MJO812 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Except dt is a *beep* Yes but he's still a good meteorologist. Mike Masco and other mets think the week of or after Christmas will feature a big change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormman Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 thats strange that mike masco is calling for a big change, when im pretty sure his winter outlook is calling for a pretty much warm and snowless winter? Yes but he's still a good meteorologist. Mike Masco and other mets think the week of or after Christmas will feature a big change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 thats strange that mike masco is calling for a big change, when im pretty sure his winter outlook is calling for a pretty much warm and snowless winter? Here is his blog http://www.wggb.com/weather/mike-mascos-blog/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 For those touting the ECM here is day 7 verification... Last nights ECM ensemble prediction control center run: Let me tell everyone what the 00z ECM ensemble control prediction center was showing from last night. Keep this in mind when looking at today's 12 Z run. At 210 hrs there was a low over SNJ coast line .. Temperatures are 30-35 across the region..216 hrs the low is over CAPE cod with temperatures in the 25-35 range..Operational run last night was still in TX at 216 hrs..Moral of the story is potential of a ECM classic bias of holding energy back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Maybe Steve d was right he did say around Christmas I think he's been saying mid-December. But it would just be a delay in his ideas. DT also said the same thing that you just posted. Great minds think alike. I just saw his post, after you mentioned it. He talked about the GGEM ensembles showing this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 For those touting the ECM here is day 7 verification... Last nights ECM ensemble prediction control center run: I'm pretty sure you just cherry-picked a bad forecast valid two days ago. The forecast valid today was quite a bit better: Let me tell everyone what the 00z ECM ensemble control prediction center was showing from last night. Keep this in mind when looking at today's 12 Z run. At 210 hrs there was a low over SNJ coast line .. Temperatures are 30-35 across the region..216 hrs the low is over CAPE cod with temperatures in the 25-35 range..Operational run last night was still in TX at 216 hrs..Moral of the story is potential of a ECM classic bias of holding energy back! Where do you get the control run of the EC ensemble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 The Euro could be ever so slightly overdone with the SE ridge in the Day 7-10 period because of some of its bias in the SW but I think it probably has the overall correct idea. The very suppressed look it was showing the last 2 days or so was very suspicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 It was a joke In that case, I apologize for any confusion. Sarcasm can sometimes be difficult to detect, especially on an internet forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I'm pretty sure you just cherry-picked a bad forecast valid two days ago. The forecast valid today was quite a bit better: Where do you get the control run of the EC ensemble? Actually the image was posted by rainshadow (Pro Met) in the medium range thread in the Philadelphia region...talking about how the ECM has not been performing all that well and the ECM control run comes with Accu Weather Pro subscription... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I think he's been saying mid-December. But it would just be a delay in his ideas. I just saw his post, after you mentioned it. He talked about the GGEM ensembles showing this too. Yeah he said 15 then 18-Christmas time, thanks for showing us your point to! You think it could really change in the time frame you mention? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Yeah he said 15 then 18-Christmas time, thanks for showing us your point to! You think it could really change in the time frame you mention? Yes, if the models are correct about the SSW event beginning by the 20th. We would at least have a good placement of -EPO/+PNA ridge, at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Yes, if the models are correct about the SSW event beginning by the 20th. We would at least have a good placement of -EPO/+PNA ridge, at some point. Nice! Any signs of a -nao? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Here is a shocker ECM OP versus ECM means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Not a shock that the mean is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Not a shock that the mean is different. What's it look like cant view pictures on iPhone on boards anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Not a shock that the mean is different. He's definitely kidding...unless you wanted to clear the air for those who weren't sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I'm guessing the emsembles are less potent with the SE ridge, not too surprising since there is undoubtedly the bias in play as I posted a bit earlier, but there is still likely going to be ridging in the SE U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 He's definitely kidding...unless you wanted to clear the air for those who weren't sure... Kidding about what? ECM OP shows a HUGE pig ridge! ECM means does not show a HUGE pig ridge .. It shows a flatter ridge which is more in line with the rest of the ensemble guidance.... It shows a gradient pattern..versus a PIG RIDGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 ens are smoothed a bit with less resolution, its still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 ens are smoothed a bit with less resolution, its still there. ECM ensembles are higher resolution then the GFS ensembles... Yes they are smoothed down but you are trying to say they show the same PIG ridge that the OP does? I will have to disagree..I never said that the ridge was NOT there i said it is a FLATTER ridge ...a GRADIENT pattern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Kidding about what? ECM OP shows a HUGE pig ridge! ECM means does not show a HUGE pig ridge .. It shows a flatter ridge which is more in line with the rest of the ensemble guidance.... It shows a gradient pattern..versus a PIG RIDGE The ensemble mean, unlike the OP run, doesn't show a strong low pressure near the Great Lakes, and considering that it's 240 hours out, which is smoother on the mean due to the different solutions of each individual member, I wouldn't expect it to show a SE ridge as strong as the OP run. Perhaps the OP run is overestimating the ridge, but this far out, the ensembles would tend to show a flatter ridge considering their time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 FYI, everyone should be watching Wed AM closely, its not the best chance but there is a shot at some snow, the 12Z GFS does indicate some overrunning precip sneaking in as the high is a bit stubborn to move out...note too how the last 2 days the models have been more and more trending towards keeping temps colder Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 In JB's latest video, he sees the cold and snowy weather coming back to the east near the holidays. Which holiday would that be? The federal government recognizes ten of them, I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Which holiday would that be? The federal government recognizes ten of them, I think... oh william you sly dog olivia, that was a good one, from sopranos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 olivia, that was a good one, from sopranos I gave my life to my children on a silver platter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 ECM ensembles are higher resolution then the GFS ensembles... Yes they are smoothed down but you are trying to say they show the same PIG ridge that the OP does? I will have to disagree..I never said that the ridge was NOT there i said it is a FLATTER ridge ...a GRADIENT pattern... It would be rare for them to show something as extreme as any OPERATIONAL run does, it happens but not that often. Not really sure what your point is? I think its pretty safe to say the storm cuts west of us, and I want it to cut way west, it will help the pattern towards xmas, which by the way may end working out for some. Moving along into the end of December and into Jan looks much better IMHO, later next week until around the 20th will be pretty warm, perhaps record breaking warmth. I think the potential is there for a white xmas, especially in the favored areas, especially in a gradient pattern with a robust se ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 It would be rare for them to show something as extreme as any OPERATIONAL run does, it happens but not that often. Not really sure what your point is? I think its pretty safe to say the storm cuts west of us, and I want it to cut way west, it will help the pattern towards xmas, which by the way may end working out for some. Moving along into the end of December and into Jan looks much better IMHO, later next week until around the 20th will be pretty warm, perhaps record breaking warmth. I think the potential is there for a white xmas, especially in the favored areas, especially in a gradient pattern with a robust se ridge. great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 great post Thanks Josh, Happy Holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Thanks Josh, Happy Holidays. right back at ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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