpressive until that March storm. Will this winter paint the same picture to this mantra? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 <p> And so we now see the 18 GFS operational showing this storm along the east coast.. Also as DT pointed out...in reference to the ensembles of the ECM NOTIFICATION-- MODEL COMMENT ON DEC 18-19 *** POSSIBLE winter ***event ... the 12z euro ensemble is VERY strong on this. Quite frankly I was SURPRISED by this... Europe ensemble has fairly strong split flow on the west coast with the Northern Jet showing +PNA while Southern Jet has potent looking system So at this point and time we have quite the strong signal...between the GFS & ECM Op and the GFS means and ECM means... Nowadays, it always seems that there is a 12/19 threat akin to the last two winters; although, the one last year did not produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 The 0z Euro and it's ensemble mean has already changed this setup between 17-20th. The PNA ridge is over the Pacific, instead of the West Coast. Which favors less suppression of the SE ridge: http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNA240.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 6zgfs and the Euro shows a storm for next week. It has been on the models for many runs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 The main problem with this strong an +AO pattern is for the SE Ridge to over perform. You'll notice how the Euro started out further east and more suppressed. As we approached the storm time, it came further west and we wound up with a coastal hugger. As long as this pattern persists through this month, snow prospects will be slim for our area. We have a shot at the new +AO record for December and are guaranteed a finish near the top. Euro came west Top 5 +AO composite for December Snowfall top 5 +AO December 2006.....0 1951.....3.3 1988.....0.3 1992.....0.4 1991.....0.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 The main problem with this strong an +AO pattern is for the SE Ridge to over perform. You'll notice how the Euro started out further east and more suppressed. As we approached the storm time, it came further west and we wound up with a coastal hugger. As long as this pattern persists through this month, snow prospects will be slim for our area. We have a shot at the new +AO record for December and are guaranteed a finish near the top. Euro came west Top 5 +AO composite for December Snowfall top 5 +AO December 2006.....0 1951.....3.3 1988.....0.3 1992.....0.4 1991.....0.7 Hate to say it..but this looks like a mild winter folks,and now I'm in take what you can get mode..not disapointed on the least.We had had so many great winters in the last 10 years,we were due for a mild one...maybe we can get a few good weeks and a snowfall or two.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Just be luck we had a nice head-start in October..... Those of us inland that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Hate to say it..but this looks like a mild winter folks,and now I'm in take what you can get mode..not disapointed on the least.We had had so many great winters in the last 10 years,we were due for a mild one...maybe we can get a few good weeks and a snowfall or two.. If a blocking pattern develops at some point after this month, then we will have snow and cold opportunities. Even after the +AO-Nina Dec 99, January turned around for cold and snow. So It's still too early to know how the rest of the winter will play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Hate to say it..but this looks like a mild winter folks,and now I'm in take what you can get mode..not disapointed on the least.We had had so many great winters in the last 10 years,we were due for a mild one...maybe we can get a few good weeks and a snowfall or two.. I'm banking on a turnaround later in January, but the rest of this month generally looks brutal. Wouldn't surprise me if this 12/19-20 threat trends its way inland just like this last one did. It's almost impossible in a roaring +NAO like this to keep storms offshore. If the NAO/AO don't tank by mid January, we're likely in a lot of trouble since late winters in Ninas are very often awful just in general. We could still get lucky with a storm or two like 3/1/09, but I don't see how we can get ourselves over 25-30" if this pattern doesn't turn around in the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 http://www.nynjpaweather.com/2011/12/08/winter-pattern-on-the-way/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Hate to say it..but this looks like a mild winter folks,and now I'm in take what you can get mode..not disapointed on the least.We had had so many great winters in the last 10 years,we were due for a mild one...maybe we can get a few good weeks and a snowfall or two.. Come on Keith, it's too early to say this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 As bluewave points out and as I argued would happen yesterday, the SE ridge is really flexing its muscle in the long range and shows up nicely on the 12z gfs. Looks like a 592dm ridge, wow. If that thing breaks 600, the warmanistas will be dancing in the street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 The 19th threat is now an inland runner on the GFS. It will most likely change a million times anyway lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 The 19th threat is now an inland runner on the GFS. It will most likely change a million times anyway lol. not really, because that is what the pattern argues for. Nothing indicates a mid-month switch to something that would keep that off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 The 19th threat is now an inland runner on the GFS. It will most likely change a million times anyway lol. I'm sure it will change. Models always do in that range. Where did that SE moisture come from? Seems to have messed up the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 A La Nina with a +NAO/AO is a death sentence for us and this month is definitely toast. Still too early to call it quits for Jan and Feb though. We had a huge reversal last winter by early February that basically ended that great Dec/Jan stretch, we could see the same this winter. I would not count out the 2nd half of winter just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 <p> A La Nina with a +NAO/AO is a death sentence for us and this month is definitely toast. Still too early to call it quits for Jan and Feb though. We had a huge reversal last winter by early February that basically ended that great Dec/Jan stretch, we could see the same this winter. I would not count out the 2nd half of winter just yet. Don't give up because of a couple runs of the GFS.. I'm not no matter what anyone says. We have 2/3 of the month left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 not really, because that is what the pattern argues for. Nothing indicates a mid-month switch to something that would keep that off the coast. So you are going to believe a model 10-14 days out? I'm sure it will change. Where did that SE moisture come from? Seems to have messed up the run. The GFS is stormy in the long range. That is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 The 19th threat is now an inland runner on the GFS. It will most likely change a million times anyway lol. Inland runner or even cutter is way more likely in this pattern than an offshore/coastal low. These patterns favor the upper Midwest for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Inland runner or even cutter is way more likely in this pattern than an offshore/coastal low. These patterns favor the upper Midwest for a reason. We need a big lakes cutter to change the pattern. Hopefully it's the one next week. Steve D feels confident about the pattern change coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 So you are going to believe a model 10-14 days out? The GFS is stormy in the long range. That is a good sign. We'll see. I'm staying away from all this negativity right now. Who ever made "patterns" set in stone? I'll be back on when the good runs keep coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 A strong lakes cutter can sometimes restructure the pattern so I'm hoping it becomes a major lake cutter but I don't like how the gfs weakens it as it pulls to the northeast, that won't change anything in our pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 http://www.nynjpawea...ern-on-the-way/ Very informative discussion. Lets hope he is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 So you are going to believe a model 10-14 days out? you just dont get it dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 DT http://www.wxrisk.com/2011/12/november-2011-nao-extremely-positive/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 We need a big lakes cutter to change the pattern. Hopefully it's the one next week. Steve D feels confident about the pattern change coming up. I love how everyone is so quick to dismiss Steve D like he is just an amateur forecaster. His 20 min video isn't him just saying "We're changing to cold and snowy pattern" he gives a good amount of info including the QBO on how he think we're going to get colder. I just don't understand how everyone writes him off immediately. His forecast is as good as any other pro mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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