MJO812 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Winter is slowly on the way. A lot of Mets are starting to get more optimistic towards Christmas. The ggem ensembles are also different than the op. The op runs have been garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Winter is slowly on the way. A lot of Mets are starting to get more optimistic towards Christmas. The ggem ensembles are also different than the op. The op runs have been garbage. Have they changed in any way? The last time I saw something about the CMC ensembles, it was that they were consistent with a SE ridge for mid December (which is mostly true). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 The op runs have been garbage. Where are your verification scores that show they have been garbage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Where are your verification scores that show they have been garbage? I think he's pretty much correct. The GFS destroyed the Euro 10-15 days back when it continually showed the SE Ridge and the Euro showed brutal cold which never verified. I've tended to notice in milder periods during winter, particularly when you have a bad AO/NAO combo going that the GFS tends to do a bit better with the pattern, it may still stink as far as storm track in the medium-longer range but it does markedly better in the overall thermal setup than does the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Where are your verification scores that show they have been garbage? The Euro hasn't been stellar so far this season. The same could be said about the gfs but the gfs has been better than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Thanks for the info, I have seen at times the overall ensemble envelope having some difficulty also. I think he's pretty much correct. The GFS destroyed the Euro 10-15 days back when it continually showed the SE Ridge and the Euro showed brutal cold which never verified. I've tended to notice in milder periods during winter, particularly when you have a bad AO/NAO combo going that the GFS tends to do a bit better with the pattern, it may still stink as far as storm track in the medium-longer range but it does markedly better in the overall thermal setup than does the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Thanks for the info, I have seen at times the overall ensemble envelope having some difficulty also. The models do not perform well in -PNA or split flow patterns and so far we have seen both of those at one point or another the last month. I find the +PNA for whatever reason is alot easier for the models to handle, perhaps because it sort of takes the Pacific out of the equation and you have better data reading on systems that are incoming from AK or Canada as opposed to the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Im a little bit surprised at how they have been struggling. One of the students at Stony Brook University is studying wave packets and wave packet energy and he has shown that when there is a wave packet in the Pacific, it tends to mean the models will struggle downstream. There really hasnt been anything significant going on recently The models do not perform well in -PNA or split flow patterns and so far we have seen both of those at one point or another the last month. I find the +PNA for whatever reason is alot easier for the models to handle, perhaps because it sort of takes the Pacific out of the equation and you have better data reading on systems that are incoming from AK or Canada as opposed to the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Already getting cold outside, temps are near ~33-34 degrees here. The MOS temperatures for tonight are colder than the models, showing widespread low-mid 20s just north/west of NYC with mid-upper 10s further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Actually the image was posted by rainshadow (Pro Met) in the medium range thread in the Philadelphia region...talking about how the ECM has not been performing all that well and the ECM control run comes with Accu Weather Pro subscription... I think he's pretty much correct. The GFS destroyed the Euro 10-15 days back when it continually showed the SE Ridge and the Euro showed brutal cold which never verified. I've tended to notice in milder periods during winter, particularly when you have a bad AO/NAO combo going that the GFS tends to do a bit better with the pattern, it may still stink as far as storm track in the medium-longer range but it does markedly better in the overall thermal setup than does the Euro. The Euro hasn't been stellar so far this season. The same could be said about the gfs but the gfs has been better than the euro. I don't check the verification every day, but the euro beat the gfs by quite a bit with that cutoff that gave the early snow to the south, and few few other features recently. I guess the gfs and the euro both have their good days and both have their bad days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I don't check the verification every day, but the euro beat the gfs by quite a bit with that cutoff that gave the early snow to the south, and few few other features recently. I guess the gfs and the euro both have their good days and both have their bad days. Overall, the Euro is the model of choice out of all of them . The models tend to have problems in la nina winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 It would be rare for them to show something as extreme as any OPERATIONAL run does, it happens but not that often. Not really sure what your point is? I think its pretty safe to say the storm cuts west of us, and I want it to cut way west, it will help the pattern towards xmas, which by the way may end working out for some. Moving along into the end of December and into Jan looks much better IMHO, later next week until around the 20th will be pretty warm, perhaps record breaking warmth. I think the potential is there for a white xmas, especially in the favored areas, especially in a gradient pattern with a robust se ridge. Agreed. Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 All stations radiating nicely. 36 degrees at all the stations with dew points only 11-13 degrees. We should finally get down below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Here are the verification scores. And here is a link to the information http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/index12z.html 1st place - Euro as usual 2nd place - UKMET as usual 3rd place - JMA 4th place - GFS The Euro hasn't been stellar so far this season. The same could be said about the gfs but the gfs has been better than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Here are the verification scores. And here is a link to the information 1st place - Euro as usual 2nd place - UKMET as usual 3rd place - JMA 4th place - GFS lol at the GFS. No surprise there.I am really shocked about the JMA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 The JMA has a developing low along the Lousiana Gulf Coast next Saturday that it takes to Tennessee next Sunday and it is very juicy with more than 2 inches of precip in many locations along it's track. There is a 1035 mb high to the north of NY state over southern Canada. It will most likely be a little too warm for snow here again next weekend according to the 850's, but it will probably be close again in areas to the northwest of the city, just like it was with this last storm. If you look at the various runs of the GFS over the past week, almost one run every day had a strong low off the NJ coast on Monday the 19th. In fact one run yesterday and one run from 6 days before that looked almost identical, with a low along the NJ coast, and the high over southern Canada, just like the JMA appears to be doing with this storm even though the JMA only goes out to day 8. I would expect this storm to be off the NJ coast on Monday the 19th, similar to what happened with this previous storm. Most likely heavy rain for everyone again, but some areas to the NW of the city could be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Everyone has been laughing at the JMA but it has been doing quite well with the big storms. At 8 days out it did quite well with the last storm even when the other models, including the ECMWF had the storm out to sea and not affecting us, the JMA was showing that we would get hit hard. It also did very well with the October 29th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I know, everyone laughs at it, meanwhile I have been watching it nail these storms one after the other from 8 days out. Honestly, lately it has done better than the Euro with the big storms that really matter to us. lol at the GFS. No surprise there.I am really shocked about the JMA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I know, everyone laughs at it, meanwhile I have been watching it nail these storms one after the other from 8 days out. Honestly, lately it has done better than the Euro with the big storms that really matter to us. It was the first model to show the Feb 2006 storm. It was showing the storm 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 With the current pattern since October and before the big snow back then I have been watching it closely and it has out-performed even the Euro with the big storms. The Euro has done well, but the JMA has done even better. It did much better than the Euro with the last storm. It was the first model to show the Feb 2006 storm. It was showing the storm 6 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I'm no expert on the longer range, but looking at the models and the overall pattern for the long range, this is my take on the pattern through the next ~2 weeks or so. I don't know about the end of December yet, but the ECM's representation of the pattern through hour 240 may not be that unrealistic IMO. As we saw in November with a lot of the cases when a SW US cutoff low was present, the storm track ended up going through the central US and mostly into the Great Lakes region, and the SE ridge was bent but not broken, and regained its position afterwards. A similar scenario is showing up for late next week, where the storm ends up over the Great Lakes with a trough moving in behind, which may be overdone on the GFS and underdone on the ECM. The SE ridge signal is still there though, and another cutoff low then drops into the SW US, likely keeping most of the future storms to our north/west as well while bringing some brief warmth opportunities, into the 50s and maybe low 60s depending on the timing of these storms. I don't see this lasting too long into January, but at least through 12/20-25 or so the pattern appears to consist of a storm track to our west, with some transient cold and a few strong warmth opportunities averaging temperatures out to above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 That low for early next week won't end up in the Great Lakes in my opinion. It will do like the last one did and head across Virginia and then off the NJ coast. The Euro and GFS ensembles both show this, as does the JMA I believe. I'm no expert on the longer range, but looking at the models and the overall pattern for the long range, this is my take on the pattern through the next ~2 weeks or so. I don't know about the end of December yet, but the ECM's representation of the pattern through hour 240 may not be that unrealistic IMO. As we saw in November with a lot of the cases when a SW US cutoff low was present, the storm track ended up going through the central US and mostly into the Great Lakes region, and the SE ridge was bent but not broken, and regained its position afterwards. A similar scenario is showing up for late next week, where the storm ends up over the Great Lakes with a trough moving in behind, which may be overdone on the GFS and underdone on the ECM. The SE ridge signal is still there though, and another cutoff low then drops into the SW US, likely keeping most of the future storms to our north/west as well while bringing some brief warmth opportunities, into the 50s and maybe low 60s depending on the timing of these storms. I don't see this lasting too long into January, but at least through 12/20-25 or so the pattern appears to consist of a storm track to our west, with some transient cold and a few strong warmth opportunities averaging temperatures out to above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 That low for early next week won't end up in the Great Lakes in my opinion. It will do like the last one did and head across Virginia and then off the NJ coast. The Euro and GFS ensembles both show this, as does the JMA I believe. Jma has a super lakes cutter. http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_120HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I wasn't talking about that one. I am talking about the one the beginning of the following week, which the model does not go far enough out to catch, but it shows it over Tennessee next Sunday. Jma has a super lakes cutter. http://grib2.com/jma...HKPRP_120HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I wasn't talking about that one. I am talking about the one the beginning of the following week, which the model does not go far enough out to catch, but it shows it over Tennessee next Sunday. H5 looks like another super lakes cutter to me. http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_500_GPHTMPVORT_144HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 It has the developing low along the Louisiana Gulf Coast at 12z on Saturday with a 1035mb high centered over Minnesota and Wisconsin, which travels with the low over Tennessee on Sunday at 12z with the 1035mb high North of New York State. I think that would keep it from cutting as the high is remaining north of the low and traveling parallel to it. The isobars also seem to be indicating a movement or transfer of energy to the Virginia Capes or the Delmarva. H5 looks like another super lakes cutter to me. http://grib2.com/jma...PVORT_144HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 That low for early next week won't end up in the Great Lakes in my opinion. It will do like the last one did and head across Virginia and then off the NJ coast. The Euro and GFS ensembles both show this, as does the JMA I believe. The low for early next week may not end up as far north as this one, but looking at the H5 set up with most models except for the GFS, which IMO is overdoing the cold air behind the late week storm, I'm not seeing much showing up there that would keep any stronger low pressure that far to our south. Also I wouldn't put too much trust in the specific solutions that the ensembles are showing this far out as each member tends to show something different, resulting in a smooth mean that changes as the time frame gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Steve d- Stratospheric warming process has begun at 5 MB: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/05mb9065.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 With the current pattern since October and before the big snow back then I have been watching it closely and it has out-performed even the Euro with the big storms. The Euro has done well, but the JMA has done even better. It did much better than the Euro with the last storm. The JMA also showed the boxing day storm on 12/24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 the problem with the JMA is that for every big storm it gets right....there are like 10 that it gets wrong. it is the JB of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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