snywx Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Steve D = current pattern... Disaster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I may not necessarily agree with the guy but calling him a con-artist is a bit of a bold statement. I can't see anything he's done that would yield a title like that. If he wants to charge for his site and people are willing to pay for it how is that any different than any other business/marketing guru? Whether or not the man himself is a con-artist is immaterial to me in the grander scheme (although if true, thanks and I will stop following him). I did research on the falling QBO, along with the weakening Westerly towards more of an Easterly QBO. Data suggests that, after a 2-4 month delay, blocking may settle in and provide a bang for the mid-late winter for those of us worrying about the awful pattern we are currently stuck in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I may not necessarily agree with the guy but calling him a con-artist is a bit of a bold statement. I can't see anything he's done that would yield a title like that. If he wants to charge for his site and people are willing to pay for it how is that any different than any other business/marketing guru? You are a con-artist if you falsely advertise that people should pay for your "product" thinking it is yours. You are conning them into believe you created this product, when in reality, another source has created the product. This is false advertising and misrepresentation, which are illegal. The bigger con would be if another met created this "product" and Steve D adopted it as his own and sold it for profit. Some intellectual property rights law fits nicely in here...however, if he did simply get his calculations from his own work, then there is no conning in that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 GFS and Euro in the long range as a gradient type pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 18z GFS is really terrible in the long range. It shows a -PNA with a + AO and NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 He's a con-artist, and I guarantee this is not an original thought of his becase I was texted the same exact info this morning. Ok Trials You are a con-artist if you falsely advertise that people should pay for your "product" thinking it is yours. You are conning them into believe you created this product, when in reality, another source has created the product. This is false advertising and misrepresentation, which are illegal. The bigger con would be if another met created this "product" and Steve D adopted it as his own and sold it for profit. Some intellectual property rights law fits nicely in here...however, if he did simply get his calculations from his own work, then there is no conning in that at all. Who did he get his calculations from? Henry? Steve is a really smart man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Looking at the GFS acoss the entire northern hemisphere, it doesn't offer a whole lot of hope... If anything, it was hinting towards even lower heights over Greenland towards the end of the period. At best, at one point, it maybe had some slight signs of transient east based block, but not much... What I also find interesting (and depressing) is the height anomolies late in the period. For the most part, you can almost draw a perfect circle around the NH denoting the line between positive and negative anomolies... What that says to me is that there basically can be no blocking, as you have no juxtaposing anomolies happening in a north south, fashion... It means little amplification, which means weak systems, at best.. and yea, while it might be normal to below normal temperature-wise, we won't get anythng but progressive weak storm systems. Of course, realizing here that this is GFS fantasy range and that if something significant happens somewhere else, it could have major implications on a pattern change... but this is the a snapshot of how it looks right now... that is a real doomsday statement right there yikesss. your right though this year as of now is much different than the last three amazing/historical winters. i guess all we can "hope" for is for january for bring some snowstorm possibilities because december looks pretty bad at this point and is hopeless atleast for coastal folks near I-95 vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 With the pattern this horrible, I'm keeping my expectations low. For now, I'm still sticking with mid January for any larger pattern change, which hopefully is later than the actual result but at the current rate could actually be realistic, considering that there doesn't appear to be any large scale pattern change coming through late December. Also, there's a pretty good chance IMO that Central Park sees its first sub-freezing low temperature on Saturday night. With 850 mb temps dropping to near -10C, lows should end up in the upper 20s-lower 30s for NYC with widespread low-mid 20s N/W of NYC and some 10s in Sussex/Orange counties. Sunday could also bring highs near or below 40 degrees to parts of the NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Also, there's a pretty good chance IMO that Central Park sees its first sub-freezing low temperature on Saturday night. With 850 mb temps dropping to near -10C, lows should end up in the upper 20s-lower 30s for NYC with widespread low-mid 20s N/W of NYC and some 10s in Sussex/Orange counties. Sunday could also bring highs near or below 40 degrees to parts of the NYC metro. The degree of excitement generated by that event should be unmatched... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 GGEM also shows a system for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 GGEM also shows a system for next week. The 500mb pattern on the CMC is just God-awful. At least the GFS shows a decent +PNA ridge in this timeframe, the two models are worlds apart in the long range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 The 500mb pattern on the CMC is just God-awful. At least the GFS shows a decent +PNA ridge in this timeframe, the two models are worlds apart in the long range... Don't look at the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Don't look at the Euro. How bad is it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I would bet the Euro shows 560+ dm or 10*+ C 850 MB heights for next week's warm-up, based off Anthony's reaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I would bet the Euro shows 560+ dm or 10*+ C 850 MB heights for next week's warm-up, based off Anthony's reaction. It shows transient shots of colder air in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I would bet the Euro shows 560+ dm or 10*+ C 850 MB heights for next week's warm-up, based off Anthony's reaction. It's that bad, but brief. I assume it shows another lakes cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Wow, what a horrible Aleutian Ridge that is showing up in that Euro. That ridge is a major culprit that has been screwing us this whole month and November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Wow, what a horrible Aleutian Ridge that is showing up in that Euro. That ridge is a major culprit that has been screwing us this whole month and November. Thank god the gfs is different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 What do the individual GFS ensembles show for the 180-hour GFS storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 What do the individual GFS ensembles show for the 180-hour GFS storm? Wide range of solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Wide range of solutions. Thanks. I guess that means anything is on the table for that storm at this point; however, I would remain on the bearish side for now. Nevertheless, with the hugely above-normal anomaly snow cover for the Northern Hemisphere right now, I feel somewhat more hopeful for the end of this month. When you combine that with the slowly-declining +AO (it just dipped below +4.0 today), any subsequent arctic outbreaks may be severe and can enhance snow threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 NAM showing slight chances of wet snow showers for Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 NAM showing slight chances of wet snow showers for Saturday morning. Golf in the snow, lovely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 GFS is still showing a storm around the 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 GFS is still showing a storm around the 15th Given the current pattern a lakes cutter is not surprising, but we'll watch it. The GFS does look promising after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Given the current pattern a lakes cutter is not surprising, but we'll watch it. The GFS does look promising after that. The GGEM has the same look as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Given the current pattern a lakes cutter is not surprising, but we'll watch it. The GFS does look promising after that. What's it show after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 What's it show after that Colder and light precip, but it looks close to bigger hits. It's a ways off, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Colder and light precip, but it looks close to bigger hits. It's a ways off, though. It's a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I am going to use this image from the 12 Z GFS as a starting point for this. We continue to stand on the next storm potential being in the time frame of the 15th to the 20th. As is the case usually with the GFS ..the model tends to be to progressive and aggressive with its arctic cold air shots. However..this time around there is some indication that there could be a potential Significant East Coast Winter Storm around the 19th to the 20th. The GFS has support from the 12 Z Operational ECM (which in my eyes is the MORE important factor) . When looking at the 12 Z operational ECM 500 mb chart you see that it has a major low pressure area over SE Canada which would be what is called a 50/50 low. This is a classic signiture for a East Coast snow storm. However..if the 50/50 low is not there then this potential would not be realized...and yes i realize this is the long range .. We started discussing this already back in the first few days of December based on a strong signal from the GFS means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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